A new Clarus poll in Washington, D.C. shows Vincent Gray (D) leading Mayor Adrian Fenty (D) in the Democratic mayoral primary, 41% to 36%.
Digging into the poll, Gray has a much better personal favorability rating than Fenty.
Gray has a higher favorability rating with blacks than whites while Fenty has a much higher favorability rating with whites.
Fenty's approval rating has risen from 41% to 49% since the last Clarus poll in December.
The favorability ratings of top officials in D.C. are also given.
Michelle Rhee has a 50% approval rating/35% disapproval rating.
Rhee, like her patron Fenty, does much better with white voters (79%) than black voters (28%.) Rhee's strongest support comes from white women (80%), her weakest support comes from black women (25%.)
A high white voter turnout seems to favor Fenty, high black turnout favors Gray.
Gray's lead is 3 points among all registered voters, 5 points among most likely voters.
The primary is September 14th.
Incumbents with approval ratings below 50% close to election time are generally in trouble, but Fenty's approval rating rising, the trend may mean more than the number.
I'm not knowledgeable enough about D.C. municipal politics to make a call either way, but it seems the primary hinges on turnout and demographics.
I hope Fenty loses and he and that ed deformer are on the first Metro to Union Station.
ReplyDeleteHowever, I smell a rat. Bill Gates, Bloombucks, Obama will come in and save his hide.
I thought Bailout Blanche would lose, as did the thief Bennett, maybe the third time is the charm.
Keep up the good work. I love your blog.
The parents and educators who know the destructive policies of Rhee must be busy on phone banks and door to door to defeat Fenty. I have a slogan if they are interested. The public schools have had "Plenty of Fenty". Rhee and Klein should both be sent to Putin in Russia he can use good people over there.
ReplyDeleteThis race will be similar to the Bloomberg-Thompson election. Everybody is going to assume that Gray doesn't have a chance at the poll if Obama, Billionaire Boys, and other powerful hedge fund managers come in to help Fenty. Therefore, those potential voters who can help Gray win will stay home.
ReplyDeleteI would like to see Gray win and see the tides change with respect to education deforms to genuine reforms. So far things will be totally different in Chicago with Karen Lewis at the helm of saving the schools from the deformers. The time has come to take back education, hopefully, with Gray in and Rhee out!
I'm going to be doing more about Fenty in the very near future. Apparently he is as abrasive and socially unskilled as Michelle Rhee (perhaps that's why he picked her?) and people who work have to work with him DESPISE him. He should be winning this race, but because he is an asshole, he's losing. Whitney Tilson and the other hedge fund criminals may come in and save his ass. We'll see. You can see why the ed deform movement would be backing him. It's interesting to see how black people HATE this guy though. It's really strong. But more later on this.
ReplyDelete