A new Quinnipiac poll in New York finds Andrew Cuomo (D) leading Carl Paladino (R) by just six points among likely voters in the race for governor, 49% to 43%.
Said pollster Maurice Carroll: "The question was whether Carl Paladino would get a bounce from his big Republican primary victory. The answer is yes. He's within shouting distance and -- you can count on it -- he will be shouting. Andrew Cuomo might be a victim of his own excess. Politicians and polls have depicted him so relentlessly as a sure thing that he might be a victim of the 'throw the bums out' attitude that hits incumbents in this angry year."
Most polls have shown Little Andy with a huge lead, so this one might be an outlier.
If it isn't, then Little Andy might want to rethink his strategy of vilifying teachers and union members before the election. I guess he figured he could get away with that when he had a 25 point lead.
But if the lead is really down to six, watch him start to make pro-labor advances.
He'll need their GOTV operations.
Of course he'll still screw union members after the election and I fully expect him to go straight at the teachers unions first (as he has said he would.)
So union members and teachers would be best served by NOT voting for him regardless.
The worst that could happen is for Cuomo to win and Dems in the legislature to roll over and give him all his anti-labor, anti-teacher initiatives.
At least if Paladino won, they'd fight him on everything (theoretically, at any rate.)
Plus Paladino is such a nutcase, it wouldn't take long for him to be as powerless as the current Bozo, David Paterson.
Perhaps that might be the best course.
Since Cuomo took his "unions must sacrifice" stance, I will not ever vote for him. Paladino, the fringy and prickly candidate, appears less threatening than the Democrat. I agree that the worst that could happen is that Cuomo wins and the legislature steam rolls us. A Paladino win would certainly prevent that or at least delay it.
ReplyDeleteI like the reasoning. Amazing how the Dems have so turned us off that Paladino is even possible. I won't vote Cuomo but may go Green. It will be a game time decision.
ReplyDeleteWe will see some similar thoughts in the presidential race when offered a tea party choice or Obama. His only hope is Republicans self destruct.
Teachers and other public workers need to know that Cuomo has called for a state constitutional convention convention for the explicit purpose of attacking our pensions. At the moment, the state constitution makes it illegal for vested benefits to be reduced, which has happened in some states where those New Deal-era protections do not exist.
ReplyDeleteRBE is probably correct to assume that Paladino would have a much harder time getting anything through the legislature.
Sometimes, when people are trying to opportunistically benefit from an engineered crisis (which is what the entire "public employee pensions will bankrupt us all" meme is all about) obstruction is the best tactic until conditions become more favorable. Look no further than the success Republicans are having on the federal level.
Sometimes it's be better to say, "Don't just so something: stand there!"
Howie Hawkins is the Green candidate and he has my vote. Cuomo should not get the vote even if he is groomed for the job. Cuomo is just another pissant for the hedge fund club currently ruining the city, state and nation.
ReplyDeleteI would be happier if Palladino wins just because nothing he says or does will be taken seriously.
No, Michael, public employee pensions won't bankrupt us all. But it is hardly a "manufactured crisis"--the SEC is (rightfully) about to embark on a plan to get state pension funds to accurately account their liabilities. Too many, including NY's, make assumptions that can't be made any longer, namely a metronomic 10% annual return on investment.
ReplyDeleteRBE, you've spent a lot of time cataloging the deficiencies of the Obama administration as relates to the "average" person, so I'm confused by how this post underestimates the public's anger, especially New York residents who work in the private sector (which is a majority of them). They have very little job security, they don't have a defined benefit pension and they have seen the value of their retirement investments crater, their purchasing power continues to decline, and good middle-class private sector jobs are being shed at a high rate. Every day they are reading about spectacular abuses of the pension system -- Rockland/Westchester police chiefs or MTA/LIRR personnel retiring with $250,000/yr for life, NYS tax-free, etc. Paladino's 'mad as hell' line resonates, and it's not just with 'low information' voters.
As corporatist and anti-democratic (small d) as you may think Cuomo is, Paladino makes him look like John Conyers. This idea that the very same people who voted in Paladino would suddenly turn 180 degrees and dig in their heels for Democratic (big d) government, or that he'd be powerless? It doesn't pass the smell test. As the right is so fond of saying, "elections have consequences." Would you rather have President Obama's nominee to replace Justice Ginsburg, or President Romney's? Who do you think is more likely to preside over a more severe version of pension/taxation reform, Governor Cuomo or Governor Paladino?
We're all mad, disappointed, sold out, whatever, but let's "keep it real" as the kids all like to say.
Tim,
ReplyDeleteYou are correct that there are funding issues with public employee pensions, and that the formulas are dishonestly optimistic, but that is largely because, while the unions have been successful in getting sweeter benefits packages from state legislatures, they and other progressive constituencies have not been able to get those same legislatures to increase taxes on the rich to pay for them. As a result the states underfund their plans, leading to the hue and cry about overwhelming obligations
As for people's anger, yes people are angry, and rightfully so. But their anger is too often misdirected, and intentionally encouraged to be so. Rather than recognizing that it is in their economic interest to fight to get the benefits that public employees enjoy (for the time being, at least), they are being whipped into a frenzy and encouraged to think that if they can't have a pension, then no one should.
Wouldn't the more rational and ultimately self-interested response be, "Well, I don't have an adequate retirement plan: what can I/we do to get one?" Defined benefit pensions in the private sector are rapidly disappearing, not because companies cannot afford them, but because capital is strong and labor is weak, and as a result the entire concept of social solidarity is being willfully destroyed.
Where pension abuse (numerically small but symbolically important) exists, by all means go after it. But people are being lied to when they are told that their circumstances will improve if teachers and other public workers are eating cat food and relying on their children in retirement. After all, don't pension funds (and Medicare, for that matter) exist to eliminate the severe economic drag caused by adult children having to carry what would otherwise be indigent parents?
I should also point out that some of the big financial hits that pension funds have taken recently are because, in the eyes of Wall Street, the funds are dumb money and deserve to be treated like chumps.
I as a teacher. endured a terrible salary for many years.
ReplyDeleteLiving like a Maoist in a capitalist society just isn't cricket.
When private sector employees were rolling in dough during the dot com bubble, we got no raise at all.
Now, when the free market fundamentalists have destroyed this economy, the private sector types are angry that teachers have fixed incomes that in this region that require holding down another job.
Nobody was bashing teachers this way when things were a lot rosier in the private sector.
The people that the private sector should be mad at, would be the banksters and the politicians who caused this fiasco.
I hope that little Andy Loses. Bloomberg's endorsement is the kiss of death to his chances.
I was amused by little Andy Lying about voting for the little dictator when he, in fact, supported Freddy Ferrer.
A refreshing moment of outright lying for the wall street supporting gavon/thug.
He really showed us what he is all about.
Isn't he the one responsible for the predatory lending to people who couldn't afford to own their part of the Amerikan nightmare?
Let him ride off into the sunset with his suitcase full of Hedge Fund cash.
No more incumbent treacherous cretins or heir apparent types.
Vote the bums out who are responsible for the current situation.
Cheers,
Angry Nog
Dem teachers, don't be idiots and vote for this punk. you're only expediting your extermination. Have you learned anything from establishment Democrats' plans for you after voting for Obama?
ReplyDeletePaladino will experience more of a logjam if he wins. Our extermination won't be that easy to accomplish if he wins. I'm more concerned with losing my job, then possible contributing to my health care plan, or getting less of a pension. That indicates how dire a position we are in. With Andy Boy, we get more charters quicker, with easier propoganda. Please ruin this punk's political career by sending him packing.
Michael,
ReplyDeleteI hope this doesn't come off as insulting, because it's not meant to be, but I am not sure you grasp how far past the Rubicon the private sector is with respect to eliminating defined retirement benefits. The conversation now is about cutting back or even eliminating company matches on 401ks. So no, it wouldn't be a rational or productive use of someone's time to think that the existence of public employees' pensions will do anything to bring them back to the private sector.
I do agree with you that the very wealthy should be taxed at a rate much higher than they are now, but that gets extremely tricky when you are talking about things at the state level. Having a physical footprint in Manhattan is no longer a vital necessity for any business -- financial, law, media, etc. New Jersey and Connecticut are close enough for firms who need access to the region's talent/brains/amenities. It's easy for individuals to pull up stakes or shelter their income. I don't agree with Bloomberg about much, but on this issue I believe he is 100% correct. Getting that top 1% to pay its fair share (and it's really more the top 0.1%) has to happen at the Federal level.
Let the little dictator start paying. I loved the local rags covering how frugal the midget bastard is.
ReplyDeleteAll this when his carbon assprint is the size of a small town every weekend, when he flies his frugal lying ass to the carribean on his private jet.
I have had enough of the pravda shit that we read about the little dictator and his cronies.
To quote a great composer; "gag me with a spoon"
Angry Nog