UFT Election Lessons

Norm at Ed Notes:

MORE increased the vote over the ICE/TJC totals of 2010 in every single division and outpolled New Action in every division except retirees.

I haven't seen the breakdown in functionary numbers from 2010-2013, but I can tell you that Unity lost support in every other division from 2010 to 2013.

As Norm notes, Unity had 3,000 fewer retiree votes.

Unity and New Action support is down in both the middle schools and the high schools.

MORE support is up slightly from the 2010 ICE-TJC totals.

MORE received about 60 more votes than ICE-TJC last time around in the high schools and received 150 more votes in the middle schools than ICE-TJC last time around.

Unity, on the other hand, lost 1000 votes from the 2010 vote count in high schools while New Action lost about 225. In the middle schools, Unity lost almost 800 votes from the last time around while New Action lost 260.

And remember, there were 10,000 fewer ballots returned this year compared to 2010.

So MORE increased the totals over ICE-TJC in 2010 even though the pool of votes cast was significantly smaller.

Unity support dropped significantly while New Action's tepid vote support exposes it as the Unity shell it really is.

This is no victory for MORE, that is clear.

But it surely cannot be spun as a victory for Mulgrew and the leadership either.

People will try and spin these numbers any way they can - but the loss of support for the Unity and New Action slates is plain to see.

The much lower participation rate is plain to see.

There are many dissatisfied teachers out there.

The MORE caucus has its work cut out to try and win over the vast majority of dissatisfied active UFT members next time around - especially with the inherent advantages Unity has with incumbency.

And even if they were to win over the vast majority of active members, Unity STILL has the functionaries and the retirees in its pockets.

That said, you can bet the Unity people are not celebrating these election results behind the scenes.

The headline number of 82% - the percentage of votes cast that Mulgrew won - looks good at first glance.

But underneath, the numbers for Unity are terrible.

A dramatic drop in support from 2010, an increase in support for MORE over ICE-TJC and voter apathy winning the day over everything.

With Danieslon and APPR coming at us next year, you can bet that the Unity hacks are going to have a hard time holding onto the support they had this year.

Let's see in a year's time, after the first mass of "ineffective" ratings sweeps through the system and the Danielson rubric turns everybody's work lives into nightmares what people are saying about Mulgrew and the UFT leadership.

And then let's see what people are saying about Mulgrew and the UFT leadership after the second year of Danielson and APPR when the second wave of mass "ineffective" ratings sweeps the system and Mulgrew's pal, John King, forces whoever runs the system at that time to fire teachers whether they want to or not - just as King is doing now in Buffalo and Rome.

Remember, Mulgrew and the UFT leadership are on record saying Danielson is the swellest thing since oxygen.

Remember too that Mulgrew and the UFT leadership are pushing growth models as an excellent way to evaluate teachers.

Remember as well that Mulgrew is happy that John King gets to impose an evaluation system on June 1.

The soil will be ripe for MORE in three years after the Danielson and APPR train wrecks run roughshod over people.

Again, there is no MORE victory here - certainly not a real victory and not a moral victory either.

There are no moral victories in elections.

But there is plenty of hope for the future when you look at these numbers and realize just how badly the Unity people are positioned for next time around.

They've promoted the very reforms - APPR, Danielson, growth models - that are going to be used to destroy teachers.

They will have to defend that next time around.

Good luck at that.