Not looking so good for Quinn, looking better for Weiner:
Quinn: 24%
Weiner: 19%
De Blasio: 12%
Thompson: 11%
Liu: 8%
Quinn has lost two percentage points since April, Weiner gained four.
Notice that neither De Blasio nor Thomspon are catching fire.
Quinn is really tanking - even before Weiner, she was tanking, but post-Weiner, she's really in the tank.
She's technically still ahead, but the trajectory for her is ver,y very bad.
If one of these campaigns is sitting on some Weiner photos, it's only going to take a couple more polls like this, with Weiner gaining, Quinn losing and everybody else stagnating, before those things surface.
Unless of course it's Quinn sitting on them and she's hoping to hang on until a runoff where she can use them then.
Weiner still has very high negatives - 44%.
But it's now starting to look plausible that he could make a runoff.
Unless more damaging information comes out on him, of course.
He's admitted there may be more out there.
But who knows?
Maybe New Yorkers won't care if their prosepctive mayor sent Twitter photos of his penis to strangers and those additional photos surface during the campaign.
Amazing if the trend continues and Weiner is the leader by the middle of June. Weiner seems to bethe perfect shill for the Daily News and Mortimer Zuckerman, standing up for the ant-union bias of the oligarchy while generating additional newspaper sales by stimulating public interest in an otherwise dull contest. Who is backing with Weiner? Let us follow the money trail!
ReplyDeleteYeah, they would love Weiner as the nominee. That would give Lhota a shot to win actually. You can bet if Weiner is the Dem nominee, that's when the photos of him masturbating or some other offensive Twitter thing will surface and that will make him toast, giving us Joe Lhota as the new mayor.
DeleteBad scenario for us, but it's now plausible.
Weiner has warned us there are more photos out there. I'm starting to wonder if this isn't all part of the master plan...
There is a growing number of celebrities supporting De Blasio. The NYTimes ran an article of how Cynthia Nixon is getting supporters for him because she is pro-public education. I hope this effort continues to grow. I know Weiner has a big war chest already, but I still would love to know who his big supporters are. If Quinn falls flat, I personally wouldn't care. But I don't want Thompson because I don't trust his alliances.
ReplyDeleteThat was a good article on Cynthia Nixon. I like her a lot. She really gets education issues, unlike so many celebrities who advocate.
DeleteUnfortunately the celebrity support is not turning into real support in the polls. De Blasio is mired somewhere between 10%-14%. Unless something changes soon, he is not making the runoff.
If Mulgrew together with Weingarten backs Thompson, then if the historical patterns hold up, it will be the "kiss of death" for Thompson.
ReplyDeleteYeah, good point. Weingarten and the UFT endorsing you is like a mafiosa kissing you on both cheeks. Soon enough, you're sleeping with the fishes...
DeleteFrom DAY 1 I have been saying that everything is about making Lhota mayor -- the Tisch support for Thompson (while her husband supports Lhota) to pump him up. Also D'Amato. The idea is to create as much chaos in the Dem race as possible. Force a runoff. It was implausible for Bloomberg to win last time. Weiner is not doing this just to spend the $5 million. Someone is backing him. Look to the charter school lobby. What does the UFT do in a Lhota/Weiner race?
ReplyDeleteI have tape -- shaky tape - of the entire debate yesterday. It is an hour and I will try to have it up by tonight.
If the race is Lhota and any Dem but Weiner, Lhota loses big. But if it's Lhota/Weiner, it's big problem. That's a worse case scenario for the unions. Weiner's making Quinn look good by comparison.
ReplyDelete