City Council Speaker Christine Quinn pulls 25% support in a hypothetical Democratic primary for mayor and just-declared rival Anthony Weiner in second with 15% backing in a new Quinnipiac Poll.
The poll -- obviously conducted before Weiner's midnight leap into the race -- shows Public Advocate Bill de Blasio and former Comptroller Bill Thompson tied for third at 10%, with current Comptroller John Liu trailing at 6%, ex-Councilman Sal Albanese at two percent support and 27% of registered Democrats undecided.
In February, the poll showed Quinn, the perennial frontrunner, up at a comfy 37% support level.
“But where she once was brushing up against the magic 40% number that could get her past a run-off, the wear and tear of the campaign, and possibly the addition of Weiner, are taking a toll on the front-runner," Quinnipiac's Maurice Carroll said.
"This poll says there’s a run-off. It just doesn’t say who’s in the runoff.”
Weiner may be set to shake up the race, but in the new Q poll, 49% of city voters said Weiner, who politically imploded after his 2011 sexting scandal and coverup, shouldn't run for mayor. That's up from the 44% who in April said he should stay out of it.
The trajectory for Quinn is very bad:
February - 37%
Early April - 32%
Late April - 27% (w/ Weiner added to poll)
May - 25%
Yes, Weiner sucks up air out of the race, but his negatives are really high, and as the poll shows, almost half of NYer's don't want hm running.
He can run all he wants - he cannot win.
De Blasio is down 4 points from April as well, so it looks like Weiner could be taking support from him.
The Thompson trajectory is this:
February - 10%
Early April - 13%
Late April - 10%
May - 10%
Thompson isn't exactly catching fire either despite all the money coming in from wealthy donors.
This is anybody's race right now - it's wide open.
Yes, Weiner roils the race and does look to be taking some support from De Blasio.
But from the numbers, you can see that Quinn has dropped the most since he starting making noises about entering the race.
And Thompson doesn't seem to be gaining much traction either way.
De Blasio's strategy with Weiner in the race has to be to get that second slot.
He's been going pretty hard and heavy at Quinn as Bloomberg-Lite.
Now he needs to add Weiner to that strategy.
I still believe a lot of this is about turning Lhota into the least worst candidate. de Blasio has the best chance to beat him so Weiner whose candidacy makes no sense might just be in the race to help the people he consults for. Thompson would be the oligarchy's next choice. de Blasio is a real threat to the charter school lobby and they need to kill him off by keeping him out of the runoff.
ReplyDeleteLhota can't win. Nothing in this poll changes that. I agree the oligarchs want somebody they can work with. Thompson is that guy, esp. now that Quinn is imploding. But even if Thompson doesn't win, they'll work with de Blasio. He's made some overtures in the past toward charter operators - he can easily be bought off.
DeleteThe one guy who they couldn't work with, they destroyed. That was Liu. Take a look at Liu's negatives - he can't win either.