Why Weiner Couldn't Win Even Before Penisgate 2.0

From Politco:

Don’t be fooled by anyone who says a fresh set of sexts upends the race — they’ve generated a lot of attention and given his opponents another chance to score points by shaming him. But the most they’ll do is speed a collapse that most New York campaign veterans were confident was coming anyway.

The polls that showed Carlos Danger’s alter ego at the top of the field, independent pollsters and experienced local operatives agree, were never much more than an electoral sugar high in a race that most New York voters are still weeks away from paying attention to.

Running a campaign mostly on his own adrenaline works for now — but come Primary Day, Weiner will have none of the field operation, either from unions and institutional support or a paid effort, that will make the difference in what’s expected to be a low turnout election. New York City primaries tend to turn in the final week between Labor Day and when polls open the following Tuesday. Even without seeing new naked pictures of him, veterans of New York elections assumed he’d never make it to that point as a leading candidate.

“He was high in a crowded field where an electorate was still not really focusing on the race. He had support that got him past the initial threshold of getting back in the race,” said Marist Poll director Lee Miringoff. “On the one hand, he had numbers which made his candidacy something that caught notice from his opponents. On the other hand, he was far from on his way to taking the oath of office. We were talking at best the second inning.”

Weiner was always going to struggle to get one of the two spots in the all-but-certain Oct. 1 runoff that will be triggered if no candidate gets 40 percent in the Sept. 10 primary. If he does, just about every political interest in New York that’s been split between his opponents is going to coalesce behind the other candidate. And if somehow he does land the nomination, he’d probably be easy pickings for one of the well-funded Republicans looking to pick up their party’s sixth straight mayoral win.

There won’t be reliable post-revelation press conference polls for a few days. But whatever they show, the assumption is that long term, the latest trip through Weiner’s libido means he’s probably lost the spot in the runoff that most assumed name recognition would be enough to carry him to. Instead of a race to see who beats Weiner, the Democratic primary is looking more and more like a race to see who’ll fight it out for the nomination.

We may be close to what the race was like before Weiner entered in May.

Not entirely, of course - Weiner defiantly says he won't drop out and even if he does, his name will still be on the ballot and he may still garner some support.

But the chances of his now making the runoff are slim to none.

We're probably looking at a Quinn/Thompson runoff with a slight chance for de Blasio to supplant one of those two and make the runoff himself.

Incredible when you think about it, considering how it seemed like we were looking at a Weiner/Quinn runoff just about a week ago.

I'm glad Dick Pic McGee couldn't keep his hands away from the social media and imploded his campaign.

Now perhaps we can get a decent candidate in the runoff.