Siena Poll Finds Cuomo Is Below 50% Approval For First Time Ever

Governor Cuomo has bludgeoned his agenda through the legislature the last few years by using his immense popularity in the state (for a while there, he was riding with 80% approval ratings.)

He is facing reelection next year and is rumored to be seeking a very ambitious agenda in order to ease that bid - including a wide range of tax cuts and an education reform package that would include state takeover of "failing" school districts (what he called giving the "death penalty" to failing schools.)

Cuomo needs high approval ratings to get this agenda through an increasingly hostile legislature angered by his Moreland Commission that has targeted members in their so-called anti-corruption probe.

But according to Siena, he no longer has those high approval numbers:

For the first time ever, Cuomo’s job performance rating has slipped just below the magic 50 percent number – a development that comes as he prepares to seek re-election next fall.

Cuomo saw a slight drop in his favorability rating, a small drop in his “re-elect” number, and a small drop in his job performance rating, bringing him to his lowest level – 49-50, down from 52-46 percent in August – since he took office in January 2011.

The governor is viewed favorably by 64 percent of voters and unfavorably by 32 percent (down slightly from 65-30 percent in August).

He has a 49-50 percent job performance rating (down from 52-46 in August).

Fifty-two percent say they are prepared to re-elect him, while 39 percent would prefer someone else (down from 55-35 percent last month).

Cuomo is still doing well (60 percent) among Democrats and New York City voters are prepared to re-elect him, but a plurality of Republicans and independents and a majority of upstaters say they’d prefer someone else in the executive mansion.

...

For the first time in nearly two years, more New Yorkers (46-43) believe the state is heading in the wrong direction than those who believe we’re on the right course.

On the controversial question of fracking, the largest plurality ever in a Siena poll has said “no” to the natural gas drilling technique, with 45 percent opposed and 37 percent in favor.

Heading into the 2014-15 budget season, voters say by a 53-41 percent margin they would rather see an increase in state spending in areas such as education than a broad-based tax cut.

While Cuomo's "favorability rating" still remains high, his job approval rating is now under water.

The right direction/wrong direction numbers are a warning sign for Cuomo as well.

Neither are good signs for a politician seeking re-election in the coming year.

In addition, Cuomo's broad-based tax cut plan doesn't have the slam dunk appeal he seems to think it has - not with 53% saying they'd prefer more spending on education than a tax cut.

The reality is, Cuomo will probably win reelection because the Republican Party does not have anybody of stature who can beat him in a face to face match-up.

But Cuomo is no longer the juggernaut he once was in this state - he's got baggage these days.

And let's remember, he still hasn't made his decision on fracking.

He's going to anger one side or the other when he finally is forced to make a decision on the issue.

That will mean even lower approval ratings in the future.

Also, the legislature is out to get him because of the Moreland Commission thing.

They feel unfairly targeted by Cuomo's commission, and you can make the argument that since the Commission does not seem to be going after Cuomo's fundraising crimes but only looking in to the legislature's, they are being unfairly targeted by the Commission.

In any case, it's more volatility added to Albany and it means Cuomo is less likely to get his full agenda this legislative term.

That may be good news for public education advocates who don't want to see public schools be given the "death penalty."

One final point on all of this.

Cuomo thinks he's running for president in 2016 if Hillary Clinton doesn't.

His selling point was going to be that he was a very popular bipartisan governor.

Now there's a problem with Cuomo's strategy.

He's under water in his approval rating, more people say the state is going in the wrong direction than the right direction and he has lost his bipartisan appeal.

Good luck getting elected president, Andy.