While the latest poll from the Siena Research Institute shows Gov. Andrew Cuomo maintaining his 2-to-1 lead (58-28 percent) lead over Republican Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino, there is a thunderhead on the horizon: When a generic Working Families Party candidate is added to the mix, Cuomo’s 30-point margin falls to 15: 39 percent for Cuomo, and 24 percent apiece for Astorino and the Progressive To Be Named Later.
“It’s been 24 years since a minor-party candidate grabbed 20 percent of the gubernatorial vote,” said Siena spokesman Steve Greenberg in a statement. “However, clearly facing opponents from both sides of the political spectrum would create a challenge for Cuomo.”
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“Cuomo’s dilemma with a challenge from the left can be at least partly explained by the fact that Democrats see Cuomo as not liberal enough,” Greenberg said. “More than twice as many Democrats describe Cuomo as moderate rather than liberal. By better than two-to-one, they want to see him be more of a liberal. By four-to-one, they see him as a pragmatic Democrat rather than a partisan Democrat. And by nearly two-to-one they say he’s favored business groups and their positions over labor unions and their positions.”
This is a generic candidate that voters are asked to support in the poll, so expect some attrition if an actual candidate from the left were to run in the general election.
But you can see why Cuomo was begging WFP leaders to endorse him a couple of weeks back.
He's worried that a viable third party candidate, while probably not knock him out of the race, would hold his totals down so much that he would be a laughable 2016 presidential candidate.
As if he's already not a laughable 2016 presidential candidate.
And it's important to note that this is today. With a little work, it seems to me a good 3rd party candidate could have legs.
ReplyDeleteThat's right - while Cuomo still has fairly high "favorability," his job performance remains under water at 45%. His negative numbers go up every poll - they stand at 38%. And its clear from the cross tabs that Cuomo is being hurt by the perception that he is not "liberal enough" among Dems (a perception that happens to be totally true.)
DeleteHe's much more vulnerable than he was a year ago - even if he can;t be knocked off in a general election (and I still don't think he can be knocked off, barring some unforeseen scandal or change in the political environment), he is no longer the powerful juggernaut he has been in the first term. There is little reason for the unions to shake and quake when dealing with him. Right now, he needs them more than they need him. If the unions abandon Cuomo for 2014, he has to do his own GOTV. He's got the resources but that would further erode his victory totals.