The new Siena poll doesn't contain many surprises—Andrew Cuomo easily leads his re-election race, challenger Zephyr Teachout has yet to register, etc. It's really just the question, and answers, about the Common Core education curriculum that surprised me.
In a very short time, opposition to Common Core has evolved from a fringe Republican position that blue-staters laugh at to a position that clearly wins out in blue New York. When independents break against something by a 14-point margin, politicians generally look awkwardly for the escape hatches.
Core supporters and proponents continue to act as if CCSS critics and opponents are on the fringe, but increasingly even the most ardent Core proponent and shill has to see how quickly the opposition to the Core is mounting in New York on the entire political spectrum.
Democrats support the Common Core 47%-40%.
That's the best the Core supporters have here in New York.
Independents oppose it 53%-39% and Republicans oppose it 60%-25%.
Given the trajectory of Core support over the past year, I don't think it's unreasonable to predict that it will be underwater even with Dems in six months or so.
And as Weigel notes, when you start to see independents oppose some program or reform by a 14 point margin, politicians start to bail on that program or reform.
I'm betting even the shrillest of the Common Core shills has to be looking at this Siena poll today and thinking "It's over..."