He notes that the scandal is an insider baseball one, without hookers or indictments in the executive (at least so far), and the latest Siena poll shows "corruption" way down the list of public concerns in 2014.
He also notes that it's not clear if Cuomo administration tampering into the Moreland Commission constituted any law-breaking.
And he points out how, despite Cuomo opponents Rob Astorino and Zephyr Teachout jumping all over this mid-summer scandal news, Cuomo continues to have an overwhelming advantage in the election - he has $35 million in his campaign accounts and a 37 point lead over his GOP opponent, Astorino.
As of now the odds are that Cuomo, while sullied by the scandal, will not end up perp-walked to jail or lose his re-election bid.
But that doesn't mean Cuomo has not been hurt badly by the scandal:
If the odds hold and Cuomo is re-elected, he will likely face a vastly altered landscape in Albany come 2015. Republicans — including lawmakers he’s very closely with in the state Senate — may be out of power. An emboldened Democratic majority that has much to owe to New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio could be in place, and the moderate governor may have to alter his calculations when it comes to what he can get accomplished in term two. Lawmakers in Albany have an increasingly short end of the stick when it comes to leverage and budget-making in recent years. The Moreland Commission morass could be the first, tangible diminution of power for Cuomo at the Capitol.
And that's my feeling about all of this right now.
I of course hope Larry Schwartz and Andrew Cuomo are both indicted by Preet Bharara on corruption, conspiracy and obstruction of justice charges.
I am not holding my breath that will happen.
I of course hope Cuomo loses to Zephyr Teachout in the Democratic Primary.
I am not holding my breath that will happen.
I think Cuomo will be re-elected governor in November, but will face a second term where he will be diminished in power and diminished in stature.
The kind of stuff he pulled in the first term, like the Eva Moskowitz Budget of 2014, is less likely to happen in the second term because Cuomo's mojo will be gone, his Senate Republican and IDC allies are likely to be out of power and all the people that he screwed with during the first term are going to look to get even with him the second term.
That's the thing about governing with an iron fist.
It works only so long as you have an iron fist.
With Cuomo's iron fist diminished by Moreland - with him now a national punchline courtesy of Jon Stewart, with him forced into hiding so that he can avoid press questions about Moreland, with his ability to talk "ethics" or create any other commissions permanently altered by what happened with Moreland - he cannot govern in a second term the way he did in his first term.
I'd rather him thrown from office and perp-walked to prison, of course.
Nothing would be more deserving for Sheriff Andy.
But if the worst case scenario is, Cuomo is diminished in power and stature for a second term and the legislature is emboldened to push back on him, well, that's still not too bad.
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