So what to make of this?
ALBANY — In a sign that he’s considering a run for a third term, Gov. Cuomo has rebranded his campaign committee “Andrew Cuomo 2018.”
The move comes as the governor, who in January began his second term, is set to hold several fundraisers this month.
One, set for Tuesday on Park Avenue, costs $15,000-a-person and is being dubbed a “dinner & conversation” with the governor.
A source close to Cuomo said after securing education and ethics reforms in the just completed state budget, the governor is “more excited about the possibilities to get great things done than ever before.”
Many insiders, including those close to Cuomo, have previously expressed doubt that the Democrat will seek a third term.
His latest moves show that he is not only at least considering it, but also sends a message to the Legislature and others that he should not be viewed as a lame duck, said veteran Democratic consultant Hank Sheinkopf, who has worked for Cuomo, including his reelection campaign last year.
It's possible that being so heavy-handed as to rebrand his campaign committee with "Andrew Cuomo 2018" is his way of staying relevant early in this second term.
After the hardball he played with the legislature over the budget and the many poison pills he stuck into it on education, Cuomo's got to know that he's got more enemies than ever and more people looking to stick a shiv into him politically.
He wants people to fear that he's running again so that he can try and get "great things" done the next few years while he's still in power.
This is a stick to try and keep people in check that they'll have to deal with him for a long time to come.
I'm skeptical that the Scott Walker of New York, the man who pledged to destroy public schools and public school teachers and made good on that pledge, will risk running for re-election in 2018 when he's got so many members of his own party enraged at him.
But 2018 is a long way away and a lot can change before then.
We'll just have to see how things go.
It will be interesting to see what Cuomo's poll numbers look like now that the budget is done.
Will he rise in job approval because of the on-time budget?
Or will his assault on teachers and public schools drag him down further?
We'll see.
How the poll numbers look post-budget will mean a lot in terms of what Cuomo can still do this second term.
It looks more and more to me that Shelley Silver was taken out before the budget vote to keep him from preventing this catastrophe from passing. That changes the perspective that Preet is not done yet. That puts the idea on the table that Preet is actually following Cuomo's bidding. If that is the case, Skelos isn't going anywhere and forget investigation of the Moreland Commission. This would imply that polls are meaningless and Cuomo has a grip on power that needs to be reevaluated.
ReplyDeleteI have been thinking about the Silver arrest in light of how the Heastie speakership has played out and I too have wondered just how much Cuomo would have gotten had Silver not been taken out.
DeleteAs to your second point, if Preet's "Stay tuned" warning doesn't pan out and nobody of consequence is taken out in cuffs, then it does suggest we need to reevaluate Bharara.
I DON'T think Bharara is doing Cuomo's bidding - he preens too much for that.
But he may have done the bidding of the Wall Streeters he's supposed to be policing w/ this Silver arrest right before the budget season.
Matt Taibbi suggested in "Why Isn't Wall Street In Jail" that Bharara is implicated in the corruption of the system and the evidence is looking more and more like that.
Preet is Schumer's guy. Schumer hates Cuomo. Barking up the wrong tree. Shelly sold us out on APPR the first time around, GEA, Tier 5, Tier 6, etc. Same thing would have happened with Shelly in the speakership. Shelly gave us the entire Board of Regents that shafted us repeatedly. Shelly gave us Meryl Tisch - she's Shelly's girl!
DeleteIt's quite possible an undamaged Silver would have held the ground on some of the Cuomo agenda not because he cared about teachers or schools but to draw a line in the sand against Cuomo's incursions into the Assembly's power.
DeleteAs for Preet being Schumer's guy, yes, that's right. But don't forget Schumer chumminess with Wall Street.
Check out the Taibbi piece for Preet's relationship w/ some of the Wall Street criminals:
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/why-isnt-wall-street-in-jail-20110216
"When he's got so many members of his party enraged at him"
ReplyDeleteProbably the funniest quote I've heard yet. The budget passed super smooth. A few people are enraged, maybe. 4 out of 5 are really not. Heastie is in way over his head.
RBE, I asked a ranking member in our union about the "mid November" deadline. She winked at me and basically inferred that all local unions (including nyc of course) must "agree" to what's proposed by the date in November. She then went on to say, no one is writing about what happens if we don't agree. So, what happens?
I didn't mean politicians in the Democratic Party. I meant voters.
DeleteNobody is writing about what happens if we don't agree because the backdoor dealings have already sealed the deal.
DeleteAbsolutely. With a "heavy heart," locals will "agree" to change contracts in return for increased education aid that will go to these new compliance measures.
DeleteI was at a school board meeting on Weds night in my home district on LI where I live. One of the trustees brought up the whole evaluation issue and the other 8 trustees all agreed that it was God-awful. This is a school district represented by Senator John Flanagan. The trustee who had the floor said he would like to tell the state to get lost and forego the increase, but the superintendent told him it wasn't really possible. Still, it is interesting that these changes do not have the support of anyone outside of Albany or the charter industry.
DeleteJust wait until people see how much the new compliance rules will cost - the independent evaluators, the second tests, etc. We'll get an actual price tag for the Cuomo reforms that we can then subtract from the education aid increases to see what school districts really got in the deal.
DeleteThis move allows Cuomo to whore out to the wealthy for the next three years. He knows that his popularity is waning and that a third term is almost unthinkable (they do not end well). Look for Cuomo to push his fundraising right now as he will be a lame duck in eighteen months.
ReplyDeleteThat's a good point, third terms usually don't end well Another reason to be skeptical that he'll run.
Delete1) Cuomo wont be arrested. The stink wont get on him. He has always been and continues to be the guy who plays as hard and dirty as possible within legal bounds. Hes the guy who shows us how "legal corruption" is the new way. I never expected him to get arrested or anything close. When he shut down Moreland he did it knowing precisely what he was doing. He doesn't care about how bad it looks and smells so long as it was narrowly legal. His whole career has been about hyper-calculation and narrow margins of legality/ethics. Hes "that guy." He could never advance in his career on intellect, charm, or fresh ideas, so he plays out on the stinky margins of ethics and does it well. Him getting arrested was never a thing.
ReplyDelete2) my bet is that his numbers improve and he wins reelection. While he has lots of folks who hate him he has already shown that he doesn't need them. This guy, as described above, doesn't care about how dirty it happens so long as he wins. Look at it this way: from his side his ed reforms are a huge step to getting reelected. He essentially beat NYSUT into political meaninglessness. ( it had been doing a good job of it on its own, but Cuomo was the death blow) That's what his reforms were all about. NYSUT has been removed from the stage for good. One less hurdle.
So yeah, elections have consequences and our careers were the price for this one.
Cuomo went from 70%+ job approval in 2011 to the low forties now. And don't underestimate the number of people who want to stick a political shiv in him. They are many. 2018 is a longtime away.
DeleteA few things come to mind:
ReplyDelete1. Cuomo needs to keep raising money because his campaign pays for all sorts of personal things that he doesn't want to pay for himself. The money intimidates opponents. So, even if he isn't going to run, it does make him relevant. He wants people to think he is running.
2. He most certainly did alienate people in both parties and has made life more difficult for them. It is important for all of us to keep writing to one or two of these creeps every day (I send them e-mails) so they don't think we are going to forget their betrayal.
3. Chuck Schumer and Steve Israel (plus many others in the NY Congressional delegation) absolutely despise Cuomo. With Schumer poised to become the Democrat's leader in the US Senate, he will have more power than ever. I know for a fact that these guys are rooting for Cuomo to get arrested.
4. I suspect the Democrats are going to do quite well in the 2016 election in NYS. I am not a Democrat, but I suspect Clinton will be the Democrats' nominee for president and will spur a large turnout that could easily sweep away the GOP's state Senate majority. Jeff Klein's crew will have to survive probable primaries from an even angrier left wing than they navigated last time. It is entirely possible that Skelos and Flanagan will be stripped of the ability to do anything.
Now, just because the Dems might take control of the NYS Senate, teachers still might get the shaft. Just look what the Assembly Dems did to us.
Still, I have a feeling that labor is getting ready to make a major stand after NYSUT got routed.
You make some great points, especially points one and three.
DeleteWasn't Cuomo charging his legal fees to the campaign?
I think the writer underestimates how difficult it will be to "take out" the Republicans and "Independent Democrats" in 2016. That coalition holds 38 of 63 seats in the Senate (32 Republicans, 5 Independent Democrats and "Democrat" Simcha Felder who caucuses with the Republicans). There was a very well-funded campaign by the State Dems to win full control of the Senate in 2014 which failed dismally. I wouldn't expect the Democrats to win the six seats necessary to "turn" the Senate and even if it did there are more than a few nominal Democrats who would caucus with the Republicans if given a nice committee chairmanship.
DeleteHarris - Have you studied the turnout in 2014? I have. It will be a vastly different electorate in 2016. The GOP took control of several seats it will have trouble defending. There are some other seats that really should be in the Dems hands. Clinton will want to roll up a huge plurality in NYS. I don't think it takes a political sage to conclude the Senate GOP majority is threatened. You are correct about Klein and his band of traitors. We have to see how that plays out. If labor gets its act together, a couple of them could be taken out in primaries. Let's remember that this same bunch crossed the WFP last year, lying through their teeth. I doubt those same lies will be believed next time around.
DeleteWhat are the indications that labor will get its act together?
DeleteThere are none. If they don't, it will continue to be a slow death.
DeleteYou're quite right that 2018 is a long time away. However, third terms are not quite what kills governors--fourth terms are. Nelson Rockefeller, Mario Cuomo and George Pataki all served three terms. Cuomo was badly defeated in his attempt for a fourth term.
ReplyDeleteI am quite certain that Andrew Cuomo will run for a third term, poll numbers low or high. He wants to be president. He thinks of himself as a president. He believes he can win a presidential election. Obviously, 2016 is not available to him but if Miss Hillary loses, 2020 will be as open a Democratic nomination as we'll have seen in many years and it's a lot easier to run as an incumbent governor than as an ex-governor.
Cuomo might be vulnerable in a Democratic primary, as ZT demonstrated. But unless someone like AG Schneiderman or someone with real and deep support has the guts to take him on he might get through another primary in 2018.
So, yes, many uncertainties and many people who hate, despise, dislike and otherwise stick pins in Cuomo dolls but I wouldn't rule out his determination to keep running until he runs into some brick wall much harder than the dislike of a lot of not-very-popular opponents.
I agree with Harris on this. There are different scenarios though depending on whether Hillary wins of loses. If she wins Cuomo might opt for a position in the administration because he would be locked out of Pres politics until 2024 - probably too late for him. Unless he just loves being governor.
ReplyDeleteBy the way -- that fundraiser Tues - MORE got a call from a Pres of a NYSUT local to ask about holding a demo/rally/press conf or something in front of the building. With so many people traveling this week getting numbers there might be a problem but maybe a token protest would suffice to send a message that people are not going away.
Don't forget, Cuomo was scheduled to speak at the Success Academy Charter Schools Spring Benefit on April 20th; 6:30 pm at Cipriani (42nd St). If he does attend it would be a great place to demo/rally/press.
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