Perdido 03

Perdido 03

Monday, October 10, 2016

Odds On De Blasio's Re-Election

Telling statement from Hakeem Jeffries, charter school shill and oft-rumored Cuomo fave for running against de Blasio in a Democratic primary for mayor, in this Wall Street Journal piece on de Blasio's chances for re-election:

“Short of the investigations showing anything happening to Bill de Blasio, it’s not clear to me that he has anything to be concerned about with respect to his re-election,” said U.S. Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, a Democrat who represents portions of Brooklyn and Queens. “It’s always difficult to unseat an incumbent when the economy and public safety numbers are not subject to heavy criticism.”

Sounds like Jeffries is going to stay in Congress, doesn't it?

Unless those investigations into de Blasio turn up something, of course - but no one seems to know what's going on with any of this:

Here's how the WSJ reports on potential challengers to de Blasio:

City Comptroller Scott Stringer, a Democrat, has privately told consultants and others that whether anyone is indicted has significant sway over whether he runs, people familiar with those discussions said. Mr. Stringer has said he wants to be ready to announce by the end of the year, but isn’t committed and is less likely to run if no one is charged, they said.

Bronx Borough President Ruben Diaz Jr., another Democrat, also has expressed an interest in running but remains unsure if Mr. de Blasio is beatable, a person familiar with the matter said, and believes his chance at being competitive hinges in part on the investigations.

Mr. Jeffries said he is unlikely to run but would make a decision after November. Real-estate executive Paul Massey has said he would seek the Republican mayoral nomination, but it is unclear how formidable a GOP contender would be next year.

Diaz Jr has been investigated in the past by the feds and comes from a family with a history of corruption, so I remain skeptical that's the guy who gets to run successfully against de Blasio on the morals/ethics issue.

As for Massey, a real estate exec running for mayor of NYC? 

Good luck with that.

My thinking on that is, you want to be from a different industry with real estate money backing you to win (you know, like de Blasio...) 

If Jeffries doesn't run (and it sure sounds like he isn't), then only with Stringer do you have a realistic challenger to de Blasio, but until/unless we get more on the investigations in the next few months, Stringer's going to have to sit on his ambition and wait.

Post Cuomo administration indictments, I'm not convinced indictments of de Blasio staff and/or donors will be a fatal shiv for his re-election.

An indictment of the mayor himself would be.

Like everyone else, we'll just have to wait and see.

As a little tea leaf reading, a couple of weeks ago Preet made a de Blasio joke at a public function:

It seems that U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara’s recent slapping of federal charges on Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s closest associates in an alleged bid-rigging scheme has emboldened him to take jabs at just about everyone—right up to Mayor Bill de Blasio and his infamous affinity for traveling all the way to his old neighborhood of Park Slope to exercise at the YMCA during working hours.

Bharara was honored as “Newsmaker of the Decade” by City & State and served as keynote speaker at its 10th anniversary gala tonight at Vermilion Restaurant in Midtown Manhattan.

The federal prosecutor didn’t reference the case against Cuomo’s top lieutenants, but instead poked fun at another target of his recent investigations: de Blasio, who faces federal probes into his police department and defunct political nonprofits.

Bharara tweaked the mayor’s fondness for traveling 12 miles from his Gracie Mansion home to the Park Slope YMCA—a subject he hates to talk about—and his preference for eating pizza with utensils—known jokingly as “Forkgate.” He praised City & State for choosing Vermilion Restaurant as a venue, saying that he understood it to be “Indian fusion” which resonated well with him because “I’m kind of Indian fusion myself”—but he said de Blasio would prefer the gym if it were an event for him.

“If it had been Mayor de Blasio, we’d all be eating at the Park Slope YMCA,” Bharara said, as attendees shouted “Ooh!” and laughed raucously, “and we’d eat pizza with a knife and fork. It’s just jokes.”

Would Bharara be making Park Slope and pizza jokes about de Blasio if he were going to arrest him on corruption charges in the near future?

Seems weird, but maybe I'm overthinking it.


  1. De Blasio will be relected because there is no one else on the Dem side. Scott Stringer does not have a chance - he is just absolutely delusional. I have heard some mention a return of Chris Quinn- maybe - she'll have the machine and money behind her; but generally speaking people, especially outer borough, don't like her. Melissa Mark - V - too friendly with Bill - maybe after next term. REpublican side - If Kelly runs, I think he would win or maybe Trump will run since he will be free after Nov 8, 2016. Mayor Trump, there it is....

  2. Who exactly at the DOE is so concerned about pensions and removing tier iv and less people? I mean we live in a society where people manage their own lives and work for a company. The DOE is a government facility and the people working there are nothing but working stiffs. So my questions is why are people who work there looking to hassle their best workers with most experience to offer students?? Where are the meetings that plan out these divisive strategies that ultimately destroy the lives of hard working people! The DOE is nothing more than a bunch of stiffs working at a "company" but they are so concerned about harassing experienced teachers?? What do they care?? ITs government money and NYC will always have a huge flow of monies as everyone and their grandmother wants to come here. So again my question is who are these people at the DOE who are harassing atrs, making a work life so miserable for the people in the trenches?? THE DOE are people but there must be ONE person who is spewing this information down to departments to throw out there to our schools and wreck them. THis is my point. Again, who are these people and why do they care?? DO they want to save NYC from the brink of extinction?? DO they want to be chest bumpers like mike bloomberg?? Not sure who the DOE really is. Any answers? And before anyone answers my question like the DOE is concerned about the best education for it students please do not bother.

    1. Hmm... who thinks they can make a ton of money from privatizing public education, and who's campaign warchest do they like to contribute to?

  3. I think your right. I think that might even have been a that signal that DeBlasio isn't in trouble. I got the sense that Bharara was not happy about Cuomo directing corruption accusations at others to score political points, and might be sending a signal to undercut Cuomo's attempt to make DeBlasio look vulnerable.

  4. Chaz, I was speaking with a source who confidently told me the DOE is keeping the ATR pool because they need a reserve pool of educators including teachers, guidance counselors, social workers and secretaries fearing a huge shortage in the very near future. The ATR pool is being kept to have a "reserve" of educators when the huge shortage occurs. By having the Atr POOL THE DOE will be able dispense the pool to keep things going until the DOE can go overseas to recruit future educators. The situation is worse than any of us thought and the DOE is all over it. The result of the research has forced the DOE to keep the ATR pool as an insurance for the upcoming teacher shortage. So, when the shortage hits the ATR pool will be dispersed as the insurance the DOE needs to keep classrooms and social worker offices afloat. This makes perfect sense now and could possible explain why the DOE continued to keep the pool even after Bloomberg left. The data is pointing to a huge shortage if you look at education departments in higher education institutions. Translation, you better have insurance in the form of educators to fill the huge gaps that are feared to become a reality.