Vote De Blasio, James, No To Gambling

Let's go back to last April as Anthony Weiner was getting ready to enter the race for City Hall.

Christine Quinn was firmly in front of all other candidates, the Anybody But Quinn group had just launched their advertising campaign against Quinn but the ads had yet to do real damage to her, Thompson and de Blasio were well behind Quinn in low double digits.

Then Weiner jumped into the race, the ABQ ads did real damage to Quinn, and Weiner went in front in a couple of polls.

At that point, we were looking at a Quinn/Weiner runoff to take on Joe Lhota in the general election.

It was a nightmare if you were looking for some kind of break from the Bloomberg years - Quinn was Bloomberg Mach IV, Weiner's big platform was sticking it to the unions on health care and ratcheting up the suspensions in NYC schools, and Lhota bragged he would double the number of charter schools and add even more reforminess to an already over-reformy NYC school system.

And then came another Weiner scandal and suddenly he was destroyed as a viable candidate.

The race was wide open again - Quinn had been exposed as a Glass Tiger Frontrunner, Weiner had been exposed as a serial perv, and Thompson and de Blasio now had an actual shot to win the race.

De Blasio, having staked out the left positions in the race, particularly on stop-and-frisk and the economy, began to make headway in the race.

His ads helped a lot - especially the Dante ad.

But the weakness of the opposition helped too - Quinn had a dedicated following of protesters and negatives as big as her ego, Weiner had a sex addiction and Thompson had staked out the middle ground in the race like he was already the Dem nominee looking to win GOP votes in Staten Island.

Thompson's stance of stop-and-frisk was so muddled that Al Sharpton said he had no idea where Thompson stood on the issue - and that hurt Thompson badly and helped de Blasio as well.

De Blasio ran the best campaign by far - he staked out savvy positions that put him in opposition to Bloomberg  (a good place to be after three Bloomberg terms), he stuck to those positions, he didn't panic when he got little traction in the race through July, he used his family to great advantage in his ads, and he got a lot of help from the opposition.

And now Election Day is upon us and we look upon a de Blasio mayorality.

The polls have de Blasio up somewhere between 35 and 40 percentage points.

Go out and vote for Bill de Blasio anyway, just to run the score up as much as you can for de Blasio.

Let's see a 30+ percentage point win for de Blasio, the "progressive" candidate.

While you're at it, vote against Cuomo's gambling initiative, vote for Tish James the progressive public advocate candidate, and let's enjoy an Election Night like we haven't enjoyed in a long, long time.

Perhaps like we haven't enjoyed since 2008.

That "progressive" candidate we voted for in 2008 turned out to be a neo-liberal corporatist who talked a good progressive game but governed like a winger.

There are no guarantees that won't happen with de Blasio.

He did meet with anti-union, anti-teacher, pro-Satan Rahm Emanuel over the weekend to talk "transition and urban affairs," something that gives me pause to wonder just how de Blasio will govern post-Election.

But we'll hold him accountable if he turns out to govern like Obama or Emanuel and make him pay for that kind of betrayal.

For now, be happy that we got the very best candidate this election cycle, one we had no expectation we would get back in mid-July when the race looked like it was Weiner or Quinn to take on Lhota.

Happy Election Day - enjoy your PD, then enjoy the returns.

We'll be here for Election Night coverage, of course.

And we'll definitely be here for Inauguration Day and that last Bloomberg flight out of NYC to Bermuda.

Final Primary Vote Tally: De Blasio 40.81%, Thompson 26.14%

From the NY Times:

More than two weeks after New York City’s primary for mayor, election officials have finished counting votes, and Bill de Blasio has officially avoided a runoff. 

Mr. de Blasio, a Democrat, finished with 40.81 percent in the primary, which was held Sept. 10. He exceeded the 40 percent threshold to avoid a runoff by about 5,600 votes. 

Election night results showed Mr. de Blasio with a little over 40 percent of the vote, but tens of thousands of paper ballots remained to be examined, leaving questions about whether there would have to be a runoff. 

The second-place finisher, William C. Thompson Jr., who received 26.14 percent, withdrew from the race six days after the primary. Mr. Thompson also criticized the city’s Board of Elections, saying that the pace of the vote counting left him with no way of waging a viable campaign given the uncertainty about the election results. 

...

In the official results, Mr. Thompson was followed by Christine C. Quinn, the City Council speaker, at 15.74 percent; John C. Liu, the city comptroller, at 6.84 percent; and Anthony D. Weiner, a former congressman, at 4.94 percent.

It's good it ended up with de Blasio getting more than 40%, even if it's just a little more.

It puts to rest any bad feelings from Thompson.

He lost fair and square - de Blasio  got over the 40% mark and beat Thompson by over 14 percentage points.

UFT Plants "Kiss Of Death" On Bill De Blasio's Head

The UFT officially endorsed Bill de Blasio for mayor today after backing Bill Thompson in the primary. 

Thompson had refused to concede the race for mayor until all the votes were counted, but finally called it quits on Monday after many of his supporters reportedly told him he had to go.

Jill Colvin at Politicker reports that Mulgrew took personal credit for telling Thompson the game was over:

While some reports had suggested that Gov. Andrew Cuomo had played a key role in brokering the deal, Mr. Mulgrew claimed full credit tonight.

He began his remarks telling reporters about a previously undisclosed meeting he’d convened with Mr. Thompson and Mr. de Blasio last Saturday morning.

“It was this simple: What do we need to do for what is in the best interest of New York City? … And in the end, the decision was made that what was in the best interest of the city was to unite the Democratic party to make sure that a Democrat become the mayor of New York City and not the Republican nominee,” he said of the meeting. “On Monday, you saw a result of that conversation.”

Colvin also reports that Mulgrew's bravado still hasn't dissipated even after the UFT continued it's mayoral endorsement losing streak:

Later, Mr. Mulgrew said that there had been little discussion among the union’s delegates about what had gone wrong with Mr. Thompson, whom Mr. Mulgrew had vowed to “make” the city’s next mayor.

“Look, I’m a New York City teacher. You come in with a lesson every day. Most days it works out. Some days it doesn’t,” he said dismissively, noting that Mr. Thompson’s numbers had jumped considerably after the union’s endorsement and that the union’s attention had been divided between 54 simultaneous campaigns.

And despite being forced to realize his earlier bravado was overstated, Mr. Mulgrew once again dripped confidence when asked by Politicker whether he thought his union could make Mr. de Blasio mayor in the general election that is now underway.

“I absolutely believe that that is what we’re gonna do. No matter what Joe Lhota throws at us,” he said with a grin.

With a 43% lead in the race, I bet even the UFT planting the "kiss of death" on de Blasio with their endorsement can't kill his campaign.

But as I predicted earlier this week, Mulgrew remains unchastened by Thompson's loss.

Still got that @#$%-eating grin on his face, still talking tough.

What a fool.

I bet the reporters left that thing all laughing at him.

De Blasio too.

Hey, Mike, bragging doesn't impress anybody when you can't back up your words with any victories.

De Blasio Gains Votes In Recanvass - He's Up To 40.88% Now

It looks like Bill Thompson has nothing to worry about - Bill de Blasio isn't looking like he's going to fall below 40%:

The NYC Board of Elections has released updated results from last Tuesday’s Democratic primary following the recanvass of the old lever machines, and the outcome is more good news for Bill de Blasio.

After the recount of roughly 5,100 voting machines and so-called “emergency” paper ballots used by those who could for whatever reason not cast their vote in the usual way, de Blasio’s tally stands at 40.88, which is up from 40.33 percent via the unofficial results on primary night.

Thompson was hanging around until most of his supporters told him to get out of the race.

In some delusive way, he seemed to think that if de Blasio fell below 40%. he had a shot to beat him in an October 1 runoff.

Alas, de Blasio is gaining votes so far in the recanvass.

That's the best thing that could happen here.

Let them finish counting the votes and find de Blasio with a higher total than primary night.

It would be nice if Thompson was disabused of any delusive notions he had that he could win a runoff.

NY Post Says Mulgrew Urged Thompson Out - Did He?

Just got a letter from Mulgrew explaining the de Blasio endorsement:

Bill Thompson has asked all of his supporters to unite behind Bill de Blasio even though the Democratic Primary process is not done because all the votes have not been counted. Thompson believes that it is in the best interests of this city that everyone pulls together in support of de Blasio to ensure that Joe Lhota is not the next mayor.

After the last 12 years under Michael Bloomberg, the priority of this union must be to ensure that his disastrous education policies do not continue. The candidate running on the Republican ticket promises only more of the same.

Honoring the wishes of Bill Thompson, I am calling an Executive Board meeting to be followed by a special Delegate Assembly on Wednesday afternoon to recommend that the UFT endorse Bill de Blasio.

The NY Post reported that Mulgrew was allegedly urging Thompson out of the race as early as last week but other Thompson supporters were telling Thompson to hang in:

Sources said it was teachers union chief Mike Mulgrew — not Cuomo — who helped persuade Thompson to abandon what could have been a bruising runoff against de Blasio.

“Clearly union leadership loomed large in the Thompson campaign and when they pulled the stopper on the drain, down went the campaign,” said one source.

“I think the message was said very clearly from union leaders across the city that it’s over and you can continue on, but you’ll be standing by yourself.”

The teachers union was Thompson’s most prominent backer and pumped $2.7 million into his campaign.

I saw somewhere else (can't remember where now, but it was anonymously sourced anyway) that Hazel Dukes and Charlie Rangel had been two prominent backers of Thompson who wanted him to stay in.

But Michael Barbaro wrote on Twitter that he had heard the opposite of the story we're getting now about Mulgrew's actions post-primary:

@Azi hmmm. I'm told he was urging Thompson to stay in for days. Skepticism useful here.
— Michael Barbaro (@mikiebarb) September 16, 2013

All of this matters, of course, because it speaks to the UFT leadership mindset both pre- and post-primary.

Were they really surprised Thompson lost by 14%+ to de Blasio?

The pre-primary public polls all showed this kind of victory for de Blasio, so I hope they weren't surprised by that.

Were they hoping they could keep de Blasio under 40% and beat him in a runoff.

Well, they almost kept him under 40% (and the Thompson campaign had thought if BT could hit 25%+, they could keep BdB under 40%), but even if they had forced a runoff, did they think the chances of beating de Blasio were good?

I hope not, because public polls showed de Blasio beating Thompson by 12%+  - not quite the whopping 22% de Blasio was beating Quinn by, but still a major hill to climb for Thompson.

Yes, it's true that a runoff would have been a whole new race, with all the challengers other than Thompson and de Blasio out, but the momentum de Blasio had going for him going into the primary wasn't going to dissipate going into a runoff and the headwinds Thompson faced (Is it just me or does he seem perpetually sleepy?) weren't going to dissipate either. 

Stop-and-frisk was going to continue to be a problem for him (The Times reports that some Thompson advisers couldn't figure out what the hell Thompson was doing with his policy stance - surprise, surprise, neither could the public!). 

Thompson had to win major black community support to beat de Blasio and he had lost many black voters with his incoherent stance on stop-and-frisk (Was he for it? Was he against it? Was he both for it and against it?)

Couple the problems Thompson had pre-primary with the momentum de Blasio had going into the primary and it's difficult to see how the Thompson campaign was going to be able to change the trajectory of the race in a short runoff campaign - not even with the UFT's vaunted PAC money.

Now I'm no political operative and I've got no insight into anything these people were thinking outside of what I read in the papers and on the Internet and Twitter.

That said, if I could ferret out this stuff about Thompson, I hope to God the UFT political shop could too.

I hope they were the one's trying to push Thompson out late last week, not the one's trying to keep him in.

Because if the UFT were the one's doing the latter, then God help us all - they're even dumber and more clueless than we think they are.

UFT Bankrolled Half Of Bill Thompson's Campaign Expenditures

The @uft spent $2.6 million on the @BillThompsonNYC campaign. That's half the entire amount Thompson spent, including public funds
— Andrea Bernstein (@AndreaWNYC) September 16, 2013

Two things to say here:

First, why not light the money on fire instead?

Do it during winter and at least you get some warmth.

Second, it's this kind of headline that makes me think "And I pay my union dues because?"

Mulgrew Hit For His Arrogance And Hubris Over The Thompson Endorsement

Politicker takes a look at how the UFT, and specifically Michael Mulgrew, handled the Thompson endorsement:

When the United Federation of Teachers offered its coveted endorsement to Bill Thompson in June, it was seen as a game changer for the candidate. But the union’s efforts came up short yet again, with Mr. Thompson conceding the contest today after placing a distant second.

This is not a new situation for the UFT, which chose to sit out the 2005 and 2009 races, and–as its critics like to point out–last backed a winning candidate in 1989.

Nevertheless, when they endorsed Mr. Thompson for mayor back in June, president Michael Mulgrew couldn’t have been cockier.

“We are very, very confident and we are all in to win it,” he told reporters gathered at their Lower Manhattan headquarters, where dozens of eager supporters waved freshly-printed “Thompson for Mayor” signs.

He had spent months touting the UFT’s beefed-up political operations, repeatedly proclaiming that–after years of losses and sitting on the sidelines–this year, the union would play kingmaker. Their polling data was so sophisticated, they boasted they could “pinpoint the views of Puerto Ricans and Chinese immigrants” and  “tailor messages based on brands of toilet paper voters buy.”

“We’re not about picking a mayor,” Mr. Mulgrew once told Politicker. “We’re about making a mayor, making the winner. And that’s what we’re gonna to do.”

They failed.

 ...

“Obviously the union endorsement got Thompson some votes, but de Blasio’s message and campaign got a lot more,”  acknowledged a UFT source last Thursday ahead of a meeting between Mr. Thompson and many of his advisers at the union’s headquarters.

“It turned into a very different race,” he said, pointing to the dramatic decline of City Council Speaker Christine Quinn’s bid, which helped Mr. de Blasio cross the 40 percent threshold needed to avoid a runoff election. “The collapse of Chris’s campaign and the success of Bill de Blasio’s campaign and message trumped the union efforts on Thompson’s behalf.”

Ironically, some sources said Mr. Mulgrew had wanted to endorse Mr. de Blasio, whose views on charter schools, school closures and teacher evaluations more closely aligned with the union’s. But Mr. Mulgrew and his close circle came to the conclusion–following extensive number-crunching–that there was simply no way for the public advocate to assemble a winning coalition.

Of course, the race looked very different then, when Ms. Quinn and former Congressman Anthony Weiner were the front-runners in the public polling.

“He has no base. He’s got a little of this, and a little of that, a little of this. He has a path to victory, but it’s one of those things where you can’t miss a single thing. And so that was a big part of it,” a union source said of Mr. de Blasio at the time.

Making Mr. Thompson’s lack of electoral success even more notable, the union invested considerable resources on his behalf. In total, they spent nearly $3 million from the union’s political action committee United for the Future, which was run by the UFT’s political director Paul Egan. Mr. Egan declined to comment on the group’s effort, but before it had officially launched, sources had said the group had planned to spend “in the mid to high seven figures.”

Additionally, the UFT placed over 380,000 live and robocalls to members on Mr. Thompson’s behalf, according to union spokesman Peter Kadushin. Members also knocked on more than 10,000 doors, concentrated in Queens and Staten Island, held education-themed rallies and leafletted before and after school once classes started in the fall, among other activities, he said.

Mr. Kadushin noted that Mr. Thompson was at 10 percent in the polls when the union endorsed him on June 19. He finished at 26 percent, with the possibility of a runoff–a decent finish but not enough to stop Mr. de Balsio, who likely received a large chunk of UFT members’ votes as well.

Some said that Mr. Mulgrew’s biggest mistake was not his candidate, but his tenor.

“There was a little too much bravado that held them to a higher standard and they didn’t need it,” mused one rival labor leader, who said late last week that he expected the UFT to jump on board soon. “I think the last thing the UFT would want would be to fail to support a winner.”

I think the cockiness around the endorsement was the biggest problem.

The endorsement of Thompson, it made some sort of sense from a strategic point of view at the time, with Weiner/Quinn running at the top of the race.

I thought Weiner might fade if given some scrutiny, so I would have held the endorsement announcement a while longer than they did, but I can see why they made the call they did - their political prognostications about de Blasio's chances were apt at the time.

That said, Mulgrew's arrogance and cockiness over the whole thing - we "make winners," the next mayor has to go through 52 Broadway, blah blah blah - that was the biggest problem with how the UFT handled this primary race.

They set the expectations and now they're being held to them.

Did they make a winner?

Nope.

Certainly they put Thompson into contention. 

As the article notes, he went from 10% in the polls before the endorsement to 26% afterwards.

That increase in support isn't all due to the UFT's operations - remember Weiner's support dropped from the low 20's to under 5% in the actual primary vote during that time period and we can assume some of that support went to Thompson - but in large measure it was the UFT that put Thompson into contention.

Had they been a little more humble about the endorsement, they wouldn't be mocked in the press they way they are now for Thompson's loss.

Alas, the words "humble" and "Mulgew" do not belong in the same sentence.

It would be nice if Mulgrew and the UFT leadership learned something from this episode, but my 13 years experience with them tells me this will not happen.

They will go on like nothing happened and Mulgrew will still have that insufferable sneer on his face.

It is just like Groundhog Day, the Movie - only in the end, nothing will change.

What Was The UFT's Role In Thompson's Concession?

Two conflicting views on whether the UFT pushed Thompson to stay in the race until all the votes were counted or urged him to concede to de Blasio:

Cappell says Mulgrew was "instrumental" in today's announcement. #nyc2013
— Azi Paybarah (@Azi) September 16, 2013

@Azi hmmm. I'm told he was urging Thompson to stay in for days. Skepticism useful here.
— Michael Barbaro (@mikiebarb) September 16, 2013

Publicly, Mulgrew's words seemed contained and circumspect (I'm paraphrasing: "we stand behind the candidate we endorsed...until all the votes are counted...")

I am not as adept a UFT tea leaf reader as Norm Scott, but I took the those words almost at face value.

It seemed to me that after primary night, when both Weingarten and Mulgrew still were speaking forcefully about standing behind Thompson, Weingarten herself and the UFT as an organization got kinda quiet around the race.

Yeah, Thompson had his meeting with supporters at 52 Broadway and yeah, Mulgrew was standing with him at the press conference after Thompson announced his intention of staying in, but again, neither of these circumstances led me to believe that Mulgrew was urging Thompson to stay in.

If anything, the muted public response from the UFT/AFT led me to think they were just wanting Thompson to go away after the primary but didn't want to be seen pushing him out.

Today we get two competing views about the UFT's role in Thompson's decision.

One says the UFT leadership indeed did urge Thompson out.

The other, from Michael Barbaro at the Times, says Mulgrew was urging Thompson to stay in longer.

This matters to teachers, of course, because if Mulgrew was urging Thompson to stick around, even as Thompson is starting to think about getting out, that's the sort of thing a politician might hold against the UFT.

That's the sort of thing that could come back to haunt us later on if and when de Blasio is elected mayor.

So any theories out there on what you think the UFT's role in Thompson's decision was today?

Were they urging him to stay in or were they pushing him out?

And whatever you think they were doing, what do you think was the motivation behind the actions?

One final question - what was Cuomo's role here?

Did he just want to put an end to this standoff so that there's no mess in his political backyard (as one writer, can't remember who now) put it?

Or did he have ulterior motives beyond that?

Bill Thompson To Concede Mayor's Race

From Politico:

New York City mayoral hopeful Bill Thompson is set to concede to candidate Bill de Blasio on Monday morning, preventing a runoff in the city’s Democratic primary, the Associated Press reported, citing two sources.

Thompson, the former city comptroller, is expected to drop out and endorse the more liberal de Blasio during an 11 a.m. news conference at City Hall. De Blasio earned a little more than 40 percent of the vote in last week’s primary — just enough to avoid a run-off — but Thompson hasn’t yet conceded as outstanding ballots continue to be counted.

Thompson is slated to appear at the presser — described as a “unification rally” — with de Blasio and New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who has played a key role in seeking to end the primary, according to reports. Cuomo’s level of involvement in the race since the primary is rare for him.

Cuomo engineers Thompson out of the race.

What will Cuomo want in return for this "generosity"?

Cuomo doesn't do anything for free.

More on this later.

Paradegoers Say They Prefer De Blasio Over Thompson

The Daily News covered how the mayoral candidates were perceived at the Mexican Day Parade yesterday:

Many paradegoers from the neighborhood said they preferred de Blasio.

“I live down the block from Bill Thompson and he never even says good morning,” Harlem resident Zena Jennings said.

Another supporter, Chet Why, said de Blasio’s multiracial family mattered.

“I don’t have to explain my angst about raising a black son in New York City,” he said.

Let's say de Blasio does fall below 40% and Thompson forces a runoff.

Does Thompson really think he can win that runoff?

Does he think all the unions that have endorsed de Blasio and all the people that have supported de Blasio will change their support to Thompson in a runoff?

I dunno, I've been following the race pretty closely, I know that the public polls all showed Thompson losing a runoff to de Blasio by at least 12 percentage points.

It's true that Quinn was losing a runoff to de Blasio by a much larger margin, but 12 points is nothing to sneeze at, not when a runoff election would be held on Oct 1 and it's now September 16.

Thomspon has no money to spend, he's been muted on the trail, holding very few public appearances, while de Blasio has been all over the place garnering good press wherever he goes.

Bill Thompson is a fool if he thinks he's anything but a longshot to beat de Blasio at this point.

Even Thompson's behavior during this intermittent stage has been strange - he could be holding lots of public appearances and trying to rally supporters.

Instead, he's mostly stayed to himself, only venturing out once in a while for an appearance here or there.

The cynic in me says he's holding out not because he thinks he can win but because he wants to hurt  de Blasio.

Maybe it's wounded pride, maybe it's like Norm Scott says and Thompson's on the take from the GOP (D'amato and Tisch backing him does lend credence to that theory.)

Either way, he's hurting de Blasio by sticking around, he certainly isn't helping himself by how he's running things, and in the end, most people around the city seem to just want him to go away.

Can Joe Lhota Win The Race For Mayor?

A tweet from Michael Barbaro:

I'm hearing from a surprising number of Manhattan Democrats who say they are open to voting for Lhota, just need more information.
— Michael Barbaro (@mikiebarb) September 15, 2013

I don't know many - or actually any - Democrats who say they are open to voting for Lhota.

But I'm also not writing a story for the Times in which I want to frame an article with: "Manhattan Dems Say They Are Open To Voting For Lhota."

Barbaro is.

That said, I do not doubt for a minute that Lhota, given the right circumstances, could be the next mayor of New York City.

The de Blasio campaign knows this too.

They didn't run the savviest primary campaign we've seen since Obama in '08 to suddenly turn clueless in the general.

They will try and turn him into Rudy III and/or Bloomberg IV and capitalize on the Bloomberg fatigue people are having these days.

Poll after poll is showing that about 2/3rds of New Yorkers want the next mayor to go in a different direction than Bloomberg on policy.

De Blasio can win handily if he can get people to realize that Lhota wants more of the Bloomberg/Giuliani policies, especially on the economy, on police issues, on education, in real estate.

Lhtoa has been going around this last week saying "I am not Giuliani.  I am not Bloomberg."

That he feels the need to do this leads me to believe their internal polls are showing them that's how people see him.

And they should see him that way - those are his policy stances.

Stop-and-frisk?

Loves it!

Charter schools and schools closures?

Gotta have more of those!

Affordable housing for working and middle class New Yorkers?

Screw 'em!  Let 'em move to Yonkers!

A Lhota administration would be the start of a third decade of some very harsh, very punitive policies here in NYC.

Now I dunno, de Blasio may turn out to be Obama and do the exact opposite of everything he promised in the primary.

But you can be sure Lhota will do exactly as he is telling people he will do.

Close schools.

Expand charters.

Screw the working and middle class on housing.

Sell out to the real estate interests.

Keep stop-and-frisk and the other authoritarian policing policies Bloomberg and Kelly are so fond of.

The de Blasio campaign needs to start getting this message about Lhota out right now.

One of the problems with Thompson still hanging around is that de Blasio can't turn to Lhota completely just yet.

Once again, Bill Thompson, ostensible Democrat, seems to be helping out the Republicans and corporatists.

Nonetheless you out there can help by talking the race up at school and at work.

Let people know what Lhota is about.

Let them know that if they liked Bloomberg's reign, they'll love Lhota's.

Let them know, too, about his temperament issues.

Let them know how he challenged a 77 year old man to a fight last year at an MTA board meet.

See if people like that sort of thing in their mayor.

Lhota is a loose cannon, he says stupid things (calling Port Authority police "mall cops," for example), he does stupid things (push a reporter outside City Hall back during the Giuliani administration.)

The quicker that meme gets out there about Lhota, the better.

It happens to be truthful.

So start getting that message out to people.

I know I do all the time - both through the blog and in person.

Like Tip O'Neill said, it's all local.

Mark Green On Why Thompson Is Not Calling It Quits Yet

Bill Thompson said again yesterday that he is going to stay in the race until all votes are counted by the BOE.

Thompson was more than 14 percentage pints down to Bill de Blasio in last Tuesday's primary vote and de Blasio has continued to rack up votes as the last of the machine ballots have been tallied.

De Blasio currently has 40.3% of the votes in the primary.

According to various reports, de Blasio has to get somewhere between 31% and 37% of the paper ballots and absentee ballots to hold on to his 40% total.

The chances of de Blasio falling below 40% at this stage of the count, while not impossible, are improbable.

Many of the outstanding ballots are coming from areas where de Blasio won lots of votes.

So Thompson's chances of getting to a runoff against de Blasio are not that great.

Mark Green has an idea why Thompson is still hanging on:

@azi Let's understand Thomp's wait for final count after 6 years running for mayor: "To leave public life is to die a little."- Dean Acheson
— Mark Green (@markjgreen) September 15, 2013

Well, if anybody should know about this, it's Mark Green.

You might say Anthony Weiner as well.

I always wonder why it's so difficult for some of these politicians to envision a life outside of politics or public life.

Perhaps it's as Acheson said - it's means having to come to grips with a time in their lives that will be no more.

If Thompson Wants To Stay In Race, Why No Public Events? (UPDATED - 5:30 PM)

Thompson team may not have much money to campaign, but it's no excuse for two days with no public events. He can walk the streets for free.
— Michael Barbaro (@mikiebarb) September 13, 2013

A good point.

Just as in 2009 when Thompson ran a terrible campaign - some days not even holding campaign events - Thompson is back to making questionable decisions regarding the 2013 campaign that might have you scratching your head.

He won't drop out of the race, won't concede by midnight tonight in order to call off a possible runoff, but he also isn't campaigning in public, isn't holding any public events, isn't trying to keep some momentum going for the campaign.

What's the point of trying to stay in the race if he lets all of the momentum and press coverage go to de Blasio?

A confident Bill de Blasio brushed off suggestions that the Democratic nomination is in limbo, telling reporters this afternoon that he’s moving full steam ahead, regardless of the final outcome of the mayoral race’s count.

“I don’t feel like I’m in limbo,” declared Mr. de Blasio, speaking to reporters at a lively rally in Brooklyn celebrating a judge’s ruling to keep Long Island College Hospital open indefinitely, to supporters’ enthusiastic applause.

“Can I ask the audience, ‘Do I look like a guy in limbo?’” he asked them.

“No!” they shouted back.

“We are moving forward to another election. You can fill in the blank … because something has to still play out here. But to us it’s equal. We are moving forward to the next round of this election, one way or another. And we’re very comfortable with that reality,” Mr. de Blasio continued.

Yesterday de Blasio held a "unity rally" in which former Christine Quinn supporters announced they were now supporting Bill de Blasio.

Meanwhile Thompson slunk in the back door at UFT headquarters to meet with supporters about his plans going forward, then came outside to make a statement that he was still in the race.

Then he left, without taking any questions, disappearing into the night.

If Thompson really thinks he can win a race against de Blasio, that de Blasio will fall below 40% and Thompson can re-energize his own supporters and bring on board new ones in a runoff race against de Blasio, shouldn't he be having some public events or something?

Makes no sense to me.

Does it make any sense to you?

Maybe I'm missing something here.

UPDATE: Azi Paybarah may have an explanation for what Thompson is doing:

Bill Thompson has until midnight tonight to officially concede the Democratic nomination for mayor, after which the Board of Elections begins the formal process that will place his name on the ballots for a run-off election on October 1.

The deadline comes as Bill de Blasio hovers just above the 40 percent threshold needed to win the nomination outright, with thousands of votes still to be counted.

Thompson has repeatedly expressed his desire for the board to count every vote, including in a statement sent to reporters this afternoon, indicating his intention to keep his campaign alive, even as some supporters begin to defect to de Blasio's campaign.

So, barring a sudden turn, it looks likely Thompson's name will appear on the run-off ballot. Whether he actively campaigns is another matter. Even after tonight's deadline, Thompson could decide at any time to end his campaign and throw his support to de Blasio.

It's not at all uncommon for candidates whose names are on the ballot to end their candidacies before an election.

Perhaps most notably, it happened in 2002, when Andrew Cuomo was running for governor against Carl McCall.

Days before the primary, Cuomo declared an end to his campaign, backing McCall in the name of unity, and avoiding (sort of) what would have been a crushing defeat. Cuomo then refused to campaign in the general election on the line of the Liberal Party, which effectively died as a result, when it failed to pick up the 50,000 votes needed to maintain its automatic ballot status.

Thompson and his remaining supporters are saying, for now, that they'll keep running until every vote is counted.

The stakes would be higher for Thompson if he was solely responsible for initiating another citywide election, an expensive and involved process that costs the city tens of millions of dollars. But with none of the Democratic public advocate candidates reaching 40 percent, the Board of Elections is obliged to hold a run-off anyway.

By letting the midnight deadline pass, Thompson keeps all his options open.

That explanation puts some things in perspective.

They're holding on until the count is done, but they've essentially suspended the campaig.

It's the formality of the thing - get all the votes counted.

If de Blasio's below 40% at that point, we might start campaigning again.

If not (and he probably won't be), then we won't.

That's the best rationale I can come up with for what they're doing.

Mulgrew On Thompson's Decision To Forge On

From Politicker:

Mr. Thompson and his backers, at a private strategy session tonight at the United Federation of Teachers headquarters, decided to press forward, despite mounting pressure by other union officials, Democratic leaders–and even some of his former supporters–to drop his bid.

“The first step in that is machine canvass on Friday and Saturday, and then we’ll go from there,” he said. “We believe that the votes should be counted. We believe that people should be heard.”
UFT President Michael Mulgrew defended the decision.

“Listen, I’m willing to support the candidate who we have endorsed and I am willing to follow the path which he has asked us to do at this point. We’re going to wait the two days. And we want to see the canvass–the machine’s canvass,” he said.

Again, not exactly a ringing call to arms from Mulgrew.

We'll support you - for now...

BTW, de Blasio only has to get 31% of the outstanding ballots to avoid a runoff.

There are 78,491 uncounted ballots.

All Thompson is doing here by stringing this out is damaging de Blasio.

Quite frankly, that may be his intent.

Bill Thompson Refuses To Withdraw From The Race

So Thompson emerged defiant from his meeting at 52 Broadway tonight:

Bill Thompson said Thursday night that he will not concede the Democratic primary for mayor until the votes are counted. 

Thompson emerged from a meeting with top party leaders to say he'll stay in the game at least until the Board of Elections does a recanvass of the voting machine results from Tuesday's primary.

"It continues to become clearer and clearer that there are tens of thousands of votes that are out there. We believe that the votes should be counted. The first step in that is the machine canvass on Friday and Saturday. And then we'll go from there," the ex-controller said.

"But that's the first step. We believe that the votes should be counted. We believe that people should be heard. That's it."

Thompson pulled 26.16% of the primary night vote to Bill de Blasio's 40.13%, per unofficial BOE tallies, with more than 78,000 paper ballots still out.

The decision by Thompson, who left without taking questions, Durkin said, mean he will pass the Friday midnight deadline to withdraw from an Oct. 1 runoff.

There are 78,491 uncounted ballots.

Thompson trails de Blasio by 91,000+ votes.

He cannot beat de Blasio outright.

WNYC looked at how many of those uncounted ballots would have to go Thompson's way for de Blasio to fall below 40%.

It's a lot.

And yet, Thompson is sticking around, defiant to the end.

Back in 2009, it was reported that Mayor Bloomberg was steering millions Thompson's way in the form of city subsidies and philanthropy for his wife's museum.

This was at the same time Thompson was running a very anemic campaign against Bloomberg.

Almost like he was running a bad campaign on purpose because, well, Bloomberg was paying him to do so.

Now here he is, trying to stay in a race he cannot win in order to do as much damage as he can to the eventual nominee, Bill de Blasio - the guy Bloomberg hates and doesn't want to win.

Again, almost as if Thompson is doing Bloomberg's work for him.

Does Thompson really think he can win a runoff against de Blasio, given that de Blasio won every demographic group, including black voters, the unions are all lining up with de Blasio and Thompson's got no money and will have a difficult time raising funds?

He cannot think that.

So what's he staying in for, other than to do as much damage to de Blasio as he can?

Bill Thompson, once again trying to ensure New York City has a corporatist mayor,

In 2009, he helped elect Bloomberg by running a crappy campaign.

Now he's trying to help elect Lhota by staying in as long as he can and keep de Blasio from turning to Lhota.

Bill Thompson lost by more than 14 percentage points to Bill de Blasio.

It wasn't even close.

He cannot win a runoff against de Blasio.

And yet, he's going to try and force one anyway.

Thompson, Supporters Meet At UFT Headquarters Tonight

Azi Paybarah at Capital NY:

Bill Thompson's top supporters met tonight at the Manhattan headquarters of the United Federation of Teachers as their candidate discussed with them the possibility of ending his bid for the Democratic mayoral nomination before all the votes are counted. 

U.F.T. president Michael Mulgrew, who promised that his union would deliver a primary victory to Thompson, had vowed on primary night that the campaign would go on, after Bill de Blasio appeared to finish just above the necessary 40 percent threshhold to win the nomination without a run-off. Mulgrew said at the time that he was tired of people's voices being "silenced."

Today, as he arrived for the 6:30 meeting, he sounded more conciliatory, saying he was there to make "a decision" with some "friends" for the purpose of "finding out what everyone thinks."

Rep. Nydia Velazquez, who remained neutral in the primary, showed up, too. She said she was just there to listen. 

Brooklyn Democratic party chairman Frank Seddio said he would support whatever decision Thompson made.

Rep. Charlie Rangel, who earlier told Capital that he could why people feel "comfortable" endorsing de Blasio now, said his advice to Thompson was to "stay strong."

Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, who gave a rousing primary night speech for Thompson in 2009 and backed him again this year, said, "One... what does Bill Thompson want to do? That's most important. Two, does the principle of one person one vote mean anything in New York City? And three, what's good for the Democratic Party?"

Thompson entered building through a back door and did not talk to reporters.

Mulgrew went from talking tough on primary night to not talking at all yesterday to sounding like he is ready to prod Thompson out of the race tonight.

Quick 44 hour progression from ready to go the mattresses and fight for Thompson to "Let's make a decision and move on..."

With midnight tomorrow the deadline for Thompson to pull out without triggering a runoff (if de Blasio falls below the 40% in the paper ballot counts), I bet he's out by tomorrow.

The crew showing up at 52 Broadway tonight doesn't sound like they're looking for Thompson to stay in, do they?

Thompson Can Short Circuit Runoff By Pulling Out By Tomorrow Night

Lisa Fleischer reports:

The pressure intensified Thursday on Bill Thompson to abandon a runoff fight, with institutional supporters urging the Democrat to avoid splintering the party by continuing to pursue his campaign for New York City mayor.

Mr. Thompson, the former city comptroller, was waiting Thursday for all votes from Tuesday’s Democratic mayoral primary to be counted to see whether Public Advocate Bill de Blasio made it across the 40% line needed to avoid a runoff. He has until midnight Friday to tell the Board of Elections that he isn’t interested in pursuing a runoff, even though thousands of votes have yet to be counted. Paper ballots won’t be opened until Monday, meaning no official results will be available until next week.

Thompson's supporters are having a strategy meeting tonight to figure out how to proceed.

How much do you want to make a bet that Thompson is told he must get out by tomorrow?

Now I don't know if actually will - he says he's adamant about staying in until all the votes are counted.

I also don't know where this stubborn streak in Thompson came from.

In the 2008 campaign, he certainly didn't show this side of himself.

Hell, I think there were days he didn't leave bed when he was campaigning against Bloomberg.

Now suddenly he's turned into Harry "Give 'Em Hell" Truman.

In any case, his supporters are jumping his sinking ship and I'm going to bet he's gone by tomorrow.

He's got no money, no way to raise money until the paper ballots are counted and a runoff is officially in the works, and most of the party wants him out.

Charlie Rangel Says Thompson Supporters Having Strategy Meeting To See Where Thompson Campaign Goes Now

With the list of Democratic establishment figures and unions supporting Bill de Blasio for mayor getting longer and longer, Bill Thompson isn't going to get too much help if he decides to stay in the race and try and force a runoff.

So far, Lew Fidler is still supporting him, telling waffling Thompson supporters to "grow a pair" and get back on the Thompson bandwagon.

But Thompson supporter Charlie Rangel sounded a little more circumspect about what will happen with Thompson going forward:

Rep. Charlie Rangel said he'll attend a "strategy meeting" with Bill Thompson supporters this evening, to consider options for the second-place candidate.

"We're meeting tonight with all the Bill Thompson supporters and labor, and we have to see where the hell did Bill Thompson get those votes that no one was able to expect him to get in the Bloomberg-Thompson election," said Rep. Charlie Rangel, in a phone interview from Washington this morning. "Because clearly on paper, if indeed the final count means that Bill [de Blasio] falls below the 40 percent, then we have to make certain that we get a majority of votes. So we're having a strategy meeting tonight in New York."

Dunno how you read those comment,s but I read them this way - unless Thompson's backers know he can beat de Blasio in a runoff, that the possibility for those voters going to Thompson in a runoff exists, then they're not backing him to force one.

Which is another way of saying they're not backing Thompson to force a runoff, because we know those votes don't exist.

De Blaiso won in every demographic category imaginable - including with black voters.

Rangel knows Thompson doesn't have a chance:

Asked if he was surprised by de Blasio's performance among black voters, Rangel said, "Not after I saw that commercial for de Blasio with his son."

I asked Rangel if he thought the ad, which is narrated by de Blasio's 16-year-old son, Dante, was really that effective.

"Effective? Hell, it was mind-blowing," he said. "That was the kid that they're looking for in stop-and-search. That is him! Big goddam afro, black kid, he's the one! In other words, the candidate's son." He let out a laugh.

"And then the mayor, I don't know--he was so beautiful, in calling Bill de Blasio a racist for exposing his family," he said. "I mean, by having your family, your biracial family, come forward is racist, because they see that you're really Americans, and we don't have time for that, either you're Jewish or Christian or black or white, I don't know."

"But I know one thing, de Blasio handled these things so beautifully well, I can understand how people felt very comfortable endorsing him," Rangel said.

I bet they pull the plug on this thing tomorrow.

Monday latest.

But if they're having this meeting tonight, tomorrow might be the day.

Christine Quinn Urges Supporters To Back De Blasio

The de Blasio campaign had a "unity rally" today where they pulled out a bunch of former Quinn supporters, a few former Thompson supporters and a whole bunch of de Blasio supporters and had a party:

Standing before the steps of Brooklyn Borough Hall, a mass of elected officials and unions, including the labor-backed Working Families Party, officially endorsed Public Advocate Bill de Blasio for mayor today.

They join Rev. Al Sharpton and other labor leaders who announced their support for Mr. de Blasio yesterday.

Many of the endorsers had backed Council Speaker Christine Quinn, who was defeated in last Tuesday’s primary, or were otherwise neutral. Her loss allowed them to get behind Mr. de Blasio as the second-place finisher, Bill Thompson, holds out hope he can make the runoff.

A full list of the Democrats and left-leaning organizations who have endorsed Mr. de Blasio since Tuesday:

Héctor Figueroa, President of 32BJ SEIU
Peter Ward, President of the Hotel Trades Council
Working Families Party (WFP)
Congressman Jerry Nadler
Stuart Appelbaum, President of the Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Union (RWDSU)
United Food and Commercial Workers (UFCW) Local 1500
Brooklyn Borough President Marty Markowitz
Former Congresswoman and City Comptroller Liz Holtzman
Planned Parenthood of NYC Political Committee
Assemblyman and Chair of the NYS Black, Puerto Rican, Hispanic, and Asian Legislative Caucus Karim Camara
Assemblywoman Deborah Glick
Assemblywoman Linda Rosenthal
Assemblywoman Nily Rozic
Assemblyman Phil Goldfeder
Assemblyman Mike Simanowitz
Assemblywoman Gabriela Rosa
Assemblyman Rafael Espinal
Assemblyman Dick Gottfried
Assemblyman Michael Miller
State Senator Daniel Squadron
State Senator Kevin Parker
State Senator Brad Hoylman
State Senator Gustavo Rivera
State Senator Joe Addabbo
State Senator Martin Dilan
Councilman Ydanis Rodriguez
Councilwoamn Tish James
Councilman Donovan Richards
Councilwoman Margaret Chin
Councilman Erik Dilan
Councilman Danny Dromm
Councilman Steve Levin
Councilman Jimmy Vacca
Councilman Dan Garodnick
Former Councilman and Assemblymember Guillermo Linares
City Council Democratic nominee Ritchie Torres
City Council Democratic nominee Menchaca
City Council Democratic nominee Corey Johnson
City Council Democratic nominee Helen Rosenthal
City Council Democratic nominee Reynoso
City Council Democratic nominee Mark Levine
Democratic nominee for Brooklyn District Attorney Ken Thompson
United Auto Workers (UAW) Region 9A
Communication Workers of America (CWA) Local 1180 President Arthur Cheliotes
International Union of Operating Engineers Local 891 President Robert Troeller
International Union of Operating Engineers Local Unions 94, 94A, and 94B President Kuba Brown
District Leader Paula Melendez
District Leader Corey Provost
District Leader Frank Gulluscio
Former Community Board 1 Chairperson of Lower Manhattan Julie Menin

And then Christine Quinn also publicly supported de Blasio in the race for City Hall:

Speaking for the first time since her concession speech following her devastating loss in the mayor’s race, City Council Speaker Christine Quinn asked her supporters to rally around the presumptive Democratic nominee, Bill de Blasio.

“Please rally behind the Democratic nominee as quickly as possible,” she told reporters at a press conference at City Hall, where she appeared upbeat–though clearly tired–two days after the loss.

Many of Ms. Quinn’s most prominent endorsers have already rallied around the public advocate, who has narrowly surpassed the crucial 40 percent needed to avoid a run-off. But thousands of paper ballots have yet to be counted, and second-place finisher rival Bill Thompson has repeatedly refused to concede until the votes have been tallied.

Ms. Quinn–flanked by many of her mayoral supporters, as well as some members who’d backed her opponents–declined to say whether she thought Mr. Thompson should step aside, but made clear she expects Mr. de Blasio to win the party’s nomination.

“That’s a decision for him to have to make,” she said. “I think clearly I’ve made very clear I’m gonna enthusiastically support the Democratic nominee. I think it’s clear to most folks that that person is going to be Bill de Blasio, but that’s a decision for Bill Thompson to make himself.”

Other than Lew Fidler and Dov Hikind, who is still publicly backing Thompson?

Even the UFT has remained largely silent on the runoff question since primary night.

Al Sharpton Urges Bill Thompson Out Of The Race

It's only a matter of time before Thompson is gone.

The Daily News reports that not only have three of the Quinn unions quickly endorsed de Blasio post-primary, but Al Sharpton is also urging Thompson out for the sake of the Democratic Party:

A day after the primaries, the mayoral campaign hit the pause button Wednesday for the anniversary of 9/11 — but behind the scenes, Democratic leaders were working to get Bill Thompson to quit the race.

Several Democratic heavyweights said they are throwing their support to Public Advocate Bill de Blasio in the interest of party unity — even though Thompson was holding out hope he may have enough support from the uncounted votes to force a runoff.

Leaders of three unions that backed City Council Speaker Christine Quinn for mayor — Local 32BJ of the Service Employees International Union, the Hotel Trades Council and the Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Workers Union — signaled that they are jumping to de Blasio or that Thompson should not pursue a runoff.

The Rev. Al Sharpton also is urging Thompson to leave the race “to avoid there being a short, bitter runoff that would likely end” with de Blasio winning anyway, said an elected official who backed Thompson for mayor.

And de Blasio’s campaign organized a “unity rally” for Thursday in downtown Brooklyn to speed the process of bringing the party together.

“It’s an effort to unify labor and Democrats around de Blasio and to push Thompson out of the running,” said one political operative organizing the gathering.

A top labor leader who endorsed Thompson predicted that he would drop out by Friday, so the party can avoid more infighting after a contentious primary.

“By the end of this week, you should see all the Democrats uniting behind one candidate,” the source said, predicting Thompson would soon recognize that a bruising, three-week runoff with de Blasio would not help the Democrats’ chances of recapturing City Hall after being out of power for 20 years.

Thompson was adamant that he is staying the race until all the votes are counted, but with his co-chair Merryl Tisch publicly stating she thinks Bill de Blasio won a "convincing victory," with the Quinn unions all jumping on the de Blasio bandwagon, with Al Sharpton publicly stating it's time for Thompson to go, and with other Democrats behind the scenes telling him the same, he will have no support if he chooses to try and force a runoff.

Even the UFT won't be backing Thompson:

Another key Thompson supporter, United Federation of Teachers boss Michael Mulgrew, offered only the most perfunctory comments when asked if Thompson should stay in the race.

“We are awaiting the final count,” he said.

And yet another Thompson ally in the labor movement said it would be difficult for Thompson to take de Blasio down in a one-on-one matchup.

“If Billy couldn’t even beat de Blasio among black voters, where will he draw additional votes from?” this labor leader said, referring to an exit poll that showed de Blasio, who is white, tied Thompson, who is black, among African-American voters.

Those of us who were worried that the UFT would continue to back Thompson in a runoff apparently need not be.

Mulgrew's words are not exactly a call to arms for Thompson.

I was thinking they would give him until Monday to get out of the race, giving him a chance to save face by waiting for the final votes to be counted.

But it sounds from the News article that pressure is ratcheting up behind the scenes and when Sharpton goes public with a call for Thompson to quit, he's got to know the game is over.