So Much For The Experts

Harold Meyerson on the lessons that the earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear catastrophe in Japan bring:

The Great Lisbon Earthquake of 1755 killed about a fifth of the city’s 200,000 residents and leveled 85 percent of its buildings, including almost every major church — on a church holiday, when they were packed with parishioners. It also shook 18th-century philosophers to the core. “Candide,” Voltaire’s comic polemic against the belief that all was for the best in this best of all possible worlds, was written in the quake’s aftermath, as Voltaire was abandoning any notion of godly oversight of the world’s affairs. The young Immanuel Kant was sufficiently upset to research and write one of the first books ever on the causes of quakes, before he turned to his life’s work of creating ethical codes that functioned in both the presence and absence of God.

Today, the quake, tsunami and, most particularly, the potential of a nuclear catastrophe in Japan should weaken at least one of our own deeply rooted faiths — in our own infallibility. Consider, for a moment, all the systems that the experts said had been rendered safe, foolproof and immune to disaster, and that nonetheless crashed during the past three years. There was the financial system, an assemblage of immense wagers on all manner of things, which an array of mathematicians and economists assured us could not possibly come tumbling down. There was deep-water oil drilling, which the oil companies’ geologists, among others, insisted could not possibly result in a cataclysmic spill. And today, there are nuclear power plants, safeguarded, their engineers have told us, against the oh-so-remote possibilities of meltdowns.

These assurances — at least, most of them — were not given in bad faith. Wall Street’s quants genuinely believed that they had erected a stable system, as did the geologists and the nuclear engineers. The equations were elegant; things penciled out. At long last, humankind had triumphed over risk.

Except when it hadn’t.

What all these wizards did not factor in was that these were all just as much human and social systems as they were mathematical. Behind the equations were human and social assumptions, rooted in such human and social impulses as greed, denial and hubris.

The Great Gates tells us he has solved the riddle of teaching and education and will ensure that all students learn from "great teachers" if only the country will accept Gates Foundation-sponsored evaluation systems to rate teachers by value-added assessments.

Except that the tests are badly written, they're graded by $10 an hour temps, and the value-added systems used to grade teachers have margins of error between 12%-35%.

Just like the financial system is safe from risk, nuclear power plants are modernized and immune from major catastrophe and oil rigs never leak, the modern education reform movement has the future of students all mapped out for success - if only we would all listen to them.

Greed, denial, and hubris indeed.

Meltdown

No words can capture just how frightening this is:

TOKYO — Japan faced the likelihood of a catastrophic nuclear accident Tuesday morning, as an explosion at the most crippled of three reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station damaged its crucial steel containment structure, emergency workers were withdrawn from the plant, and a fire at a fourth reactor spewed large amounts of radioactive material into the air, according to official statements and industry executives informed about the developments.

“No. 4 is currently burning and we assume radiation is being released. We are trying to put out the fire and cool down the reactor,” the chief government spokesman, Yukio Edano, told a televised press conference. “There were no fuel rods in the reactor, but spent fuel rods are inside.”

Government officials also said the containment structure of the No. 2 reactor had suffered damage during an explosion shortly after 6 a.m. on Tuesday.

They initially suggested that the damage was limited and that emergency operations aimed at cooling the nuclear fuel at three stricken reactors with seawater would continue. But industry executives said that in fact the situation had spiraled out of control and that all plant workers needed to leave the plant to avoid excessive exposure to radioactive leaks.

If all workers do in fact leave the plant, the nuclear fuel in all three reactors is likely to melt down, which would lead to wholesale releases of radioactive material — by far the largest accident of its kind since the Chernobyl disaster 25 years ago.

Safe and reliable.

Unless something goes wrong.

And now something has gone horribly, horribly wrong.

Devastation In Japan, No Devastation At CNBC

The above photo was taken in Natori, Japan. I think the picture says much about the horror that the Japanese people are suffering.

Meanwhile at CNBC, Larry Kudlow is still grateful that the human toll is greater than the economic toll of the disaster.

In other words, he's grateful stocks haven't collapsed.

Isn't it refreshing to have a voice of the Masters of the Universe say what they're really thinking?

You know, I have watched CNBC in the past and I have to say, the network is home to some of the scummiest people on the planet not employed by Rupert Murdoch.

Kudlow is just slightly more honest about his feelings then Maria, Erin, Cramer and the rest of the gang.

Japan

From Marketwatch:

MADRID (MarketWatch) -- The 8.9 magnitude earthquake that hit Japan on Friday is the strongest ever to hit the country, according to historical data on the U.S. Geological Survey website. Data stretch back to 1891 and included in those records are ones that have hit near coastal areas of Japan. In 1896, an 8.5 quake hit Sanriku, Japan, killing 27,000 and causing a tsunami of 25 meters. The quake that resulted in the most fatalities occurred in 1923, when a 7.9 quake struck Kanto, killing 143,000. It is one of the world's most destructive earthquakes in history. In recent history, the Kobe quake of 1995 was the most deadly, measuring 6.9 and killing 5,502. Japan is located on a fault line called the Pacific Ring of Fire, making it prone to earthquakes over history.

Worst ever.

Sometimes you look a the news, watch the turbulence in the Middle East, the political upheaval and class warfare here, and the natural disasters and other forces of nature that are negatively impacting humanity all over the globe and think - we are at some kind of breaking point.

Dunno how far I want to go with this, but there is this school of spiritual thought that says all the energy we throw out into the world with our thoughts, words and actions has repercussions.

When we are acting, talking or thinking negatively, that is the energy we send out into the world.

When we are acting, talking or thinking positively, that is the energy we send out into the world.

It is so hard these days - with the unrivaled assaults of middle and working class people, on union members, on teachers, to NOT want to fight negativity with negativity.

But this earthquake in Japan reminds me that while it is VERY important to fight all the horrors we have seen in recent years against working people, union members and teachers, it is also important to remember to keep to our positive core of progressive, community-based values.

My thoughts are with all the people affected by this earthquake and tsunami today.