We should have some public polls released soon.
Those will give us a sense of where things stand.
But here's where I see things two weeks out:
It's still a three candidate race with Quinn looking like she has one runoff slot
locked up, de Blasio and Thompson fighting for the other, and Quinn
having an uphill battle in the runoff.
Quinn hasn't been able to get above the mid-twenties in any poll since the late winter/early spring.
That may be enough support to get her in a runoff, but it makes it hard for her to win a runoff.
Harry Enten at The Guardian thinks there's an outside chance de Blasio and Thompson both could pass her and leave her out of the runoff.
That would be something, wouldn't it?
But I'm not ready to go there yet.
As for the rest, De Blasio has taken some hits lately in the press and in the debates.
It will be interesting to see if those hits have short circuited his momentum from the last slate of polls which had him going ahead in one and tying Quinn for first in another.
Thompson lost all three newspaper endorsements because of his UFT endorsement, at least according to those newspaper editorial writers.
I wonder what Thompson thinks about that?
Quinn, meanwhile, has won all three newspaper endorsements.
The Post endorsement wasn't all that helpful to her (i.e., she's the best of a really bad slate of candidates!), but the DN and Times editorials might help her.
I'm not convinced people vote how the editorial writers tell them to on a top line race like the mayor's race, but we'll have to see about that.
With two weeks to go, the parameters of the race seem set, barring something unforeseen.
If you had told me back in May that this is what the race would look like two weeks out, with de Blasio polling either in a tie with Quinn or in the lead and with Quinn stuck in the mid-twenties for months and seemingly incapable of getting past that level, I certainly would have taken you up on that.
And so I will - not a bad state of affairs with a couple of weeks left until Primary Day, all things considered.
If Quinn does not poll at 30% after the endorsements and the additional print media cover than she is toast. If she remains at 25-28% she looses the runoff to either Thompson or DeBlasio. I still believe that Thompson is the eventual winner, I see him in the runoff against Quinn and winning handily. Why? Because it appears the African American vote that Thompson is now actively campaigning for and running adds against DeBalsio will bring him a majority coupled with union endorsements and he winds up 2nd in the primary and first in the runoff and general election.
ReplyDeleteThat's a good bet - I think you may be right about Thompson.
DeleteGood point about Quinn needing to poll over 30% in those last polls before the election or she's toast. She's gotten an awful lot of print and TV media over the endorsements, plus she's been up with ads for over a month. If she can't move the needle after all of that, she'll never be able to.