Perdido 03

Perdido 03

Thursday, February 27, 2014

Chancellor Farina May Get Another Beautiful Day

There is the possibility of a major storm early next week that could make for an interesting school day on Monday.

Here's the National Weather Service from this morning:

from upton...MODELS HAVE COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
STORM WHICH SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH ITS SURFACE
LOW...AND ALSO TOWARDS A COLDER LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE...MORE IN
LINE WITH THE CMC AND GFS. THERE IS NOW A GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT
THE SURFACE LOW WILL PASS NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE MONDAY.

AS A RESULT...HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE COLDER CMC/GFS
SOLUTIONS. ALSO...GIVEN THAT THE STORM IS 4-5 DAYS AWAY...HAVE KEPT
P-TYPES SIMPLE - RAIN...SNOW...OR RAIN AND SNOW AS TOO MUCH COULD
CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE STORM TO TRY TO PINPOINT
WHERE AND WHEN SLEET AND POSSIBLY EVEN FREEZING RAIN COULD COME
INTO PLAY. NOTING THAT THE ECMWF IS PLAYING CATCH UP TO THE GFS AND
CMC WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING DOWN INTO THE
PLAINS AND EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE NE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...BELIEVE THE ECMWF HAS TOO MUCH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR AT THE
START...SO EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY AS
ALL SNOW...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY A MIX WITH RAIN RIGHT AS IT STARTS
SUNDAY EVENING. SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN ALONG THE S FORK OF LONG ISLAND
MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TAPER OFF FROM W TO E MONDAY NIGHT. IF THERE
WHERE TO BE ANY MIXING IN OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN...THIS WOULD
MOST LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...DEPENDING UPON EXACTLY
HOW FAR N THE LOW LEVEL WARM TONGUE GETS.

EVEN WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL THE CWA FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE
HWO. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE HIGH AND
LOW...THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH THIS STORM.
AT THIS TIME...THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS 

Chancellor Farina may get a re-do on the snow call she made a few weeks ago, when she kept schools opened as a foot of snow fell from rush hour on.

It's weather forecasting, so who the hell knows if this will play out the way Upton thinks or if it will all fall apart and we truly will have a beautiful day on Monday, but it is something to keep an eye on, that's for sure.

5 comments:

  1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  2. Sorry, my keyboard is having issues.

    I think you need to translate the NWS area discussion.

    However, here is what it should read. Snow, heavy at times, 6-12 inches with the heaviest snow occurring when the NYC schoolchildren will be dodging out-of-control buses, cars, taxicabs, and trucks and taking their collective lives in their hands for a hot lunch of reheated pizza and fries. Assuming the cafeteria staff actually shows up. Yes, a "beautiful day" is coming on Monday.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Translation: Possibility of a shitload of snow on Monday, depending upon tracking of storm. Little mixing issues - it's going to come down mostly as snow. And we're looking at a late Sunday/early Monday start, with potential for the rush hour to be the height of the storm.

      In short, just like the Macy's Day storm, only Monday instead of Thursday.

      We'll see - Craig Allen on WCBS 880 was taking it pretty seriously tonight, and he's not a hyper.

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  3. TeachmyclassMrMayor(andyoutooMrMulgrew)February 27, 2014 at 6:07 PM

    Is that from the Macy's meteorological hotline?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No, but they sell the translation for the code there.

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