Barring Indictment, De Blasio Looks Like He'll Get A Fairly Easy Run At Re-Election

Two pieces of New York City mayoral race news today.

First, as expected, Hakeem Jeffries declined to run against de Blasio:

Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, a Brooklyn Democrat, said Tuesday he will not run for mayor of New York City — leaving one less potential challenger for Mayor Bill de Blasio as he faces re-election later this year.

"The stakes are so high in Washington D.C. right now, and I want to be part of the effort to turn the situation around," Jeffries said in an interview. "It would be a dereliction of duty to abandon ship at the moment when times are tough."

...

Jeffries said de Blasio has benefited from the election of President Donald Trump, and the palpable anger and fear in New York City toward the president. More than 80 percent of the city's voters voted against Trump, and de Blasio has positioned himself in the city as standing up to Trump on immigration and other issues.

"The phenomenon has benefited the mayor because it's taken a lot of attention off of City Hall," Jeffries said.

Jeffries said "top-tier candidates" are still looking to the investigations to see if they "potentially change the dynamic."

"It's not clear to me that there's a meaningful candidate prepared to step forward at the moment," he said.

Next up, GOP hopeful/real estate developer Paul Massey had a press conference today that, well, let's just say didn't go so well.  Here's a play-by-play in tweets:

Republican mayoral candidate Paul Massey holds press conference at City Hall, criticizing Mayor de Blasio for "unprecedented" corruption pic.twitter.com/A7Pt14m5AZ

— Samar Khurshid (@samarkhurshid) February 21, 2017

New York GOP mayoral candidate Paul Massey declines to offer policy specifics in first campaign event. Hello 2017 https://t.co/JvTAzUmfqG

— Mara Gay (@MaraGay) February 21, 2017

"We'll make it different almost immediately," Massey says when @chayesmatthew presses him for details on his homelessness plan

— Mara Gay (@MaraGay) February 21, 2017

"I haven't established an answer," Paul Massey says when Bloomberg's @hgoldman77 asks if he supports expanding stop and frisk like Trump

— Mara Gay (@MaraGay) February 21, 2017

Less than 9 months to Election Day, it's surprising that @MasseyForMayor hasn't identified a position on this core criminal justice issue. https://t.co/GjSmbIljIF

— Dean Chang (@dchangnyt) February 21, 2017

@HyersBill Was on life support anyway since GOP real estate developer not great candidate for Trump Era. But yikes!

— rbe (@perdidostschool) February 21, 2017

And so, we appear to have two potential challengers to de Blasio taken out of the equation in one day.

It's been rumored for a while now that Jeffries, who has been elevated into the Democratic leadership in the House, was going to decline to run for mayor, so that announcement wasn't much of a surprise.

But the Massey presser, well, that was a bit of a surprise to me.

Given that we're now in the Trump Era, it was going to be a heavy lift for Massey, a Republican real estate developer, to win post November 2016, but to be honest, I always assumed he was a bit more serious as a candidate than what showed up today.  How could he not have an answer for the stop-and-frisk issue?

You can see the whole Massey presser here at his Facebook page - assuming they don't take it down to try and undo some of the damage.

Go on and watch it and you tell me if he's somebody who can win a mayor's race in NYC during the Trump Era - from what I see so far, it's unlikely.

As for other potential opponents, Scott Stringer has apparently all but ruled out a run (barring something extraordinary coming from the Southern District of New York on de Blasio) and the air around Ruben Diaz Jr. has grown awfully quiet on that front as well.

That leaves this guy who raised $750 last quarter and left the mainstream Democratic conference in the state Senate to join the breakaway, Republican-allied Independent Democratic Conference, a group of faux Dems growing increasingly unpopular in the Trump Era:

And maybe this guy:

Councilman Dan Garodnick, a Manhattan Democrat who lost his bid to become the City Council Speaker in 2014, has talked with donors, consultants and others about running for mayor. Garodnick has told these people he would want a one-on-one race with de Blasio and would be interested if he saw a path, but isn't sure if there is one.

Asked about the conversations, Garodnick declined to comment. "I am exploring my options as I am term-limited," he said. Garodnick had previously denied he was considering a mayoral run.

Oh, and an ex-Jet with about as much chance of winning City Hall as the Jets had of winning the Super Bowl last year.

And there was that rumor about Hillary Clinton maybe running for mayor, but that's pretty much bullshit.

None of this is going to matter in a race against de Blasio where he has managed to make labor peace with the cops, other unions (including the UFT) have endorsed him, and he continues to enjoy popular support in the black community.

So from what I can see, the biggest opponent de Blasio appears to have for re-election right now is U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara.

No wonder the UFT jumped aboard the de Blasio Express when they did. 

Barring something coming from Bharara, it looks like de Blasio is going to waltz to November relatively unscathed.

Somewhere Bradley Tusk weeps.

Independent Democratic Conference Unveil Backdoor Voucher Plan For Private Schools In New York

The Independent Democratic Conference released an agenda today and this was in it (emphasis added):

Creating an Education Investment Tax Credit (EITC) for Public and Private Schools

When it comes to effectively educating our children, New York’s schools need every dollar they can get. The IDC believes in rewarding New Yorkers which opt to voluntarily donate to their local public or private school by finally making these donations tax deductible. In order to make sure every dollar is spent fairly and effectively, tax deductible donations made to private schools must be used to fund scholarship opportunities that qualify.

They can call it an "Education Investment Tax Credit (EITC) for Public and Private Schools" or "scholarship opportunities" or whatever they want.

In effect, it's a backdoor voucher plan to steer tax money away from public schools to private schools and further undercut the public school system.

If enacted, that's how the program will work and you can bet that's the intent.

Is Cuomo Coming For Teachers' Pensions?

In case you missed this not-so-subtle threat from Governor Cuomo during his second inauguration speech, here it is again:

Albany has been too concerned with protecting the pension rights of teachers and not enough with the future of students. #NYGov2015
— Andrew Cuomo (@NYGovCuomo) January 1, 2015

Now we know Cuomo has already threatened to "break" what he termed the "public school monopoly" and has stated he believes more must be done to remove "bad teachers" from the system, so it's possible that the reference to teachers pensions in his statement is more a hit at Albany for not taking on teachers than anything else.

But I must say, that statement unnerved a lot of people on social media, and even as news broke that Governor Cuomo's father, former New York Governor Mario Cuomo, died yesterday, I still saw a lot of people retweeting and remarking on the Andrew Cuomo/teachers pensions attack from the second inauguration speech.

Ralph Ratto had a series of tweets, both before and after the Mario news, that sums up the reaction many teachers had to Andrew Cuomo's attack on teachers and their pensions yesterday:

@NYGovCuomo any attempt to touch public service workers' pensions will result in this state getting shut down..
— rratto (@rratto) January 2, 2015

@NYGovCuomo looking for a street fight.. Attacking pensions is the way to get it..
— rratto (@rratto) January 2, 2015

RT @rratto: @NYGovCuomo went to Buffalo and he thought he became Scott Walker of Wisconsin
— rratto (@rratto) January 2, 2015

Cuomo sends out a tweet attacking teacher pension on the day his father passes... classless
— rratto (@rratto) January 2, 2015

I too heard the pension attack as a warning shot (see here) and I agree with all of the sentiments Ralph Ratto expressed in his tweets.

That said, Cuomo can't attack just teachers pensions without taking on the whole system, as Harris Lirtzman pointed out in this comment:

Yes, he/they really do hate teachers.

But, deep breath, neither Cuomo nor the Legislature can change one city pension plan without changing all of them--in terms of benefit contributions, vesting and retirement calculations. Nor do I believe they can change the requirements for NYSTRS and NYSLERS at the state level, separately.

Cuomo may look to do "pension reform" again, push for new "tiers," or try to do away with pensions for future workers altogether and go with some sort of 401(K) plan.

But coming off a less than convincing re-election victory where he outraised his opponent 9-1 and still won the fewest votes of any sitting governor seeking re-election in New York since FDR in 1930, with a full Legislature pissed off at him that he didn't make a deal to raise their pay for the first time since 1999 and an Assembly controlled by Democrats looking to pay him back for some of his spiteful treatment of them, does he really have the political muscle for pension reform?

I'm dubious that he does.

In fact, if the teachers unions would just buckle down and fight him on his education reform agenda instead of signaling that they're ready to cave on the charter cap and teacher evaluation revisions, I think Cuomo could be beaten on his entire agenda this time around.

He's at the weakest point of his governorship and his allies in the State Senate hold a slim majority (though it may be enhanced by the turncoat IDC Dems like Jeff Klein and Tony Avella) while Assembly Dems actually picked up seats last election.

In addition, his functionaries in the administration have been quitting at a rapid pace and he hasn't been able to replace them - he's going into the second term with the second and third string running things for him.

Less-than-impressive re-election numbers, a slim GOP majority in the State Senate, Assembly Dems pissed at him, and an administration running with second and third string figures at the helm - this is not the most promising environment for a governor to push something as heavy as pension reform.

Tony Avella Explains Why He's A Whore

Buried in the Times story on the negotiations between the governor and the legislature on raising the pay of Assembly and State Senate members is this:

“If you really want good people in government, you have to offer something of a competitive salary,” said State Senator Tony Avella, a Democrat from Queens. “If my wife wasn’t working, I’d have a tough time carrying the mortgage on my one-family house on this salary.”

Perhaps that's why Avella joined the corporate-friendly Independent Democratic Conference and will push corporate-friendly policies like tax cuts for rich people, benefit cuts for working people, and charter schools for all.

No better way for a politician to make the mortgage payment than pushing policies that make rich people happy and in the mood to "give" to them, either in the form of campaign contributions or future career considerations once the political days are over.

I'm skeptical a pay raise would change Avella's essential nature, however, or any of the other whores in Albany.

A guy like Avella who's willing to turn 180 on his supposed political beliefs, that guy's for sale all the time, no matter the base salary.

Charter School Supporters Want Payback From Cuomo, Legislature

Not a surprise:

Charter school advocates are pushing for a bigger slice of the education pie after Republicans took a larger share of lawmaking power in Albany after last week’s election.

Pro-charter groups who spent millions on advertising, lobbying and campaigns in the fall want favorable treatment from the Legislature and Gov. Cuomo.

They seek to limit Mayor de Blasio’s control of charter schools, expand funding and lift the cap on charter schools in New York, allowing for the creation of more charter schools in the city and across the state.

...

There are currently 28 slots left for charter schools in New York City and an additional 133 upstate. Charter boosters seek to raise or eliminate those caps.

Charter advocates also want more money for charter schools set aside in the state budget. The state’s current budget leaves out facilities funding for many charter schools.

Pro-charter school groups pumped more than $4 million into a super PAC called New Yorkers for a Balanced Albany that helped the Republicans win the state Senate. Charter advocates also spent millions on lobbying.

Governor Cuomo has already told us he plans to "break" the public school system this term and dramatically expand charters acorss the state.

GOP leader Skelos has promised charters are going to get a major emphasis from his caucus this legislative session.

And IDC head Jeff Klein and his IDC betrayers - pro-charter, anti-public school pols all - have indicated they will try and share power with the GOP to push through the Republican agenda.

That means no matter what Assembly Leader Shelly Silver does, this is going through.

Barring something unforeseen, like a major scandal involving a major charter player like Eva Moskowitz or Cuomo getting hauled out in handcuffs by the US attorney investigating him over the Moreland mess, the charter people are going to get what they paid for this legislative session.

Teachers Need To Stop Supporting Members Of The Independent Democratic Caucus

Those of you who voted for a member of the Independent Democratic Conference should understand you have likely added extra seats to the Republican majority in the State Senate - something that will aid Governor Cuomo in pushing through his anti-teacher, anti-public school initiatives:

In an exclusive interview with Time Warner Cable News, Thursday, IDC Leader Jeff Klein said he’s hoping to continue the faction’s coalition with Republicans in the state senate, despite the outcome of Tuesday’s election. This comes as Republicans take a definitive majority in the state senate, regardless of any support the IDC may or may not end up providing to their caucus.

“I’ve had a great working relationship with Senator Skelos. I hope that continues. And I hope he agrees with me. That a coalition government was not only good over the last couple of years, but is something that works really, really well in the months and years ahead.”

Klein has been a pivotal player in Albany since the Independent Democratic Conference was formed in 2011. There are currently five Democrats sitting with the IDC, which may soon be expanded to six if Klein is able to convince newly elected State Senator Jesse Hamilton to join his ranks.

Republican Leader Dean Skelos said earlier this week in an interview on The Capitol Pressroom that he hasn’t made a decision to keep an agreement with the IDC yet, but says he’ll be meeting with Klein in the coming days to discuss their future.

People ask me, what can we do to protect ourselves against the coming onslaught against schools and teachers by Cuomo?

I say, well, it might have been easier to handle the onslaught if teachers would STOP voting for politicians who are anti-teacher, anti-public school, pro-charter and pro-reform.

As bad as it is to have our union leaders collaborating with our enemies, it is even worse when teachers themselves votes for them.

I heard all sorts of reasons why teachers were supporting IDC member Tony Avella over John Liu, IDC member Jeff Klein over Oliver Koppell.

It would have been nice to have John Liu in the State Senate about now to stand up for us instead of Tony Avella to sell us out.

Alas, we have Avella, whose victory over Liu was aided by teacher support.

Same can be said for Koppell.

He might not have been as staunch an ally against deform as Liu would have been, but he surely wouldn't have joined with Skelos and the Republicans for a co-leadership role in order to push through the Senate Cuomo's damaging plans for schools and teachers.

Alas, we have Klein - again with the help of teacher support.

There are 63 seats in the State Senate, the GOP has a slim majority without the IDCer's.

If the IDCer's join with the GOP, that slim majority jumps to 38 or 39 of the 63 seats.

Those are nice numbers for Cuomo to use to push through his "break" plans for the school system and teachers.

I wonder, will the teachers who voted for Avella, Klein, Savino and the rest of the IDC betrayers understand that they have contributed to the onslaught that is coming against schools and teachers by supporting members of the Independent Democratic Caucus?

Even further, after Klein, Avella, Savino et al. help Cuomo destroy public schools and the teaching profession in the next legislative session, will they STOP supporting these rent-a-politicians?

People ask, what concrete steps can we take to stop the attacks against public schools and teacher?

One easy step is to STOP supporting politicians like Klein, Avella and the other members of the Independent Democratic Caucus who aid the corporate deform movement and Governor Cuomo in their plans to destroy the public school system and the teaching profession.

Jeff Klein Suggests He Might Govern With Republicans Again

Here's a betrayal you could see coming from miles away:

Bronx Sen. Jeff Klein, the leader of a breakaway faction of Democrats, edged away from an agreement made with the mainline conference of Democrats earlier this year, saying in an interview on Monday that “a lot has changed.”

In an interview on The Capitol Pressroom, Klein insisted he remained committed to electing more Democrats to the state Senate.

But at the same time, Klein acknowledged that it’s likely no one will be sure who has a clear majority in the chamber after Election Day, signaling that his conference will once again be in a position to play kingmaker.

“I think you have a lot of competitive races, I’ll be very surprised if we know tomorrow evening if there will be more Democrats than Republicans in the state Senate,” Klein said.

In a foreshadowing of what is to come this month – and potentially for the end of the year – Klein would not rule out working with Senate Republicans in some capacity next year.

“I’m a Democrat, I want to elect Democrats, but when the dust settles it’s incumbent on us to work together,” Klein said, adding: “I think it’s premature to say what anyone is going to do until the dust settles.” 

In a clear overture to Cuomo, Klein criticized those on “the extreme left” who have been critical of the governor, saying such statements hurt the Democratic ticket.

Democrats taking back the State Senate would not have guaranteed a more pro-public education or teacher-friendly body.

But you can be sure if Klein is co-running the State Senate along with GOP leader Dean Skelos, it will remain an Eva Moskowitz-friendly body that will give Cuomo whatever he wants on the charter cap, a revision to APPR to make it more punitive and his desire to "break" the public school "monopoly" this next term.

We'll see if Klein decides to go all the way with the betrayal - 2016 is expected to be a better year for Dems, with Hillary Clinton at the top of the ticket, expanding the turnout for Dems.

So Klein has to maneuver carefully here.

He can end up holding power for two years before Dems retake the Senate and exact revenge on him.

But I'm not surprised he's already walking back from his promise to caucus with Dems.

Klein's a slippery fellow, that's for sure - as are many of his fellow members of the IDC.

Time To Send Tony Avella To The Political Trash Heap

I have nothing but disdain for the the Independent Democratic Caucus, the group of breakaway Dems that governed with Republicans and helped Governor Cuomo with much of his pro-Wall Street, pro-education reform agenda.

The member of the IDC I have the most disdain for is Tony Avella, the "maverick" who stuck the knife into his fellow Dems earlier this year when he joined the IDC, allegedly because he felt the Democratic caucus was "dysfunctional" and he wanted to be able to pass legislature as part of the governing majority.

Avella was full of shit, of course - he had simply been paid off to join the IDC and help promote a center-right agenda.

Since the time of Avella's defection, Governor Cuomo was forced to agree to help Dems retake the State Senate as part of the deal that got him the Working Families Party endorsement, an agreement that is supposed to render the IDC non-operative, since a Dem-run State Senate would have no place for the breakaway IDC.

Too bad for Avella - it is starting to look like Avella joined the IDC at exactly the wrong time in its history.

We'll see if Dems actually retake the Senate and, if so, the members of the IDC actually rejoin the Democratic Party rather than continue to govern as Republicans.

In any case, Tony Avella's now whining because John Liu is targeting him in a primary:

In February, Mr. Avella joined a five-member group of breakaway Democrats that has shared control of the Senate with Republicans. By June, Senator Jeffrey D. Klein of the Bronx, the leader of those Democrats, who is also facing a primary challenge, ended that power-sharing arrangement by agreeing to reunite his coalition with fellow Democrats after the fall general election.

But depending on how the elections turn out, in September and November, some suspect Mr. Klein might make more political moves, particularly if he trounces his primary opponent, G. Oliver Koppell, or if the Republicans gain strength in the narrowly divided chamber.

“If the Democrats keep the same number of seats that they have now, which is one more than a majority, I think there will be that agreement,” State Assemblyman David I. Weprin said of Mr. Klein’s promises as he campaigned last week with Mr. Liu. “If for some reason the Republicans pick up a seat or two, all bets could be off.”  

Still, Mr. Avella wonders why Mr. Liu did not drop his challenge. “His whole issue with running was, I joined the I.D.C.,” Mr. Avella said, referring to the breakaway Independent Democratic Conference. “If the whole Liu candidacy was about the I.D.C., well, we’re going back.” 

... 

Mr. Avella called it “a disgrace” that the party bosses were trying to disenfranchise his campaign. He joined with Mr. Klein, he said, because the “Democratic conference was dysfunctional.” The conservative Democrats in the Senate made cohesion on liberal issues difficult, and votes elusive, Mr. Avella continued. Come January, he said, Mr. Klein’s agreement to join his Democratic colleagues is solid.

For their part, some Democrats in the district think Avella is "paying the price" for his disloyalty:

Representative Joseph Crowley, the leader of the Queens Democratic organization, said it was too late to turn back the forces lined up for Mr. Liu. He said Mr. Avella’s “empowerment of the Republican caucus” in the chamber was a betrayal because the party had backed Mr. Avella so strongly.

He predicts a close race, but said he believed Mr. Avella “will pay a price” among voters in the Democratic base for defecting.

Liu has more money than Avella but Avella has "roots" in the district.

I haven't seen any polling on the race but I'll take Joseph Crowley at his word that he thinks it will be close.

I do hope John Liu beats Tony Avella and sends him - and his expedient political career - to the trash heap.

Few pols running in this cycle deserve to be thrown in the trash heap more than Avella.

John Liu To Run Against Tony Avella In Primary

From Ken Lovett at the Daily News:

Former City Controller John Liu has decided to run for state Senate, a source close to him told the Daily News.

Liu, 47, will primary Queens Democrat incumbent Tony Avella, who angered party leaders earlier this year by joining a faction of breakaway Dems who jointly control the Senate with the GOP.
“This is John’s reemergence,” the source said. “He sees it as an opportunity to contribute.”

Confident mainline Dems believe a Liu victory could help them reclaim control of the chamber--or at the very least weaken the Republican-dissident Dem majority coalition.

...

 

The Queens Democratic party, which had been courting Liu, is set Monday to designate him as their candidate so his name can appear on party nominating petitions circulated in the district.

He has already met with key union leaders and hired consultant Neal Kwatra, a former chief of staff to Attorney General Eric Schneiderman with deep union ties.

A Liu candidacy means two members of the five-member breakaway Democratic faction are facing primaries from traditional Democrats this year.

In addition to Avella, Senate co—Leader Jeffrey Klein (D-Bronx) is being challenged by former state Attorney General Oliver Koppell.

Liu is a prodigious fundraising while Avella in January reported having less than $3,000 on hand.

The influential online progressive group, the Daily Kos, which is helping raise money for Koppell, has said it might do the same for Liu if he enters the race.

Some of the best news I've heard in a while - Liu running against Avella with Queens Democratic Party backing.

If Liu can knock off Avella and Koppell can knock off Klein, that would go a long way toward sending a message to corporate Dems and Governor Andrew Cuomo.

Nothing Changes Until Politicians Are Made To Pay A Political Price For Supporting Education Reform

Gary Stern at Lohud has a piece out about an Assembly bill to delay a new state test for prospective teachers that many education students say they have not been given sufficient time to prepare for.

In the article, we get this statement from an Assemblywoman Deborah Glick about the problems with the new NYSED policy and test:

"It hasn't been thought out," she said. "It seems the state Education Department, whether on this issue or K-12 testing, has been intransigent and disconnected from people's lives."

Just how disconnected from people's lives are the functionaries at the state Education Department?

So disconnected that NYSED Commissioner King, flanked by US Secretary of Education
Duncan, gave a defiant speech at New York University yesterday in which he declared there will be no turning back from the state's education reform agenda and no quarter given to opponents and critics of that agenda.

King further stated that no matter how botched the Common Core implementation has been, it will continue unabated:

“The road to change will always be bumpier for some than for others,” the commissioner, John B. King Jr., said in a speech to officials, educators and public policy students at New York University. “But that’s no reason to stop."

Nope, no change in course, no rethinking goals, no softening the rhetoric - just damn the torpedos, full speed ahead with reform!

So far, despite widespread criticism of King and the SED/Regents/Cuomo reform agenda, there have been few changes to the reform trajectory.

The Common Core Standards are still the "state" standards, the Common Core tests are still being given, and while the tests do not "count" for students, they are still be using to evaluate teachers and ultimately fire the "bad" ones.

In addition, the legislature and governor have given even more money to SED for "professional development" for teachers and administrators, more money to SED for public relations outreach to parents to win them over on the Common Core and other reform agenda components, and more time to continue their reform agenda pretty much undiminshed by public criticism or concern.

As I wrote earlier, until politicians are made to pay political prices for supporting King, Regents Chancellor Tisch and the state's reform agenda, SED Commissioner King and the other education reform functionaries at SED are going to continue on their reform trajectory.

You take out a couple of Assembly Members in a primary or general, directly related to Common Core and the state's ed reform agenda, and you'll see some changes.

There has been some talk of Oliver Koppell challenging IDC head/State Senator Jeff Klein of the Bronx.

Klein, despite being a former teacher, has helped Governor Cuomo dismantle public schools here in NYC by giving them unlimited expansion powers and more cash from the public school budget.

Klein has been very supportive of Common Core, APPR and other parts of the state's reform agenda.

Helping to take Klein out of power would certainly get some attention from the political hacks in Albany that critics and opponents of the state's reform agenda mean business.

Benedict Arnold/Tony Avella is another pol in need of a new job who would be ripe for a take-out over CCSS (with Avalla now part of the IDC, he helps ensure the state's reform agenda remains intact 100%.)

Dunno if either Klein or Avella will be primaryed, dunno if either could be taken out in either a primary or a general, but I'll tell you what - until that starts to happen, the arrogant autocrats at the SED and the Regents are going to continue to shove their agendas down our throats.

And they'll do it in style, as King did yesterday, with middle finger waving in our faces, letting us know just how powerless we are to effect change in this "democracy" we call New York State.