Odds On De Blasio's Re-Election

Telling statement from Hakeem Jeffries, charter school shill and oft-rumored Cuomo fave for running against de Blasio in a Democratic primary for mayor, in this Wall Street Journal piece on de Blasio's chances for re-election:

“Short of the investigations showing anything happening to Bill de Blasio, it’s not clear to me that he has anything to be concerned about with respect to his re-election,” said U.S. Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, a Democrat who represents portions of Brooklyn and Queens. “It’s always difficult to unseat an incumbent when the economy and public safety numbers are not subject to heavy criticism.”

Sounds like Jeffries is going to stay in Congress, doesn't it?

Unless those investigations into de Blasio turn up something, of course - but no one seems to know what's going on with any of this:

Here's how the WSJ reports on potential challengers to de Blasio:

City Comptroller Scott Stringer, a Democrat, has privately told consultants and others that whether anyone is indicted has significant sway over whether he runs, people familiar with those discussions said. Mr. Stringer has said he wants to be ready to announce by the end of the year, but isn’t committed and is less likely to run if no one is charged, they said.

Bronx Borough President Ruben Diaz Jr., another Democrat, also has expressed an interest in running but remains unsure if Mr. de Blasio is beatable, a person familiar with the matter said, and believes his chance at being competitive hinges in part on the investigations.

Mr. Jeffries said he is unlikely to run but would make a decision after November. Real-estate executive Paul Massey has said he would seek the Republican mayoral nomination, but it is unclear how formidable a GOP contender would be next year.

Diaz Jr has been investigated in the past by the feds and comes from a family with a history of corruption, so I remain skeptical that's the guy who gets to run successfully against de Blasio on the morals/ethics issue.

As for Massey, a real estate exec running for mayor of NYC? 

Good luck with that.

My thinking on that is, you want to be from a different industry with real estate money backing you to win (you know, like de Blasio...) 

If Jeffries doesn't run (and it sure sounds like he isn't), then only with Stringer do you have a realistic challenger to de Blasio, but until/unless we get more on the investigations in the next few months, Stringer's going to have to sit on his ambition and wait.

Post Cuomo administration indictments, I'm not convinced indictments of de Blasio staff and/or donors will be a fatal shiv for his re-election.

An indictment of the mayor himself would be.

Like everyone else, we'll just have to wait and see.

As a little tea leaf reading, a couple of weeks ago Preet made a de Blasio joke at a public function:

It seems that U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara’s recent slapping of federal charges on Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s closest associates in an alleged bid-rigging scheme has emboldened him to take jabs at just about everyone—right up to Mayor Bill de Blasio and his infamous affinity for traveling all the way to his old neighborhood of Park Slope to exercise at the YMCA during working hours.

Bharara was honored as “Newsmaker of the Decade” by City & State and served as keynote speaker at its 10th anniversary gala tonight at Vermilion Restaurant in Midtown Manhattan.

...
 

The federal prosecutor didn’t reference the case against Cuomo’s top lieutenants, but instead poked fun at another target of his recent investigations: de Blasio, who faces federal probes into his police department and defunct political nonprofits.

Bharara tweaked the mayor’s fondness for traveling 12 miles from his Gracie Mansion home to the Park Slope YMCA—a subject he hates to talk about—and his preference for eating pizza with utensils—known jokingly as “Forkgate.” He praised City & State for choosing Vermilion Restaurant as a venue, saying that he understood it to be “Indian fusion” which resonated well with him because “I’m kind of Indian fusion myself”—but he said de Blasio would prefer the gym if it were an event for him.

“If it had been Mayor de Blasio, we’d all be eating at the Park Slope YMCA,” Bharara said, as attendees shouted “Ooh!” and laughed raucously, “and we’d eat pizza with a knife and fork. It’s just jokes.”

Would Bharara be making Park Slope and pizza jokes about de Blasio if he were going to arrest him on corruption charges in the near future?

Seems weird, but maybe I'm overthinking it.

Moskowitz Backs Corrupt Ruben Diaz Jr. To Take On Corrupt Bill de Blasio

This is funny:

Success Academy CEO Eva Moskowitz may not be running for mayor in 2017, but she's raised money for a potential candidate charter school supporters are hoping can unseat Mayor Bill de Blasio — Bronx Borough President Ruben Diaz Jr.

Moskowitz finished bundling nearly $15,000 for Diaz in May 2015 — six months before she held a press conference on the steps of City Hall to announce she would not challenge de Blasio in 2017, even though she’d been hinting at a run all summer. The early fundraising effort demonstrates that the city’s charter sector, and its legion of wealthy supporters on Wall Street, are open to a Diaz candidacy, should he choose to challenge de Blasio.

Moskowitz appears to have held a fundraiser for the borough president on July 22, 2014 — nine of the 11 contributions were made on that date — and then did a second round of fundraising on May 7, 2015, when she netted two more contributions for Diaz.

A spokesman for Moskowitz declined to answer questions for this story, including why she raised money for Diaz when she was still indicating her own interest in running for mayor, and why she supports Diaz’s potential bid.

Diaz’s 2017 campaign account does not indicate what office he is seeking, and he has not ruled out a potential run for mayor. He has raised $833,924 and spent $372,912, campaign finance records show. De Blasio, by comparison, has raised a little more than $1.1 million and spent $244,761.

De Blasio's vulnerable to a challenger next year because of all the corruption probes, but here's the thing about Moskowitz backing Diaz Jr. for a run against the mayor:

Diaz Jr.has his own corruption problems.

Take this story from the NY Times in 2007, for example:

The Federal Bureau of Investigation is investigating allegations of corruption against two Bronx lawmakers — State Senator Rubén Díaz Sr. and his son, Assemblyman Rubén Díaz Jr., according to an official familiar with the investigation who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

The investigation, first reported by The Daily News, came to light on Thursday, when F.B.I. agents visited the city’s Board of Elections office in the Bronx seeking voter petitions and other records for the elder Mr. Díaz and his son. The agents obtained copies of their personal voter registration and voter history records as well as candidate petitions signed by voters, a Board of Elections spokeswoman said.

And this NY Post story from 2012:

It was a tough week for state Sen. Ruben Diaz Sr. 
 
On Monday, Attorney General Eric Schneiderman announced the indictment of Clement Gardner, CFO of the Christian Community Benevolent Association — a nonprofit founded by Diaz in 1977 and which he ran until 2003.

On Wednesday, the federal corruption trial of Diaz’s friend and former colleague, ex-Sen. Pedro Espada, got under way.

In charges first brought to light in years of Post reporting, Espada is accused of looting hundreds of thousands from the Medicaid-funded Soundview Health Care Network to finance his lavish lifestyle and employ numerous relatives and associates.

The two cases shed light on New York’s kleptocratic culture, in which politicians use taxpayer dollars to enhance their political and personal status.

Schneiderman charges that Gardner embezzled as much as $400,000 from CCBA between January 2004 and May 2007 — a time when Diaz was showering the organization with cash through the corrupt member-item pork-barrel process.

Between 2003 and 2005, Diaz and his son, then-Assemblyman (now Bronx Borough President) Ruben Diaz Jr., reportedly directed $940,000 in member-item support to CCBA — a charity for the elderly and needy that would contribute nice sums to other Diaz-connected political organizations. In 2006 and 2007, Diaz the elder authorized another $500,000.

So, with $1.4 million in public money pouring in, should anyone be surprised that CFO Gardner — also Diaz’s onetime campaign treasurer — opted to help himself to some of the goodies?

Diaz claims to be “shocked” over the arrest, but isn’t worried that he might be implicated in the AG’s investigation, because “I’m not in the business of taking; I’m in the business of giving.”

Well, thanks for the clarity, senator.

That sentiment perfectly captures the essence of the culture: It’s about “giving,” all right — giving away other people’s money to friends, family members and “community” cronies.

Diaz Jr. has managed to mostly avoid scrutiny from the press because he hasn't run for a citywide office yet.

That will change if and when he decides to run for mayor.

It's one thing to challenge a sitting mayor running for re-election because said mayor appears to be corrupt and is facing five corruption probes.

It's another thing to challenge a mayor over corruption when you're corrupt yourself, as Ruben Diaz Jr. appears to be.

Moskowitz's backing of Diaz Jr. shows you how desperate she is to try and get some Eva-friendly face back in City Hall.

With the other Eva-friendly pol, Congressman Hakeem Jeffries, saying (at least for now) that he wants to stay in Congress, Diaz Jr. may be Eva's best bet, but he surely is not a good one.

Even a routine Google search of "Ruben Diaz Jr." and "Corruption" pulls up some interesting information.

Imagine what we'll learn after Diaz Jr. announces a run and somebody drops the oppo research on Diaz Jr. and his corrupt family.

"Grassroots" Charter Groups Outspend Teachers Unions By Millions In Lobbying, Campaign Contributions

Who's the special interest here?

ALBANY—Supporters and opponents of education reform, primarily charter school expansion, spent more than $30 million combined attempting to influence New York State politics in 2014, a Capital analysis of lobbyist reports and campaign finance data found.

Charter school groups and their supporters spent $16 million on lobbying, campaign contributions to state-level candidates and parties and independent expenditure campaigns last year. Charter schools spent nearly $700,000 on lobbying. Education unions and labor-funded advocates spent $11.77 million, according to the analysis.

...

In defending their spending and high-profile backers, education reform leaders have often portrayed teachers’ unions as deep-pocketed behemoths representing special interests. But the spending reality is that in 2014, the pro-charter and reform groups outspent unions by a considerable margin.

...   

Each side was led by a group that accounted for more than half of its cause’s spending. While final lobbying totals for 2014 are not yet available, it is likely Families for Excellent Schools, which spent $9.7 million, and the New York State United Teachers, which spent $8.9 million, will finish as the year’s two highest-spending interest groups.

F.E.S., which has helped organize several massive pro-charter rallies over the past year, spent all its money on lobbying efforts, the Capital analysis found.

The second highest spending pro-charter group was StudentsFirstNY, which spent $272,279 lobbying and organized New Yorkers for a Balanced Albany, an independent expenditure committee that spent $4.2 million supporting a Republican takeover of the New York State Senate. StudentsFirstNY has led the push to support Cuomo’s education agenda which, if implemented, would be disastrous for unions and beneficial to charters.

NYSUT spent $3.2 million on lobbying, $4.55 million helping Democratic state legislative candidates through an independent expenditure committee and $200,000 in support of a referendum for a $2 billion bond to boost technology in schools. The union also gave $936,042 in direct contributions, including $202,300 to the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee and its housekeeping account, $101,883 to the Democratic Assembly Campaign Committee, $95,000 to the Working Families Party and $50,000 to Senator Liz Krueger’s leadership committee.

$16 million to $11.77 million - yet the charter groups like to portray themselves as the underdogs, the "grassroots" operations going up against the "powerful" teachers unions:

"What's striking in these numbers is that a few dozen Wall Street financiers and billionaire hedge fund managers are able to far outspend more than 600,000 educators who believe in the promise of public education and voluntarily give a few bucks out of each paycheck to ensure they have a voice,” said Carl Korn, NYSUT’s spokesman.

Again I ask, who's the special interest here?

And who's the criminal?

Sheldon Silver was indicted yesterday on three criminals counts for making $4 million dollars over 15 years in bribery and kickback schemes.

Yet just last year alone, both sides of the education reform debate threw around millions in campaign donations, with some of the individuals behind education reform groups giving even more money on their own.

And just why are they giving all this money?

Supporters of education-focused groups also donated money to individual political candidates and parties. While it’s difficult to know whether those contributions were motivated by the donors’ positions on education policy, it’s possible the donors used fundraisers as opportunities to share with candidates their views on education. But their spending is worth noting, given their financial commitment to influencing education policy.

Silver's facing 60 years in prison and forfeiture of his Grand Street apartment, his Catskills summer home, his pension and his bank accounts in his criminal case.

The politicians on the other end of all the education reform largesse - most of it coming from just a few individuals with a lot of money to burn - are facing more campaign donations, free food and free booze and all they have to do in return is, you know, just listen to what education reformers want done at the state level.

Take Ruben Diaz, for example, who has carried water for the pro-charter, anti-public school agenda of Families for Excellent Schools.

This week he blasted teachers, said the NYCDOE dumps the "worst teachers" into his district, and called on the Legislature to pass Governor Cuomo's education reform agenda that looks to fire thousands of teachers, close hundreds of schools and turn whole districts over to privatization.

Back in December, Diaz hosted a Christmas party that was paid for on the education reform dime:

CHARTER GROUP TO SPONSOR DIAZ XMAS PARTY—Capital’s Eliza Shapiro: Families for Excellent Schools is co-sponsoring State Senator Ruben Diaz Sr.'s Christmas party, according to an invite sent Friday by Diaz's office. The party, which will take place Dec. 19 at a steakhouse in the Bronx, is also sponsored by the food delivery company Fresh Direct. A spokesman for F.E.S. declined to say how much the group is paying to co-sponsor the event. Diaz, a Bronx Democrat, has been a longtime supporter of charter schools. In a brief interview on Friday, Diaz initially said of F.E.S., "I don't even know who they are," but then said he had worked with "every single group" in support of charter schools, including F.E.S. No children are allowed at the party. F.E.S. spent nearly $9 million in the first ten months of 2014. http://bit.ly/1BEuNqt

Apparently this isn't bribery, but the kickback scheme Shelly Silver engaged in is.

Funny how that goes.

These "grassroots" education groups, funded with millions of dollars of hedge fund and banker money from a few individuals, are buying politicians to push their agenda, yet it's the "powerful" teachers unions and individual teachers who are the "special interests" and Sheldon Silver who's the criminal.

Trading Places: Education Edition

A commenter at Perdido Street School blog responds to Ruben Diaz Sr.'s assertion that the NYCDOE dumps the "worst teachers" into the Bronx:

NYCDOE dumps "the worst teachers" in the city into the Bronx? Seriously Lord Cuomo? In your blackest heart of hearts do you really believe this? And you really believe that the "best teachers" can close the learning gap produced by generational poverty and the hopelessness it breeds?

Then take this simple suggestion: A "Trading Places" pilot program that would save a lot of time, money, and energy. Take the best 8th grade math and ELA teachers in your Byram Hills district and switch them with the "worst" math and ELA teachers in the Bronx. Give it two years to be fair - and watch the miracle happen. Those "worst" teachers from the Bronx will suddenly find themselves on the highly effective list. What simple way to improve teacher performance. And its free. Oh, and those Byram Hills teachers - you can simply fill their resignations with some TFAers.

A fantastic idea, and one that I think we should push.

Switch the "bad teachers" from the "failing schools" with the "excellent teachers" from the "excellent schools" and let's see how things look after two years.

Even have a dollar to put up for the bet.

What say you, Mortimer?

Randolph?

Ruben?

Andy?

Care for an experiment?

Cuomo Calls For Privatization Of "Failing" Schools

From the NY Post:

Gov. Cuomo, at another Bronx event, said 44 of the 178 schools in the state labeled as failing are in the borough. And 20 of those have been in the dismal category for a decade.

“You want to talk about a failure of government?” Cuomo said. “You want to talk about a scandal in government? To me that’s the scandal. It’s a total abrogation of the responsibility of government.”

He said schools that fail three straight years should be taken over by “a not-for-profit, another school district or a turnaround expert.”

Cuomo's call came after Ruben Diaz Sr., the only crook of the Four Amigos not in prison, said the NYCDOE dumps the "worst teachers" into his borough and called for Cuomo's education reform agenda, including a raising of the charter cap, to be passed in order to remedy that situation.

The Bronx has the highest rate of poverty in the nation, and there is plenty of research to show that the higher the rate of poverty, the more schools struggle.

Let's say Cuomo and Diaz get their way and huge swaths of the public school system are privatized, charters sprout up all over the place and "turnaround experts" pop up in every neighborhood to work their magic on failing schools.

Do Cuomo and Diaz really think the problems facing the public schools in the Bronx will be alleviated?

If so they should look at New Orleans to see how large-scale turnaround efforts go:

Post-Hurricane Katrina the Louisiana Department of Education (LDE) took over more than 107 public schools in New Orleans claiming that they were failing. Post–Katrina Education Reform has drastically rebuilt the public education system into practically an all charter system creating the largest percentage of charter schools than any city in the country. In developing reforms to rebuild New Orleans public schools, the state attracted more than three billion dollars from the philanthropic community, charter school proponents, foreign countries and the federal government. Over the last six years, numerous reports have been written citing the RSD with unprecedented success while proclaiming it as the national model for turning around urban school districts. Despite these reports of the miracle s in New Orleans, the reality is that the reform school district in New Orleans (Recovery School District) is one of the worst performing school districts in the state of Louisiana. In its recent assessment, the Louisiana State Department of Education ranked the Recovery School District academically 69th out of 70 school districts in Louisiana. Despite the billions of dollars, despite all of the media spin, and despite claims from state education officials, the education reforms in New Orleans have failed (Deshotels) 

But I don't think Cuomo and Diaz really believe in turnaround miracles - this just about the payoffs they're getting from the charter industry and their hedge fund and Wall Street backers to privatize as many schools as they can

Because both Cuomo and Diaz are on the charter payroll, that's for sure.

And there's lot of money to be made working that angle.

Doesn't Ruben Diaz Sr. Belong In Jail Too?

I'm going to leave the rebuttal of the ridiculous charge made by State Senator Ruben Diaz Sr. that the teachers union protects sex predator teachers to my friend, NYC Educator, who does an admirable job of dispensing with that myth here.

But so long as State Senator Ruben Diaz Sr. is smearing innocent people as "sex creeps" and "sex predator teachers" even though they have been exonerated of allegations and charged with no crimes, I'm wondering if we can talk about how it is he has managed to avoid indictment up there in Albany.

Diaz was connected to a corruption scandal that took out his pal, Pedro Espada (now serving five years in prison) back in 2012.

Here is how the NY Post described that scandal in March of that year:

It was a tough week for state Sen. Ruben Diaz Sr. 
 
On Monday, Attorney General Eric Schneiderman announced the indictment of Clement Gardner, CFO of the Christian Community Benevolent Association — a nonprofit founded by Diaz in 1977 and which he ran until 2003.

On Wednesday, the federal corruption trial of Diaz’s friend and former colleague, ex-Sen. Pedro Espada, got under way.

In charges first brought to light in years of Post reporting, Espada is accused of looting hundreds of thousands from the Medicaid-funded Soundview Health Care Network to finance his lavish lifestyle and employ numerous relatives and associates.

The two cases shed light on New York’s kleptocratic culture, in which politicians use taxpayer dollars to enhance their political and personal status.

Schneiderman charges that Gardner embezzled as much as $400,000 from CCBA between January 2004 and May 2007 — a time when Diaz was showering the organization with cash through the corrupt member-item pork-barrel process.

Between 2003 and 2005, Diaz and his son, then-Assemblyman (now Bronx Borough President) Ruben Diaz Jr., reportedly directed $940,000 in member-item support to CCBA — a charity for the elderly and needy that would contribute nice sums to other Diaz-connected political organizations. In 2006 and 2007, Diaz the elder authorized another $500,000.

So, with $1.4 million in public money pouring in, should anyone be surprised that CFO Gardner — also Diaz’s onetime campaign treasurer — opted to help himself to some of the goodies?

Diaz claims to be “shocked” over the arrest, but isn’t worried that he might be implicated in the AG’s investigation, because “I’m not in the business of taking; I’m in the business of giving.”

Well, thanks for the clarity, senator.

That sentiment perfectly captures the essence of the culture: It’s about “giving,” all right — giving away other people’s money to friends, family members and “community” cronies.

Clearly, Espada was a “giving” guy, too — giving Soundview-related jobs to his uncle, son, daughter-in-law and son’s mistress, among others.

Whether Diaz turns out to be as nakedly crooked as Espada remains to be seen — that’s a pretty high standard — but both stand as poster boys of an ingrained, corrupt culture of spreading around taxpayer dollars for political and private gain.

Espada isn't the only convicted criminal Diaz liked to pal around with.

As the NY Times reported in March 2012, two other close political associates and friends of Diaz's, Carl Kruger and Hiram Montserrate, are also in prison for corruption.

Ruben Diaz, along with Espada, Montserrate and Kruger, was once part of a group of State Senators so close they were known as the "Four Amigos."

You can see the "Four Amigos," sans prison stripes, enjoying a bite to eat in the photo at the top of this post.

Diaz is the only one at that table not currently serving time in prison on corruption charges.

Somehow Diaz has managed to escape indictment, but given how close he was to the other three criminals and given all the funkiness around his non-profit, you can see where some might question his innocence.

Diaz himself scolded the press for convicting him in the public discourse when no charges have been filed against him by federal or state prosecutors but he seems to have no problem doing the same to NYC schoolteachers.

You see, in Diaz's world, allegations are enough to prove guilt and convict - at least when it comes to teachers.

But under that worldview, shouldn't Ruben Diaz Sr. be sharing a prison cell with his friends and partners in crime, Pedro Espada, Hiram Montserrate and Carl Kruger?

I mean, it's hard to believe he wasn't stealing along with his other three good amigos.

Sure, we don't have any proof of that criminal action, but who needs proof, facts or evidence when allegations alone are enough to prove guilt and convict?