Bill Thompson is the Democrat voted most likely to benefit from Weiner’s unlikely candidacy.
He’s the only African-American contender, and there’s not much chance of black voters suddenly jumping ship for a flawed white candidate.
“If I were Thompson, I’d just stay out of any fight and let everyone beat each other up,” recommended consultant Michael Tobman, who is not affiliated with a mayoral campaign.
Thompson’s performance on the campaign trail has been flat.
So the intense media focus on Weiner gives Thompson a chance to glide, at least for a while. City Council Speaker Christine Quinn doesn’t have that luxury.
Her once-dominant lead in the polls has come down to earth, and both she and Weiner are going after the same moderate white Democratic voters in Queens.
Weiner’s old congressional district included parts of the borough where he once lived. The second day of his campaign, Weiner dropped by three Queens weekly newspapers for editorial-board meetings. It wasn’t coincidental.
Public Advocate Bill de Blasio is, as one analyst put it, “in a pickle.”
With deep roots in Brooklyn, he’s been counting on landing a large chunk of the ethnic white vote that hasn’t warmed to Quinn.
“Now they have another place to go,” said the analyst, referring to Weiner. “De Blasio’s path was difficult before. Now it’s extra difficult.”
Thompson's stuck somewhere between 10% and 13% of the vote.
So is de Blasio.
Quinn has fallen from 37% to 25%
Weiner cannot get elected, but he sure does make the race much more like 1977:
In 1977, things got ugly when a large field of evenly matched Democrats went at it in a fierce primary. Remember “Vote for Cuomo, not the homo”? Ed Koch ended up winning that contest with 19.8 percent of the vote, followed by Mario Cuomo at 18.7, Abe Beame at 18, Bella Abzug at 17, Percy Sutton at 14.4, and Herman Badillo at 11.
We'll see what happens.
Maybe more photos of Weiner come out and he's forced out again.
That might be the best thing that could happen.
No comments:
Post a Comment