Marist Poll: De Blasio 36%, Quinn 20%, Thompson 20%

Just out:

Bill de Blasio, the Democratic mayoral candidate whose progressive message upended his party's primary campaign this summer, has widened his lead over his rivals just days before the election, a new poll shows.

De Blasio, the city's public advocate, has the support of 36 percent of likely Democratic voters, while his closest rivals, former Comptroller Bill Thompson and City Council Speaker Christine Quinn, are tied at distant second with 20 percent each, the NBC 4 New York/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll found. 

The poll reveals that de Blasio's populist, left-wing appeal to disenfranchised New Yorkers is cutting into voting blocs that would traditionally go to his rivals.

More blacks back de Blasio than Thompson, the race's only black candidate, by 39 percent to 25 percent. And more women support de Blasio than Quinn, the race's only female and once the clear front-runner, by 34 percent to 21 percent.

The winner of Tuesday's primary needs 40 percent to avoid a runoff.

The results reflect trends seen in earlier polls that showed de Blasio gaining ground through the summer, moving from the middle of the pack to first.

"The surge is real," said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. "Right now he's within striking distance of 40 percent. And if he doesn't reach 40 percent, he would certainly be the early favorite for the runoff."

For Quinn and Thompson, the battle is going to be a) to keep de Blasio under 40% and b) to be the second candidate in the race.

Even if one of them makes a runoff with de Blasio, de Blasio is beating them - Thompson by 12, Quinn by 22.

Only Thompson has a shot to beat de Blasio in a runoff.

Right now it's not clear either one is making that runoff with de Blasio.

De Blasio can thank Bloomberg for yesterday's "De Blasio is a racist" gift, because that ate up two news cycles from Thompson and Quinn.

I will be out with predictions and endorsements tomorrow morning, but as we see from the numbers, Thompson and Quinn are in trouble.

Oh, and in the comptroller's race:

Spitzer 47%, Stringer 45% in the Marist poll.

Spitzer's under 50%, he does not have much of a GOTV operation and Stringer has the establishment and the unions on his side.

Spitzer is in trouble in that race.