Perdido 03

Perdido 03

Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Cuomo Wins, But...

Exit polls have him at 57%.

He won 63% in 2010.

His dad won 65% his first re-election campaign.

Schumer and Gillibrand have won elections with over 70% of the vote.

If Cuomo wins near where the exit polls have him, it's a solid win, but it's nothing to write home about.

He outspent his GOP opponent, Rob Astorino, by tens of millions of dollars.

Astorino got no help from the Republican establishment in the state and the head of the Republican Governors Association, Chris Christie, went out of his way to call Astorino a loser and help Cuomo out instead.

The unions made sure Cuomo wouldn't have a third party candidate from the left on the Working Families Party ballot line today, and while Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins was polling near double digits in some of the public polls, the exit polls have him closer to 5%.

That means Cuomo had himself a two man race, a helluva lot more money than his GOP opponent, and a Republican Party establishment that was either helping Cuomo or sitting out the race.

Of course Cuomo won tonight.

But given all the advantages he had in this campaign, he ought to have run away with the night, beaten his 2010 totals, and set himself up for a decent White House run in the future.

If the exit polls are right (and they just might be - the last public poll, Marist, had him at 56% a few days ago), he hasn't done that.

According to the exit polls, his vote totals among all demographics except white women are lower this year than they were four years ago- with white women his totals are the same as they were four years ago.

In short, Cuomo won the election tonight, but it's not exactly a ringing endorsement for another four years.


  1. I was very depressed last night at bedtime because Cuomo's numbers were very high. According to Channel 1 this morning, Andy only had 54% of the vote, and Astorino 41%. The good news is that Howie did well enough with his 5% for the Greens to move up from Row F to Row D. I will be interested to hear your final assessment on the race. I'm disappointed that Cuomo did was well as he did, but still it wasn't great. I had also hoped that Howie would do a little better--I really worry about fracking.

    1. Looks like Cuomo's numbers might be closer to 52.64%: