Perdido 03

Perdido 03

Wednesday, May 25, 2016

Gaming Out A Post-De Blasio City Hall

After weeks of getting hammered by news that there are multiple federal investigations into his fundraising, Mayor Bill de Blasio's poll support has fallen to its lowest levels ever in the latest Quinnipiac poll.

That's not a surprise, given the coverage of those stories, coupled with the tabloid headlines.

The Q poll has de Blasio down to 41% approval, 52% disapproval.

Against potential challengers, de Blasio fares poorly:

The poll also tests him against potential Democratic challengers running as independents. Mr. de Blasio wins 37% to 36% against Comptroller Scott Stringer, 35% to 34% over Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams and 37% to 32% over Bronx Borough President Ruben Diaz Jr. None of the men has declared as candidates for 2017.

They didn't test the Eva Moskowitz shill, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, but I would imagine Jeffries would fare somewhere between Diaz' and Stringer 's numbers.

Ken Sherrill says there's still time for de Blasio to turn things around:

Kenneth Sherrill, a professor emeritus of political science at Hunter College, said the numbers are “a warning signal” that the mayor needs to make changes.

“He’s lost control of the debate. He’s not setting the agenda. In some ways he might seem to be acting as someone with something to hide,” Mr. Sherrill said.

“But people might be for the most part paying attention to the presidential race. He has a lot of time to make some changes. I don’t think this is fatal.”

I am less convinced about that.

Given the number of investigations, given the press coverage he's garnering, given the "Agents of the City" nonsense he offered to keep some correspondence secret, I think we can conclude in the immortal words of Michael Ray Richardson that "This ship be sinking."

Leaving aside who might run as a Republican for now, the Dems appear to be Stringer, Diaz, perhaps Jeffries and perhaps Adams (though Adams continues to say he is not interested in running until 2021 - when de Blasio's second term would be over, assuming he's not in prison by then.)

Whether there are tweaks to mayoral control or not, the next mayor will have great power and influence over the school system.

De Blasio has been Bloomberg Lite on schools, saying some of the right things about testing, teachers, school closures, et al., but really changing little from the Bloomberg Years.

The morale in the school system is lower now than even during the Bloomberg Years, as the UFT has become essentially a company union that works in concert with Chancellor Farina and Mayor de Blasio.

These days I feel "Meh" about a de Blasio loss (or arrest), though I am concerned about what comes next.

An Eva shill like Jeffries or Diaz is particularly concerning, though that kind of ascension to City Hall could theoretically get the UFT out of its company union status and force them to stand up to out-of-control administrators and other abuses.

Couple of things to think about regarding this - there are more health care plan "savings" benchmarks to be hit in the next couple of years (i.e., we pay more, city saves more) and the contract expires in 2018 but the "retro" goes through 2020.

There's lots of damage a pro-charter, pro-reformer mayor can do.

Given that, I suppose if I had to back a horse in a primary race, I'd take Stringer, though I don't trust him much.

Given his hostile relationship with Moskowitz and past support from the UFT, I suppose he would be the least bad choice.

I have a difficult time seeing Diaz run citywide, especially given the corruption he and his family have been involved in.

But that doesn't mean he won't run, though I suppose what Jeffries does could influence what Diaz does because Eva and the charter shills are going to want just one horse in a primary race against de Blasio.

Cuomo's no doubt pulling strings to try and get challengers to run against de Blasio, but he's got his own scandal trouble with the federal investigations into his economic development programs and campaign donors, so I'm not sure how much juice he'll really have here.

In any case, all of this really depends on how these investigations into de Blasio turn out.

If there are indictments of his top people, he's got serious political trouble, but if he's indicted himself, well, that's game over.

It's difficult to take out an incumbent mayor in New York City, but it's not impossible, and looking at how may headwinds de Blasio's got blowing against him, that near impossibility appears to get more possible by the day.

Thoughts?

9 comments:

  1. Just noticed you're back. Sooooooo happy!

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  2. The best scenario is not allowing any mayor (good,bad,and/or ugly) to have control of schools. I agree with you on most points - DeBlasio has been on a sleigh ride down Mt. Everest since his first days in office and he hasn't come to a stop yet. Stringer will be the next mayor, according to my tea leaves. The other candidates are too polarizing and most people have had enough of that.

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  3. Justice delayed is justice denied!

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  4. Great piece. I agree that Stringer, although a machine politician, would be the best possible successor as he gave us Patrick Sullivan on the Panel for Educational Policy and let Patrick do what was right.

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  5. Stringer's mom was a teacher (I'm pretty sure). Wish he wasn't so connected to Cuomo.

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  6. Stringer is so bogus in so many ways - his big claim is beating Eva in the Man bor pres election.
    Republicans are pushing my local city councilman Erich Ulrich who is very young and was a Bloomberg guy -- but for a local rep has done pretty well and is popular here in Rockaway.

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  7. Gia lee for mayor

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