Final Quinnipiac Poll: De Blasio 39%, Thompson 25%, Quinn 18%

From Bloomberg News:

Bill de Blasio has support from 39 percent of likely Democratic voters, just shy of the 40 percent he needs in tomorrow’s election to avoid a runoff with his closest competitor, according to a Quinnipiac University poll.

De Blasio, 52, elected four years ago to the citywide watchdog office of public advocate, retains the lead among seven candidates. Former city Comptroller William Thompson has 25 percent and City Council Speaker Christine Quinn has 18 percent. About 8 percent were undecided, and 18 percent said they may change their minds, according to the poll released today, which has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

“There are no undecided voters on Election Day,” said Maurice Carroll, director of the Hamden, Connecticut-based Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “If de Blasio picks up just a few of those undecided voters, he’s over the top.”

Thompson appeared to gain support in the last few days of polling, Carroll said. A Sept. 3 Quinnipiac poll gave de Blasio 43 percent -- enough to put him above the 40 percent threshold to avoid an Oct. 1 runoff between winner and runner-up. In the poll taken a week ago, Thompson had 20 percent and Quinn, 18 percent.

That 43% for de Blasio in the last Q-poll was way too high.

As I wrote earlier today, I think de Blasio is somewhere between 36%-39% and will face a runoff with Bill Thompson.

I think de Blasio will win that runoff, barring something unforeseen as of this moment.

Today's Qunnipiac poll does nothing to change my mind about this.

The UFT can crow that they got Thompson into the runoff, they got him extra votes this last week.

They may be right about that.

To be frank, without the UFT supporting Thompson, he would in Quinn's range.

He's a terrible candidate running an anemic race.

That said, he does still have a shot to beat de Blasio in a runoff.

The race is not over by any means.

Tomorrow we have the primary.

In two weeks, we will most likely have a runoff.

And while Thompson has an uphill battle in that runoff, he can still win it.

Just something to keep in mind if you're a teacher.

New Times-Siena Poll: Quinn, Thompson, De Blasio

From the NY Times:

Christine C. Quinn is leading the crowded field in the Democratic primary race for New York City mayor, lifted by support among Manhattanites and higher-income voters, the latest New York Times/Siena College poll finds. 

But just over a month before the Sept. 10 primary, Ms. Quinn is still well below the level needed to avoid a runoff, and many voters remain undecided.

Ms. Quinn, the City Council speaker, is backed by 25 percent of Democratic voters, followed by 16 percent for William C. Thompson Jr., a former city comptroller, and 14 percent for Bill de Blasio, the public advocate. 

Anthony D. Weiner garners the support of 10 percent of Democratic voters, confirming his slippage in the race that other surveys have also recorded since revelations that he continued to have sexually explicit exchanges with women online after he resigned from Congress two years ago. The remaining candidates in the poll each drew less than 5 percent; 26 percent of the Democratic voters surveyed were undecided.

The key takeaways:

Quinn is nowhere near avoiding a runoff.

Thompson and De Blasio are neck in neck in this poll to face Quinn in a runoff.

There are 26 percent undecideds.

Weiner is done.

Harry Enten puts this poll and every other poll taken so far in perspective:

Finally, NYC races traditionally change most after August 20th... so take this and every poll for what it is... A snapshot, nothing more.
— Harry Enten (@ForecasterEnten) August 9, 2013

We're getting close to that time, but we're not there yet.

Right now we still have a two person race between Thompson and De Blasio to take on Quinn in the runoff.

Whichever of those two wins has a good chance to beat Quinn in a runoff.

But we'll see - it's been a crazy race so far, lots of twists and turns, so who knows where we go from here?