Less than a month ago, we were looking at a Christine Quinn/Anthony Weiner race with Bill Thompson and Bill De Blasio as also-rans.
With today's Quinnipac poll showing Bill De Blasio in front with 30%, Christine Quinn mired in the mid-twenties and Bill Thompson barely behind her in third place, we are now looking at an extremely interesting race.
Quinn is in trouble. She loses big in a runoff to De Blasio and loses
handily to Thompson in a runoff too. She's been on the air for weeks
now with her ads, she has the highest name recognition of any candidate
except Weiner, but she seems to have hit her ceiling of support.
They'll
go at De Blasio now, so we'll have to see if he can handle scrutiny.
And let's remember, this is just the Quinnipiac poll. We'll have to see what the next
Marist poll shows, what next week's Siena poll shows.
But between the very good press De Blasio has gotten of late, yesterday's Stop And
Frisk ruling and now the Quinnipiac poll, it's a good time to be Bill De Blasio, the progressive candidate in the race.
It
is now plausible that we could see a Thompson/De Blasio runoff.
Harry Enten and some other people were talking about this on Twitter.
How's
that for crazy?
Just last month we were concerned we were going to be stuck with a Weiner/Quinn runoff to take on Joe Lhota in the general election and now there's a possibility we could have a Thompson/De Blasio runoff with both Quinn and Weiner out on September 10.
Well, there's a long way to go - Quinn's not dead yet.
But if you're a teacher looking for a decent candidate to replace Mayor Bloomberg, things are looking up.
I must admit Weiner looked great and he won the debate. John Liu also came up strong and I expect both of them to improve in the next group of polls.
ReplyDeleteBy contrast Christine Quinn was mediocre as she spent must of the time defending her record.
De Blasio and Thompson were good and should end up as the two finalist in the runoff.
Chaz,
DeleteWe'll see if it's Thompson and De Blasio in the runoff. If that's how it plays out, it's pretty good for us, especially since less than one month ago, we were looking at Weiner/Quinn.
Read about last nights debate Quinn took it on the chin as all other dem's attacked her for term limits. How does it look for the others supporting ABQ after the primary?
ReplyDeleteQuinn loses a runoff to Thompson by 10%, to De Blasio by something like 16%. She has a lot of people who won't vote for her and this hurts her very badly in a two person race.
DeleteBut that's assuming she even makes the runoff. You can see a scenario where Thompson, who just went up with his ads, grabs enough votes, along with de Blasio to put her a close third - not enough to get her in a runoff.
We'll see - a long time to go yet. But things are looking up if you are ABQ and ABW.