De Blasio Avoids Criminal Charges

Politico NY:

Mayor Bill de Blasio and his aides will not face criminal charges for their role in soliciting donations for the mayor's campaign and an affiliated nonprofit group, prosecutors announced on Thursday morning.

In separate statements, the Manhattan district attorney's office and the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District announced they had concluded their months-long investigations into whether the mayor or his aides had acted illegally in soliciting donations and providing special access to donors who gave to de Blasio or his nonprofit group, the Campaign for One New York

This all be assures that de Blasio will win re-election in November:

Bradley Tusk, a former aide to Michael Bloomberg who has publicly encouraged Democrats to challenge de Blasio, said the mayor is now likely to coast to re-election.

"Although the city deserves far better than this, the people best positioned to succeed in a Democratic primary are now unlikely to run, and we should therefore expect four more years of Bill de Blasio," Tusk said in a statement.

If Tusk is throwing in the towel against de Blasio, well, that's a pretty good sign de Blasio's re-election is all but a done deal.

De Blasio To Be Questioned Today By Federal Prosecutors In Corruption Probe

Today's the day:

Reporters outside loading dock of Manhattan building where federal corruption probers are reportedly set to question @NYCMayor @BilldeBlasio pic.twitter.com/uka0RfRGwG

— Matthew Chayes (@chayesmatthew) February 24, 2017

the tabloids appear to be relishing Mayor de Blasio's reported plan to meet with federal prosecutors today pic.twitter.com/fIY0tYr9Ek

— Colin Campbell (@colincampbell) February 24, 2017

The NY Times sets the stage:

Ending months of anticipation and speculation, Mayor Bill de Blasio will meet on Friday with federal prosecutors and F.B.I. agents who have been investigating the mayor’s campaign fund-raising for nearly a year, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

A grand jury has heard evidence in the case, some of the people have said, but it remains unclear whether the investigation, focused on whether the mayor or others in his administration traded beneficial city action for donations to his 2013 election campaign or to his now-defunct nonprofit political group — or both — will result in charges. Either way, the interview is an indication that the expansive criminal inquiry is most likely in its final stages.

...

The mayor is expected to be questioned on Friday morning in a conference room at Kramer Levin’s offices in Midtown Manhattan, according to the people with knowledge of the planned session, which they said is expected to last about four hours. The prosecutors and agents want to question the mayor about more than a dozen topics.

In addition to investigating whether the city took any action on behalf of Mr. Indig as a result of his support for the mayor, the prosecutors and agents are also likely to focus on a number of other donors who have come under scrutiny, including two who have been of intense interest to prosecutors. They are Harendra Singh and Gina Argento.

The Times also has a bit a "new" news:

In recent weeks, investigators appear to have focused on a relatively new area in the inquiry, looking into the mayor’s relationship with a Brooklyn businessman who hosted a fund-raiser for him in October 2013, after the Democratic primary but before the general election, according to two of the people. Like others interviewed for this article, they declined to comment because they were not authorized to discuss the continuing investigation.

In recent weeks, investigators appear to have focused on a relatively new area in the inquiry, looking into the mayor’s relationship with a Brooklyn businessman who hosted a fund-raiser for him in October 2013, after the Democratic primary but before the general election, according to two of the people. Like others interviewed for this article, they declined to comment because they were not authorized to discuss the continuing investigation.

 Louis Flores on what may be going on here:

Friday’s tête-à-tête btwn de Blasio and Preet's prosecutors is "a proffer session" https://t.co/K2RAyPUBrV

— Louis Flores (@maslowsneeds) February 24, 2017

Proffer or "queen for a day" letters are written agreements between federal prosecutors and individuals under criminal investigation.... pic.twitter.com/VWsXYzndHn

— Louis Flores (@maslowsneeds) February 24, 2017

de Blasio’s aides fear he will ‘sacrifice’ them to the Feds #profferagreement #nonprosecutionagreement https://t.co/DtF49LcJmN #Preet

— Louis Flores (@maslowsneeds) February 24, 2017

You can bet Hakeem Jeffries, Scott Stringer, Ruben Diaz Jr and other potential challengers are watching what happens today and ensuing days closely.

So far, no serious challenger to the embattled de Blasio has emerged but clearly an indictment of de Blasio on corruption charges will set off a free-for-all in the Dem primary.

It's difficult to say what indictments of current and/or former aides do to de Blasio's 2017 re-election chances - it all depends on how much residual damage is done to de Blasio if/when that happens.

De Blasio has led a bit of a charmed life these past few months, having much of the news around the corruption investigations buried under an avalanche of Trump news while de Blasio attempted to become the local face of opposition to Trump's policies on immigration, health care, etc.

Other pols - including Governor Cuomo - have attempted similar anti-Trump PR efforts recently (see here and here, for example.)

Both Cuomo and de Blasio are using the Trump election for their own ends of course (Cuomo as rationale for 2020 White House run, de Blasio as rallying cry and distraction from his corruption woes), but in another way the Trump election has helped de Blasio out - it's given Cuomo something else to shoot for instead of de Blasio himself.

For the last few years Cuomo has spent much of his free time looking for ways to torture de Blasio, including looking for potential challengers to the mayor for 2017, but with the Trump administration ensconced in Washington, Cuomo appears to have lost his relish for de Blasio combat and begun setting his sights on a 2020 run instead.

As a result, de Blasio appears to have a pretty easy time of it in his re-election bid - barring criminal charges and/or residual damage some to him by criminal charges on people around him that is.

But that could all change today.

We'll know soon enough. 

As the Times reported, the questioning of de Blasio today means the investigation is about to come to a close.

Odds On De Blasio's Re-Election

Telling statement from Hakeem Jeffries, charter school shill and oft-rumored Cuomo fave for running against de Blasio in a Democratic primary for mayor, in this Wall Street Journal piece on de Blasio's chances for re-election:

“Short of the investigations showing anything happening to Bill de Blasio, it’s not clear to me that he has anything to be concerned about with respect to his re-election,” said U.S. Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, a Democrat who represents portions of Brooklyn and Queens. “It’s always difficult to unseat an incumbent when the economy and public safety numbers are not subject to heavy criticism.”

Sounds like Jeffries is going to stay in Congress, doesn't it?

Unless those investigations into de Blasio turn up something, of course - but no one seems to know what's going on with any of this:

Here's how the WSJ reports on potential challengers to de Blasio:

City Comptroller Scott Stringer, a Democrat, has privately told consultants and others that whether anyone is indicted has significant sway over whether he runs, people familiar with those discussions said. Mr. Stringer has said he wants to be ready to announce by the end of the year, but isn’t committed and is less likely to run if no one is charged, they said.

Bronx Borough President Ruben Diaz Jr., another Democrat, also has expressed an interest in running but remains unsure if Mr. de Blasio is beatable, a person familiar with the matter said, and believes his chance at being competitive hinges in part on the investigations.

Mr. Jeffries said he is unlikely to run but would make a decision after November. Real-estate executive Paul Massey has said he would seek the Republican mayoral nomination, but it is unclear how formidable a GOP contender would be next year.

Diaz Jr has been investigated in the past by the feds and comes from a family with a history of corruption, so I remain skeptical that's the guy who gets to run successfully against de Blasio on the morals/ethics issue.

As for Massey, a real estate exec running for mayor of NYC? 

Good luck with that.

My thinking on that is, you want to be from a different industry with real estate money backing you to win (you know, like de Blasio...) 

If Jeffries doesn't run (and it sure sounds like he isn't), then only with Stringer do you have a realistic challenger to de Blasio, but until/unless we get more on the investigations in the next few months, Stringer's going to have to sit on his ambition and wait.

Post Cuomo administration indictments, I'm not convinced indictments of de Blasio staff and/or donors will be a fatal shiv for his re-election.

An indictment of the mayor himself would be.

Like everyone else, we'll just have to wait and see.

As a little tea leaf reading, a couple of weeks ago Preet made a de Blasio joke at a public function:

It seems that U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara’s recent slapping of federal charges on Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s closest associates in an alleged bid-rigging scheme has emboldened him to take jabs at just about everyone—right up to Mayor Bill de Blasio and his infamous affinity for traveling all the way to his old neighborhood of Park Slope to exercise at the YMCA during working hours.

Bharara was honored as “Newsmaker of the Decade” by City & State and served as keynote speaker at its 10th anniversary gala tonight at Vermilion Restaurant in Midtown Manhattan.

...
 

The federal prosecutor didn’t reference the case against Cuomo’s top lieutenants, but instead poked fun at another target of his recent investigations: de Blasio, who faces federal probes into his police department and defunct political nonprofits.

Bharara tweaked the mayor’s fondness for traveling 12 miles from his Gracie Mansion home to the Park Slope YMCA—a subject he hates to talk about—and his preference for eating pizza with utensils—known jokingly as “Forkgate.” He praised City & State for choosing Vermilion Restaurant as a venue, saying that he understood it to be “Indian fusion” which resonated well with him because “I’m kind of Indian fusion myself”—but he said de Blasio would prefer the gym if it were an event for him.

“If it had been Mayor de Blasio, we’d all be eating at the Park Slope YMCA,” Bharara said, as attendees shouted “Ooh!” and laughed raucously, “and we’d eat pizza with a knife and fork. It’s just jokes.”

Would Bharara be making Park Slope and pizza jokes about de Blasio if he were going to arrest him on corruption charges in the near future?

Seems weird, but maybe I'm overthinking it.

Bharara Warns Cuomo And De Blasio He's Coming For Them

Preet Bharara was on ABC this morning with a warning for both Andrew Cuomo and Bill de Blasio:

Manhattan US Attorney Preet Bharara publicly put Mayor de Blasio and Gov. Cuomo on notice Sunday that he’s actively searching for evidence of corruption in their branches of government.

“We have found that corruption is rife in a lot of institutions in New York and throughout New York,” Bharara said during a national TV interview.

“That’s true in the legislature. It’s also the case that there’s corruption, we believe, in the executive branches as well. And we’ll ferret it out wherever we find it.”

Bharara’s stinging comments on ABC News’ “This Week with George Stephanopoulos” come amid probes by his office into fund-raising efforts by Mayor de Blasio and suspected bid-rigging in state-funded development projects.

They also followed an interview last month in which Bharara bristled at the suggestion that Cuomo had been cleared of wrongdoing when Bharara declined to charge him for unexpectedly shutting down the anti-corruption Moreland Commission in 2014.

“Nobody gave a clean bill of health to anybody. A non-indictment is not an endorsement of anyone’s conduct,” Bharara told the New Yorker in what the magazine described as “an uncharacteristically icy tone.”

Cuomo's administration is the subject of a massive federal investigation into his economic development projects all over the state.

Cuomo's top former aide, Joe Percoco, is one focus of that investigation.

A second is another former Cuomo aide and close associate, Todd Howe.

A third is SUNY Poly head Alain Kaloyeros, Cuomo's man in charge of the economic development projects.

As the Post piece notes, de Blasio is the subject of a few investigations too.

The election is coming in November, so if anything is going to come of these investigations, it will come before then.

It's not a mistake that Bharara was on ABC News this morning to talk about corruption in the executive branches in this state.

That's a little head nod that something's coming soon.

We know that one of de Blasio's fund raisers is cooperating with the feds, so my guess is, the de Blasio investigations will get movement first.

But there's a lot going on with the Cuomo investigations too.

There's no certainty that Cuomo's going to go down, but given the subpoenas that went out across the state as part of the investigation into his economic development programs, you can pretty much bet some of those associates of his are going down.

And there's an outside chance that after some squeezing, some of those associates will have tales to trade to prosecutors for lighter sentences.

One way or another, it's beginning to sound a lot like Preetmas.

Closing In On De Blasio

From the NY Times:

Three New York Police Department commanders were arrested on Monday, along with a Brooklyn businessman, on federal corruption charges linked to one of several continuing investigations into Mayor Bill de Blasio’s campaign fund-raising.

The arrests were one of the most significant roundups of police supervisors in the recent history of the department — a deputy chief and a deputy inspector accused of accepting expensive gifts from two politically connected businessmen who prosecutors say were seeking illicit favors from the police.

In court papers unsealed on Monday, federal agents describe how the two men, who are at the center of one of the City Hall fund-raising inquiries, showered gifts on senior police officials: jewelry for the police inspector’s wife; a video game system for the chief’s children; tickets to Brooklyn Nets games; hotel rooms in Rome and Chicago; even a private-jet flight to Las Vegas, with a prostitute on board.

The police officers arrested on Monday were Deputy Chief Michael J. Harrington, 50; Deputy Inspector James M. Grant, 43; and Sgt. David Villanueva, 42, who was charged in a separate but related scheme involving gun licenses. The businessman arrested was Jeremiah Reichberg, 42, of Borough Park, Brooklyn.

The other businessman, Jona S. Rechnitz, 33, has pleaded guilty and has provided information in the police case and in at least one of the fund-raising investigations focused on Mr. de Blasio, a Democrat, and his inner circle, according to several people familiar with the case.

Let's repeat that last part:

The other businessman, Jona S. Rechnitz, 33, has pleaded guilty and has provided information in the police case and in at least one of the fund-raising investigations focused on Mr. de Blasio, a Democrat, and his inner circle, according to several people familiar with the case.

Bharara said yesterday “there is no allegation that has anything to do with the mayor anywhere” in the court documents.

But the news that Rechnitz is providing information in the case against the cops and at least one of the cases focused on de Blasio suggests it is only a matter of time before some of the people around de Blasio - and perhaps de Blasio himself - have their own day in court.

Stringer Readies Primary Challenge Against De Blasio

Ross Barkan in New York Magazine:

With next year’s election looming on the horizon, the progressive mayor is becoming vulnerable to a primary challenge.

While a few prominent local politicians are toying with the idea, it’s City Comptroller Scott Stringer who seems to be getting the most serious about taking on de Blasio. He held a fundraiser on Tuesday night and is quietly assembling a campaign team. Elected to his citywide post in 2013, Stringer has talked up the possibility of challenging de Blasio to several Democrats over the last two months, and his chief of staff has approached at least one veteran Democratic operative about signing on to a potential bid next year.

“Stringer sees that de Blasio is weaker and more vulnerable than ever before because of the multiple scandals facing City Hall,” said a party insider familiar with Stringer’s thinking. “That’s why it’s no surprise Stringer’s political team is reaching out to consultants and operatives to gauge their interest about a 2017 mayoral bid.”

If you're looking to make book on Stringer's chances compared to other New York pols rumored to be considering challenges:

A range of Democratic sources who are aware of Stringer’s plans say he is the most hungry among a group of potential challengers that also includes Bronx borough president Rubén Díaz and Rep. Hakeem Jeffries. Stringer has more than $1 million in his campaign account, according to the latest filings. De Blasio has about $890,000 in his 2017 account, and may not be able raise cash as readily as a typical incumbent, given his investigatory woes.

Stringer's plan is to run against de Blasio as a liberal who can get things done - only without the corruption.

We learned recently that Eva Moskowitz is pushing Ruben Diaz Jr. to run against de Blasio.

Given past corruption involving the Diaz family - including Ruben Diaz Jr. himself - I have a difficult time seeing Diaz Jr. take out de Blasio based on a "He's Corrupt!" campaign message.

But Stringer on the other hand...well, that's certainly conceivable.

In any case, I'm beginning to think de Blasio himself is going to be indicted on corruption charges.

The leaks we're getting on the mayor's scandals are beginning to hint at just that - take last night's leak for instance.

That's the way Preet works - ready the public for high profile arrests with leaks.

He did this with Shelly Silver, he did this with Dean Skelos.

We'll see how this all shakes out, but the way things look right now, at best de Blasio's in serious trouble and facing a primary challenge from a well-funded, well-connected Stringer while at worst, he's going to be carted out in cuffs to join Silver and Skelos in ignominy.

As for teachers supporting Stringer as a better alternative to de Blasio, pay attention to some of Stringer's backers:

One advantage Stringer has over Díaz and Jeffries is a large orbit of loyalists in the public and private sector that has been privately compared to a “Ready for Hillary” operation. They include Audrey Gelman, his former press secretary; Micah Lasher, attorney general Eric Schneiderman’s former chief of staff and a candidate for State Senate on the Upper West Side; Amy Rutkin, Rep. Jerry Nadler’s chief of staff; and Camille Joseph, deputy comptroller for public affairs and Anthony Weiner’s former campaign manager. Any 2017 bid would also likely involve Anson Kaye, a Hillary Clinton ad-maker and top strategist on Stringer’s comptroller campaign. At the center of it all, there's Sascha Owen, Stringer's current chief of staff and former campaign manager.

Micah Lasher is a former StudentsFirstNY guy and Bloomberg aide.

I've been off the de Blasio bandwagon for a while now but I wouldn't be all that thrilled to back a mayoral candidate whose large orbit of loyalists includes Micah Lasher.

Barkan writes that it's not a done deal that Stringer runs, he wants to see how the investigations proceed and if de Blasio's poll numbers continue to fall.

But given the news de Blasio's facing these days, with his chief fundraiser the focus of a federal investigation and stories about de Blasio's afternoon's at Bar Toto making fundraising calls with said chief fundraiser, I can't imagine things are going to get better for him any time soon.

Investigators Focus On De Blasio's Chief Fundraiser

Enjoy that one year mayoral control extension, Bill - you're probably not going to make it to renewal time:

Federal and state investigators have received thousands of documents related to New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio’s fundraising activities and have begun interviewing some of his donors, people familiar with the matter said.

Investigators have focused on specific donors to Mr. de Blasio as they examine whether the mayor and his allies traded favorable government action for contributions to his various political efforts, including Mr. de Blasio’s 2014 campaign to bring the state Senate under Democratic control, people familiar with the matter said.

...

As part of the records demand, investigators from the Manhattan district attorney’s office, the U.S. attorney’s office in Manhattan and the Federal Bureau of Investigation have received a trove of documents, including internal emails, evidence of financial transactions and correspondence between the mayor’s political operation and county political committees, people familiar with the matter said.

The documents have come from city aides, political consultants close to the mayor and a number of donors who are cooperating, people familiar with the matter said.

The authorities are looking, in particular, at any donations that appeared to coincide with favorable official action by Mr. de Blasio’s administration, these people said. One person said the authorities are examining when donors’ communications with city officials occurred in conjunction with interactions with Mr. de Blasio’s fundraising staff.

According to people familiar with the matter, one person under scrutiny is Ross Offinger, who served as a fundraiser for the mayor’s 2013 campaign and for the Campaign for One New York, a nonprofit organized by the mayor’s allies and dedicated to the mayor’s agenda. In March, the Campaign for One New York announced it would shut down its operations.

Messrs. de Blasio and Offinger worked together on fundraising, sometimes sitting together on afternoons at Bar Toto in Brooklyn making calls, according to people familiar with the matter.

So let's say the feds pick up Offinger and ask him, "What do you have to trade for a lighter sentence?"

Think he'll bring up any of those afternoons at Bar Toto making fundraising calls with de Blasio?

Oh, you bet he will.

So far in the Cuomo investigation, there's no inkling yet that the feds are closing in on Cuomo himself - just the people around him.

But in the de Blasio investigation?

They're closing in on him.

Moskowitz Backs Corrupt Ruben Diaz Jr. To Take On Corrupt Bill de Blasio

This is funny:

Success Academy CEO Eva Moskowitz may not be running for mayor in 2017, but she's raised money for a potential candidate charter school supporters are hoping can unseat Mayor Bill de Blasio — Bronx Borough President Ruben Diaz Jr.

Moskowitz finished bundling nearly $15,000 for Diaz in May 2015 — six months before she held a press conference on the steps of City Hall to announce she would not challenge de Blasio in 2017, even though she’d been hinting at a run all summer. The early fundraising effort demonstrates that the city’s charter sector, and its legion of wealthy supporters on Wall Street, are open to a Diaz candidacy, should he choose to challenge de Blasio.

Moskowitz appears to have held a fundraiser for the borough president on July 22, 2014 — nine of the 11 contributions were made on that date — and then did a second round of fundraising on May 7, 2015, when she netted two more contributions for Diaz.

A spokesman for Moskowitz declined to answer questions for this story, including why she raised money for Diaz when she was still indicating her own interest in running for mayor, and why she supports Diaz’s potential bid.

Diaz’s 2017 campaign account does not indicate what office he is seeking, and he has not ruled out a potential run for mayor. He has raised $833,924 and spent $372,912, campaign finance records show. De Blasio, by comparison, has raised a little more than $1.1 million and spent $244,761.

De Blasio's vulnerable to a challenger next year because of all the corruption probes, but here's the thing about Moskowitz backing Diaz Jr. for a run against the mayor:

Diaz Jr.has his own corruption problems.

Take this story from the NY Times in 2007, for example:

The Federal Bureau of Investigation is investigating allegations of corruption against two Bronx lawmakers — State Senator Rubén Díaz Sr. and his son, Assemblyman Rubén Díaz Jr., according to an official familiar with the investigation who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

The investigation, first reported by The Daily News, came to light on Thursday, when F.B.I. agents visited the city’s Board of Elections office in the Bronx seeking voter petitions and other records for the elder Mr. Díaz and his son. The agents obtained copies of their personal voter registration and voter history records as well as candidate petitions signed by voters, a Board of Elections spokeswoman said.

And this NY Post story from 2012:

It was a tough week for state Sen. Ruben Diaz Sr. 
 
On Monday, Attorney General Eric Schneiderman announced the indictment of Clement Gardner, CFO of the Christian Community Benevolent Association — a nonprofit founded by Diaz in 1977 and which he ran until 2003.

On Wednesday, the federal corruption trial of Diaz’s friend and former colleague, ex-Sen. Pedro Espada, got under way.

In charges first brought to light in years of Post reporting, Espada is accused of looting hundreds of thousands from the Medicaid-funded Soundview Health Care Network to finance his lavish lifestyle and employ numerous relatives and associates.

The two cases shed light on New York’s kleptocratic culture, in which politicians use taxpayer dollars to enhance their political and personal status.

Schneiderman charges that Gardner embezzled as much as $400,000 from CCBA between January 2004 and May 2007 — a time when Diaz was showering the organization with cash through the corrupt member-item pork-barrel process.

Between 2003 and 2005, Diaz and his son, then-Assemblyman (now Bronx Borough President) Ruben Diaz Jr., reportedly directed $940,000 in member-item support to CCBA — a charity for the elderly and needy that would contribute nice sums to other Diaz-connected political organizations. In 2006 and 2007, Diaz the elder authorized another $500,000.

So, with $1.4 million in public money pouring in, should anyone be surprised that CFO Gardner — also Diaz’s onetime campaign treasurer — opted to help himself to some of the goodies?

Diaz claims to be “shocked” over the arrest, but isn’t worried that he might be implicated in the AG’s investigation, because “I’m not in the business of taking; I’m in the business of giving.”

Well, thanks for the clarity, senator.

That sentiment perfectly captures the essence of the culture: It’s about “giving,” all right — giving away other people’s money to friends, family members and “community” cronies.

Diaz Jr. has managed to mostly avoid scrutiny from the press because he hasn't run for a citywide office yet.

That will change if and when he decides to run for mayor.

It's one thing to challenge a sitting mayor running for re-election because said mayor appears to be corrupt and is facing five corruption probes.

It's another thing to challenge a mayor over corruption when you're corrupt yourself, as Ruben Diaz Jr. appears to be.

Moskowitz's backing of Diaz Jr. shows you how desperate she is to try and get some Eva-friendly face back in City Hall.

With the other Eva-friendly pol, Congressman Hakeem Jeffries, saying (at least for now) that he wants to stay in Congress, Diaz Jr. may be Eva's best bet, but he surely is not a good one.

Even a routine Google search of "Ruben Diaz Jr." and "Corruption" pulls up some interesting information.

Imagine what we'll learn after Diaz Jr. announces a run and somebody drops the oppo research on Diaz Jr. and his corrupt family.

Is De Blasio Next?

The NY Times:

Of all the charges and the allegations in a 17-page criminal complaint accusing a powerful New York City union leader of corruption, perhaps the most far-reaching development was woven into the legal boilerplate, essentially hiding in plain sight.

A person, referred to as “CW-1,” for Cooperating Witness 1, had agreed to cooperate with federal prosecutors and the Federal Bureau of Investigation.

The cooperator’s name was not mentioned in the complaint unsealed on Wednesday, but several people with knowledge of the matter said it was Jona S. Rechnitz, a central figure in one of the half-dozen continuing federal corruption investigations focused on Mayor Bill de Blasio’s fund-raising.

Mr. Rechnitz, who has generously supported several of Mr. de Blasio’s interests and served on the mayor’s inaugural committee, has pleaded guilty to fraud conspiracy charges in connection with the corruption case against Norman Seabrook, the influential leader of the union that represents the city’s correction officers, and another defendant, according to the complaint.

But the significance of his decision to join the roster of government witnesses could go far beyond the case against the union leader, and have wide-ranging consequences for Mr. de Blasio.

The complaint in the corruption case, along with statements by Preet Bharara, the United States attorney for the Southern District of New York (whose office brought it), and interviews with people with knowledge of the fund-raising inquiries, strongly suggest that Mr. Rechnitz could serve as an important witness in at least one of the fund-raising matters.

At a news conference on Wednesday announcing the charges against Mr. Seabrook, Mr. Bharara declined to answer questions about the identity of CW-1 and the degree to which the witness could be helpful in other cases.

But he noted that “the complaint does say that he is assisting other investigations as well; that’s all I’ll say.”

And:

While Mr. Bharara also declined to answer questions about the fund-raising inquiries during the news conference, he left little doubt that there were more public corruption cases on the horizon.

“As those of you who come here often appreciate, it is seldom the case that the bringing of a particular charge at a particular date is the end of the matter,” he said. “We’re still investigating lots of different things, and you should expect to see me again.”

Ominous words for Bill de Blasio, that's for sure.

De Blasio's Pay-To-Play Spreadsheet

Ken Lovett in today's Daily News:

When Mayor de Blasio began handing out prestigious appointments to obscure boards and committees in his first months in City Hall, he turned to a system of cash for cachet.

His team assembled an elite spreadsheet of major campaign donors, powerful lobbyists and celebrities as candidates for the coveted slots doled out by de Blasio.

This internal spreadsheet — obtained by the Daily News — reveals a blatant and highly choreographed effort to reward donors and New York power players with high-profile VIP appointments.

The 2014 list even goes so far as to suggest that de Blasio appoint lobbyists who were and are actively lobbying his administration on behalf of their wealthy clients.

At least 14 of the mayor’s top “bundlers” who used a legal loophole to collect big bucks far in excess of donation restrictions made the list. So did four early donors to de Blasio’s now-defunct lobbying group, the Campaign for One New York.

“Confidential notes” on the list reveal the candidate’s business ties, but do not highlight actual qualifications for specific appointments. They do, however, reference support for the mayor, sometimes in financial terms.

Candidates are described as “with us early on,” “did a lot,” “real deal” and “showed up early.” One states “decent amount,” an apparent reference to the candidate’s fund-raising for the mayor.

You know Cuomo's got a list just like this, only he's smart enough not to put it in writing so that it ends up leaked to the Daily News.

That's why the public thinks Cuomo's an ethical prince while de Blasio, well, good luck in prison, Bill.

Gaming Out A Post-De Blasio City Hall

After weeks of getting hammered by news that there are multiple federal investigations into his fundraising, Mayor Bill de Blasio's poll support has fallen to its lowest levels ever in the latest Quinnipiac poll.

That's not a surprise, given the coverage of those stories, coupled with the tabloid headlines.

The Q poll has de Blasio down to 41% approval, 52% disapproval.

Against potential challengers, de Blasio fares poorly:

The poll also tests him against potential Democratic challengers running as independents. Mr. de Blasio wins 37% to 36% against Comptroller Scott Stringer, 35% to 34% over Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams and 37% to 32% over Bronx Borough President Ruben Diaz Jr. None of the men has declared as candidates for 2017.

They didn't test the Eva Moskowitz shill, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, but I would imagine Jeffries would fare somewhere between Diaz' and Stringer 's numbers.

Ken Sherrill says there's still time for de Blasio to turn things around:

Kenneth Sherrill, a professor emeritus of political science at Hunter College, said the numbers are “a warning signal” that the mayor needs to make changes.

“He’s lost control of the debate. He’s not setting the agenda. In some ways he might seem to be acting as someone with something to hide,” Mr. Sherrill said.

“But people might be for the most part paying attention to the presidential race. He has a lot of time to make some changes. I don’t think this is fatal.”

I am less convinced about that.

Given the number of investigations, given the press coverage he's garnering, given the "Agents of the City" nonsense he offered to keep some correspondence secret, I think we can conclude in the immortal words of Michael Ray Richardson that "This ship be sinking."

Leaving aside who might run as a Republican for now, the Dems appear to be Stringer, Diaz, perhaps Jeffries and perhaps Adams (though Adams continues to say he is not interested in running until 2021 - when de Blasio's second term would be over, assuming he's not in prison by then.)

Whether there are tweaks to mayoral control or not, the next mayor will have great power and influence over the school system.

De Blasio has been Bloomberg Lite on schools, saying some of the right things about testing, teachers, school closures, et al., but really changing little from the Bloomberg Years.

The morale in the school system is lower now than even during the Bloomberg Years, as the UFT has become essentially a company union that works in concert with Chancellor Farina and Mayor de Blasio.

These days I feel "Meh" about a de Blasio loss (or arrest), though I am concerned about what comes next.

An Eva shill like Jeffries or Diaz is particularly concerning, though that kind of ascension to City Hall could theoretically get the UFT out of its company union status and force them to stand up to out-of-control administrators and other abuses.

Couple of things to think about regarding this - there are more health care plan "savings" benchmarks to be hit in the next couple of years (i.e., we pay more, city saves more) and the contract expires in 2018 but the "retro" goes through 2020.

There's lots of damage a pro-charter, pro-reformer mayor can do.

Given that, I suppose if I had to back a horse in a primary race, I'd take Stringer, though I don't trust him much.

Given his hostile relationship with Moskowitz and past support from the UFT, I suppose he would be the least bad choice.

I have a difficult time seeing Diaz run citywide, especially given the corruption he and his family have been involved in.

But that doesn't mean he won't run, though I suppose what Jeffries does could influence what Diaz does because Eva and the charter shills are going to want just one horse in a primary race against de Blasio.

Cuomo's no doubt pulling strings to try and get challengers to run against de Blasio, but he's got his own scandal trouble with the federal investigations into his economic development programs and campaign donors, so I'm not sure how much juice he'll really have here.

In any case, all of this really depends on how these investigations into de Blasio turn out.

If there are indictments of his top people, he's got serious political trouble, but if he's indicted himself, well, that's game over.

It's difficult to take out an incumbent mayor in New York City, but it's not impossible, and looking at how may headwinds de Blasio's got blowing against him, that near impossibility appears to get more possible by the day.

Thoughts?

Over/Under On A De Blasio Indictment

That's the front cover of the NY Post and it refers to this (which is actually from the NY Times):

To most, they are known by their public personas as speechwriters, political consultants or, in one case, a United States ambassador to South Africa.

But to the office of New York’s mayor, they have another identity: agents of the city.

What makes them unique, the office argued on Thursday, is that the communications between Mayor Bill de Blasio and the five close advisers should be as immune from public scrutiny as those of any city employee.

City Hall described the designation amid mounting scrutiny over its shielding of communications between the mayor and Jonathan Rosen, whom the counsel to the mayor described at a news conference on Wednesday as an “agent of the city.” Mr. Rosen, who corresponds and meets with the mayor regularly, is also a principal at a public affairs consulting firm, BerlinRosen, whose clients include real estate developers and nonprofits.

Others on the list provided on Thursday rounded out a who’s who of figures often cited by government watchdog groups as representing New York’s “shadow government” under Mr. de Blasio: Nicholas Baldick and Bill Hyers, of Hilltop Public Solutions, a political consulting firm; John Del Cecato, of AKPD Message and Media, who has helped Mr. de Blasio write important speeches; and the United States ambassador, Patrick Gaspard.

None received payment from the city, the mayor’s office said. But with the exception of Mr. Gaspard, each represents a firm that got large payments from Mr. de Blasio’s political nonprofit, the Campaign for One New York, now at the center of several inquiries into the mayor’s fund-raising efforts.

One firm, BerlinRosen, has received subpoenas in connection with investigations by the United States attorney for the Southern District of New York and the Manhattan district attorney into Mr. de Blasio’s fund-raising on behalf of Senate Democrats in 2014.

The notion of designating a special class of unpaid advisers — many of whom also represent clients with business before the city — appeared to be an unusual, if not novel, approach to city governance, former officials said. City Hall, however, was careful to clarify that “agent of the city” is not an official designation.

Agent of the city.

When you start doing shit like this, you know the end is near.