De Blasio To Be Questioned Today By Federal Prosecutors In Corruption Probe

Today's the day:

Reporters outside loading dock of Manhattan building where federal corruption probers are reportedly set to question @NYCMayor @BilldeBlasio pic.twitter.com/uka0RfRGwG

— Matthew Chayes (@chayesmatthew) February 24, 2017

the tabloids appear to be relishing Mayor de Blasio's reported plan to meet with federal prosecutors today pic.twitter.com/fIY0tYr9Ek

— Colin Campbell (@colincampbell) February 24, 2017

The NY Times sets the stage:

Ending months of anticipation and speculation, Mayor Bill de Blasio will meet on Friday with federal prosecutors and F.B.I. agents who have been investigating the mayor’s campaign fund-raising for nearly a year, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

A grand jury has heard evidence in the case, some of the people have said, but it remains unclear whether the investigation, focused on whether the mayor or others in his administration traded beneficial city action for donations to his 2013 election campaign or to his now-defunct nonprofit political group — or both — will result in charges. Either way, the interview is an indication that the expansive criminal inquiry is most likely in its final stages.

...

The mayor is expected to be questioned on Friday morning in a conference room at Kramer Levin’s offices in Midtown Manhattan, according to the people with knowledge of the planned session, which they said is expected to last about four hours. The prosecutors and agents want to question the mayor about more than a dozen topics.

In addition to investigating whether the city took any action on behalf of Mr. Indig as a result of his support for the mayor, the prosecutors and agents are also likely to focus on a number of other donors who have come under scrutiny, including two who have been of intense interest to prosecutors. They are Harendra Singh and Gina Argento.

The Times also has a bit a "new" news:

In recent weeks, investigators appear to have focused on a relatively new area in the inquiry, looking into the mayor’s relationship with a Brooklyn businessman who hosted a fund-raiser for him in October 2013, after the Democratic primary but before the general election, according to two of the people. Like others interviewed for this article, they declined to comment because they were not authorized to discuss the continuing investigation.

In recent weeks, investigators appear to have focused on a relatively new area in the inquiry, looking into the mayor’s relationship with a Brooklyn businessman who hosted a fund-raiser for him in October 2013, after the Democratic primary but before the general election, according to two of the people. Like others interviewed for this article, they declined to comment because they were not authorized to discuss the continuing investigation.

 Louis Flores on what may be going on here:

Friday’s tête-à-tête btwn de Blasio and Preet's prosecutors is "a proffer session" https://t.co/K2RAyPUBrV

— Louis Flores (@maslowsneeds) February 24, 2017

Proffer or "queen for a day" letters are written agreements between federal prosecutors and individuals under criminal investigation.... pic.twitter.com/VWsXYzndHn

— Louis Flores (@maslowsneeds) February 24, 2017

de Blasio’s aides fear he will ‘sacrifice’ them to the Feds #profferagreement #nonprosecutionagreement https://t.co/DtF49LcJmN #Preet

— Louis Flores (@maslowsneeds) February 24, 2017

You can bet Hakeem Jeffries, Scott Stringer, Ruben Diaz Jr and other potential challengers are watching what happens today and ensuing days closely.

So far, no serious challenger to the embattled de Blasio has emerged but clearly an indictment of de Blasio on corruption charges will set off a free-for-all in the Dem primary.

It's difficult to say what indictments of current and/or former aides do to de Blasio's 2017 re-election chances - it all depends on how much residual damage is done to de Blasio if/when that happens.

De Blasio has led a bit of a charmed life these past few months, having much of the news around the corruption investigations buried under an avalanche of Trump news while de Blasio attempted to become the local face of opposition to Trump's policies on immigration, health care, etc.

Other pols - including Governor Cuomo - have attempted similar anti-Trump PR efforts recently (see here and here, for example.)

Both Cuomo and de Blasio are using the Trump election for their own ends of course (Cuomo as rationale for 2020 White House run, de Blasio as rallying cry and distraction from his corruption woes), but in another way the Trump election has helped de Blasio out - it's given Cuomo something else to shoot for instead of de Blasio himself.

For the last few years Cuomo has spent much of his free time looking for ways to torture de Blasio, including looking for potential challengers to the mayor for 2017, but with the Trump administration ensconced in Washington, Cuomo appears to have lost his relish for de Blasio combat and begun setting his sights on a 2020 run instead.

As a result, de Blasio appears to have a pretty easy time of it in his re-election bid - barring criminal charges and/or residual damage some to him by criminal charges on people around him that is.

But that could all change today.

We'll know soon enough. 

As the Times reported, the questioning of de Blasio today means the investigation is about to come to a close.

Barring Indictment, De Blasio Looks Like He'll Get A Fairly Easy Run At Re-Election

Two pieces of New York City mayoral race news today.

First, as expected, Hakeem Jeffries declined to run against de Blasio:

Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, a Brooklyn Democrat, said Tuesday he will not run for mayor of New York City — leaving one less potential challenger for Mayor Bill de Blasio as he faces re-election later this year.

"The stakes are so high in Washington D.C. right now, and I want to be part of the effort to turn the situation around," Jeffries said in an interview. "It would be a dereliction of duty to abandon ship at the moment when times are tough."

...

Jeffries said de Blasio has benefited from the election of President Donald Trump, and the palpable anger and fear in New York City toward the president. More than 80 percent of the city's voters voted against Trump, and de Blasio has positioned himself in the city as standing up to Trump on immigration and other issues.

"The phenomenon has benefited the mayor because it's taken a lot of attention off of City Hall," Jeffries said.

Jeffries said "top-tier candidates" are still looking to the investigations to see if they "potentially change the dynamic."

"It's not clear to me that there's a meaningful candidate prepared to step forward at the moment," he said.

Next up, GOP hopeful/real estate developer Paul Massey had a press conference today that, well, let's just say didn't go so well.  Here's a play-by-play in tweets:

Republican mayoral candidate Paul Massey holds press conference at City Hall, criticizing Mayor de Blasio for "unprecedented" corruption pic.twitter.com/A7Pt14m5AZ

— Samar Khurshid (@samarkhurshid) February 21, 2017

New York GOP mayoral candidate Paul Massey declines to offer policy specifics in first campaign event. Hello 2017 https://t.co/JvTAzUmfqG

— Mara Gay (@MaraGay) February 21, 2017

"We'll make it different almost immediately," Massey says when @chayesmatthew presses him for details on his homelessness plan

— Mara Gay (@MaraGay) February 21, 2017

"I haven't established an answer," Paul Massey says when Bloomberg's @hgoldman77 asks if he supports expanding stop and frisk like Trump

— Mara Gay (@MaraGay) February 21, 2017

Less than 9 months to Election Day, it's surprising that @MasseyForMayor hasn't identified a position on this core criminal justice issue. https://t.co/GjSmbIljIF

— Dean Chang (@dchangnyt) February 21, 2017

@HyersBill Was on life support anyway since GOP real estate developer not great candidate for Trump Era. But yikes!

— rbe (@perdidostschool) February 21, 2017

And so, we appear to have two potential challengers to de Blasio taken out of the equation in one day.

It's been rumored for a while now that Jeffries, who has been elevated into the Democratic leadership in the House, was going to decline to run for mayor, so that announcement wasn't much of a surprise.

But the Massey presser, well, that was a bit of a surprise to me.

Given that we're now in the Trump Era, it was going to be a heavy lift for Massey, a Republican real estate developer, to win post November 2016, but to be honest, I always assumed he was a bit more serious as a candidate than what showed up today.  How could he not have an answer for the stop-and-frisk issue?

You can see the whole Massey presser here at his Facebook page - assuming they don't take it down to try and undo some of the damage.

Go on and watch it and you tell me if he's somebody who can win a mayor's race in NYC during the Trump Era - from what I see so far, it's unlikely.

As for other potential opponents, Scott Stringer has apparently all but ruled out a run (barring something extraordinary coming from the Southern District of New York on de Blasio) and the air around Ruben Diaz Jr. has grown awfully quiet on that front as well.

That leaves this guy who raised $750 last quarter and left the mainstream Democratic conference in the state Senate to join the breakaway, Republican-allied Independent Democratic Conference, a group of faux Dems growing increasingly unpopular in the Trump Era:

And maybe this guy:

Councilman Dan Garodnick, a Manhattan Democrat who lost his bid to become the City Council Speaker in 2014, has talked with donors, consultants and others about running for mayor. Garodnick has told these people he would want a one-on-one race with de Blasio and would be interested if he saw a path, but isn't sure if there is one.

Asked about the conversations, Garodnick declined to comment. "I am exploring my options as I am term-limited," he said. Garodnick had previously denied he was considering a mayoral run.

Oh, and an ex-Jet with about as much chance of winning City Hall as the Jets had of winning the Super Bowl last year.

And there was that rumor about Hillary Clinton maybe running for mayor, but that's pretty much bullshit.

None of this is going to matter in a race against de Blasio where he has managed to make labor peace with the cops, other unions (including the UFT) have endorsed him, and he continues to enjoy popular support in the black community.

So from what I can see, the biggest opponent de Blasio appears to have for re-election right now is U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara.

No wonder the UFT jumped aboard the de Blasio Express when they did. 

Barring something coming from Bharara, it looks like de Blasio is going to waltz to November relatively unscathed.

Somewhere Bradley Tusk weeps.

Looks Like Criminal Charges Are Coming For Some De Blasio Cronies

Preet Bharara leaking to the NY Times:

Two separate grand juries in Manhattan have begun hearing testimony in connection with federal and state criminal investigations into Mayor Bill de Blasio’s campaign fund-raising, according to several people with knowledge of the matters.

It was unclear whether either inquiry would result in criminal charges against the mayor, but the grand jury activity appeared to be the strongest indication since the investigations came to light in April that prosecutors may be moving closer to one or more indictments, possibly against some of Mr. de Blasio’s closest aides.

The inquiries have centered on Mr. de Blasio, a Democrat, and several of his senior aides, according to the people with knowledge of the matter, all of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity because grand jury proceedings are secret.

The state investigation has focused on whether the mayor, or those acting with him or on his behalf, violated state election law by raising hundreds of thousands of dollars through three upstate county committees and funneling it to Democratic candidates during the party’s unsuccessful 2014 bid to gain control of the State Senate.

The questions asked by state prosecutors in their grand jury presentations suggest their inquiry is in some measure centered on Emma Wolfe, Mr. de Blasio’s top political aide, Ross A. Offinger, who was then his campaign finance director, and Josh Gold, a union political operative who worked on the 2014 Senate effort, the people with knowledge of the inquiry said.

The federal investigation has examined whether Mr. de Blasio or his aides took beneficial action on behalf of donors in exchange for contributions they had made to his 2013 mayoral campaign, his political nonprofit or both in roughly a half-dozen instances, according to people with knowledge of that inquiry.

Preet doesn't leak this kind of shit without criminal charges coming soon after, so it's almost a done deal that Wolfe, Offinger, Gold or all three are going to get charged with something in the near future.

Whether de Blasio gets charged, difficult to say at this point - but one of the guy's turning state's evidence is the same guy who turned on Ed Mangano in Nassau County, so you never know.

Cuomo had a bunch of his cronies indicted but most New York City residents have no idea that happened - it didn't get much coverage in the media down here.

That's Cuomo - he leads a real charmed life.

If de Blasio's aides are charged, however, you can bet there'll be a free-for-all over it in the media and it will do real damage to de Blasio.

So far Sal Albanese has announced he's running for mayor and faux Democrat Tony Avella has set up a committee to explore a mayoral run.

I think if charges come for de Blasio's aides, we'll see more jump in the race.

The ones to watch are Scott Stringer and charter school shill Ruben Diaz Jr. - do either or both jump in if de Basio appears wounded by these grand jury investigations?

I would've had another charter school shill on the list for potential jump-in's but Congressman Hakeem Jeffries is now in a leadership position with House Democrats, so it's unlikely he jumps in.

We'll see how all this plays out, but once again, Preet's in the seat bringing more heat - and this time it's aiming at Bill de Blasio.

No matter what happens, I remain dubious about Diaz Jr. running as the clean candidate against de Blasio when he comes from a family with such a history of corruption.

But we'll see.

Odds On De Blasio's Re-Election

Telling statement from Hakeem Jeffries, charter school shill and oft-rumored Cuomo fave for running against de Blasio in a Democratic primary for mayor, in this Wall Street Journal piece on de Blasio's chances for re-election:

“Short of the investigations showing anything happening to Bill de Blasio, it’s not clear to me that he has anything to be concerned about with respect to his re-election,” said U.S. Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, a Democrat who represents portions of Brooklyn and Queens. “It’s always difficult to unseat an incumbent when the economy and public safety numbers are not subject to heavy criticism.”

Sounds like Jeffries is going to stay in Congress, doesn't it?

Unless those investigations into de Blasio turn up something, of course - but no one seems to know what's going on with any of this:

Here's how the WSJ reports on potential challengers to de Blasio:

City Comptroller Scott Stringer, a Democrat, has privately told consultants and others that whether anyone is indicted has significant sway over whether he runs, people familiar with those discussions said. Mr. Stringer has said he wants to be ready to announce by the end of the year, but isn’t committed and is less likely to run if no one is charged, they said.

Bronx Borough President Ruben Diaz Jr., another Democrat, also has expressed an interest in running but remains unsure if Mr. de Blasio is beatable, a person familiar with the matter said, and believes his chance at being competitive hinges in part on the investigations.

Mr. Jeffries said he is unlikely to run but would make a decision after November. Real-estate executive Paul Massey has said he would seek the Republican mayoral nomination, but it is unclear how formidable a GOP contender would be next year.

Diaz Jr has been investigated in the past by the feds and comes from a family with a history of corruption, so I remain skeptical that's the guy who gets to run successfully against de Blasio on the morals/ethics issue.

As for Massey, a real estate exec running for mayor of NYC? 

Good luck with that.

My thinking on that is, you want to be from a different industry with real estate money backing you to win (you know, like de Blasio...) 

If Jeffries doesn't run (and it sure sounds like he isn't), then only with Stringer do you have a realistic challenger to de Blasio, but until/unless we get more on the investigations in the next few months, Stringer's going to have to sit on his ambition and wait.

Post Cuomo administration indictments, I'm not convinced indictments of de Blasio staff and/or donors will be a fatal shiv for his re-election.

An indictment of the mayor himself would be.

Like everyone else, we'll just have to wait and see.

As a little tea leaf reading, a couple of weeks ago Preet made a de Blasio joke at a public function:

It seems that U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara’s recent slapping of federal charges on Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s closest associates in an alleged bid-rigging scheme has emboldened him to take jabs at just about everyone—right up to Mayor Bill de Blasio and his infamous affinity for traveling all the way to his old neighborhood of Park Slope to exercise at the YMCA during working hours.

Bharara was honored as “Newsmaker of the Decade” by City & State and served as keynote speaker at its 10th anniversary gala tonight at Vermilion Restaurant in Midtown Manhattan.

...
 

The federal prosecutor didn’t reference the case against Cuomo’s top lieutenants, but instead poked fun at another target of his recent investigations: de Blasio, who faces federal probes into his police department and defunct political nonprofits.

Bharara tweaked the mayor’s fondness for traveling 12 miles from his Gracie Mansion home to the Park Slope YMCA—a subject he hates to talk about—and his preference for eating pizza with utensils—known jokingly as “Forkgate.” He praised City & State for choosing Vermilion Restaurant as a venue, saying that he understood it to be “Indian fusion” which resonated well with him because “I’m kind of Indian fusion myself”—but he said de Blasio would prefer the gym if it were an event for him.

“If it had been Mayor de Blasio, we’d all be eating at the Park Slope YMCA,” Bharara said, as attendees shouted “Ooh!” and laughed raucously, “and we’d eat pizza with a knife and fork. It’s just jokes.”

Would Bharara be making Park Slope and pizza jokes about de Blasio if he were going to arrest him on corruption charges in the near future?

Seems weird, but maybe I'm overthinking it.

Stringer Readies Primary Challenge Against De Blasio

Ross Barkan in New York Magazine:

With next year’s election looming on the horizon, the progressive mayor is becoming vulnerable to a primary challenge.

While a few prominent local politicians are toying with the idea, it’s City Comptroller Scott Stringer who seems to be getting the most serious about taking on de Blasio. He held a fundraiser on Tuesday night and is quietly assembling a campaign team. Elected to his citywide post in 2013, Stringer has talked up the possibility of challenging de Blasio to several Democrats over the last two months, and his chief of staff has approached at least one veteran Democratic operative about signing on to a potential bid next year.

“Stringer sees that de Blasio is weaker and more vulnerable than ever before because of the multiple scandals facing City Hall,” said a party insider familiar with Stringer’s thinking. “That’s why it’s no surprise Stringer’s political team is reaching out to consultants and operatives to gauge their interest about a 2017 mayoral bid.”

If you're looking to make book on Stringer's chances compared to other New York pols rumored to be considering challenges:

A range of Democratic sources who are aware of Stringer’s plans say he is the most hungry among a group of potential challengers that also includes Bronx borough president Rubén Díaz and Rep. Hakeem Jeffries. Stringer has more than $1 million in his campaign account, according to the latest filings. De Blasio has about $890,000 in his 2017 account, and may not be able raise cash as readily as a typical incumbent, given his investigatory woes.

Stringer's plan is to run against de Blasio as a liberal who can get things done - only without the corruption.

We learned recently that Eva Moskowitz is pushing Ruben Diaz Jr. to run against de Blasio.

Given past corruption involving the Diaz family - including Ruben Diaz Jr. himself - I have a difficult time seeing Diaz Jr. take out de Blasio based on a "He's Corrupt!" campaign message.

But Stringer on the other hand...well, that's certainly conceivable.

In any case, I'm beginning to think de Blasio himself is going to be indicted on corruption charges.

The leaks we're getting on the mayor's scandals are beginning to hint at just that - take last night's leak for instance.

That's the way Preet works - ready the public for high profile arrests with leaks.

He did this with Shelly Silver, he did this with Dean Skelos.

We'll see how this all shakes out, but the way things look right now, at best de Blasio's in serious trouble and facing a primary challenge from a well-funded, well-connected Stringer while at worst, he's going to be carted out in cuffs to join Silver and Skelos in ignominy.

As for teachers supporting Stringer as a better alternative to de Blasio, pay attention to some of Stringer's backers:

One advantage Stringer has over Díaz and Jeffries is a large orbit of loyalists in the public and private sector that has been privately compared to a “Ready for Hillary” operation. They include Audrey Gelman, his former press secretary; Micah Lasher, attorney general Eric Schneiderman’s former chief of staff and a candidate for State Senate on the Upper West Side; Amy Rutkin, Rep. Jerry Nadler’s chief of staff; and Camille Joseph, deputy comptroller for public affairs and Anthony Weiner’s former campaign manager. Any 2017 bid would also likely involve Anson Kaye, a Hillary Clinton ad-maker and top strategist on Stringer’s comptroller campaign. At the center of it all, there's Sascha Owen, Stringer's current chief of staff and former campaign manager.

Micah Lasher is a former StudentsFirstNY guy and Bloomberg aide.

I've been off the de Blasio bandwagon for a while now but I wouldn't be all that thrilled to back a mayoral candidate whose large orbit of loyalists includes Micah Lasher.

Barkan writes that it's not a done deal that Stringer runs, he wants to see how the investigations proceed and if de Blasio's poll numbers continue to fall.

But given the news de Blasio's facing these days, with his chief fundraiser the focus of a federal investigation and stories about de Blasio's afternoon's at Bar Toto making fundraising calls with said chief fundraiser, I can't imagine things are going to get better for him any time soon.

Moskowitz Backs Corrupt Ruben Diaz Jr. To Take On Corrupt Bill de Blasio

This is funny:

Success Academy CEO Eva Moskowitz may not be running for mayor in 2017, but she's raised money for a potential candidate charter school supporters are hoping can unseat Mayor Bill de Blasio — Bronx Borough President Ruben Diaz Jr.

Moskowitz finished bundling nearly $15,000 for Diaz in May 2015 — six months before she held a press conference on the steps of City Hall to announce she would not challenge de Blasio in 2017, even though she’d been hinting at a run all summer. The early fundraising effort demonstrates that the city’s charter sector, and its legion of wealthy supporters on Wall Street, are open to a Diaz candidacy, should he choose to challenge de Blasio.

Moskowitz appears to have held a fundraiser for the borough president on July 22, 2014 — nine of the 11 contributions were made on that date — and then did a second round of fundraising on May 7, 2015, when she netted two more contributions for Diaz.

A spokesman for Moskowitz declined to answer questions for this story, including why she raised money for Diaz when she was still indicating her own interest in running for mayor, and why she supports Diaz’s potential bid.

Diaz’s 2017 campaign account does not indicate what office he is seeking, and he has not ruled out a potential run for mayor. He has raised $833,924 and spent $372,912, campaign finance records show. De Blasio, by comparison, has raised a little more than $1.1 million and spent $244,761.

De Blasio's vulnerable to a challenger next year because of all the corruption probes, but here's the thing about Moskowitz backing Diaz Jr. for a run against the mayor:

Diaz Jr.has his own corruption problems.

Take this story from the NY Times in 2007, for example:

The Federal Bureau of Investigation is investigating allegations of corruption against two Bronx lawmakers — State Senator Rubén Díaz Sr. and his son, Assemblyman Rubén Díaz Jr., according to an official familiar with the investigation who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

The investigation, first reported by The Daily News, came to light on Thursday, when F.B.I. agents visited the city’s Board of Elections office in the Bronx seeking voter petitions and other records for the elder Mr. Díaz and his son. The agents obtained copies of their personal voter registration and voter history records as well as candidate petitions signed by voters, a Board of Elections spokeswoman said.

And this NY Post story from 2012:

It was a tough week for state Sen. Ruben Diaz Sr. 
 
On Monday, Attorney General Eric Schneiderman announced the indictment of Clement Gardner, CFO of the Christian Community Benevolent Association — a nonprofit founded by Diaz in 1977 and which he ran until 2003.

On Wednesday, the federal corruption trial of Diaz’s friend and former colleague, ex-Sen. Pedro Espada, got under way.

In charges first brought to light in years of Post reporting, Espada is accused of looting hundreds of thousands from the Medicaid-funded Soundview Health Care Network to finance his lavish lifestyle and employ numerous relatives and associates.

The two cases shed light on New York’s kleptocratic culture, in which politicians use taxpayer dollars to enhance their political and personal status.

Schneiderman charges that Gardner embezzled as much as $400,000 from CCBA between January 2004 and May 2007 — a time when Diaz was showering the organization with cash through the corrupt member-item pork-barrel process.

Between 2003 and 2005, Diaz and his son, then-Assemblyman (now Bronx Borough President) Ruben Diaz Jr., reportedly directed $940,000 in member-item support to CCBA — a charity for the elderly and needy that would contribute nice sums to other Diaz-connected political organizations. In 2006 and 2007, Diaz the elder authorized another $500,000.

So, with $1.4 million in public money pouring in, should anyone be surprised that CFO Gardner — also Diaz’s onetime campaign treasurer — opted to help himself to some of the goodies?

Diaz claims to be “shocked” over the arrest, but isn’t worried that he might be implicated in the AG’s investigation, because “I’m not in the business of taking; I’m in the business of giving.”

Well, thanks for the clarity, senator.

That sentiment perfectly captures the essence of the culture: It’s about “giving,” all right — giving away other people’s money to friends, family members and “community” cronies.

Diaz Jr. has managed to mostly avoid scrutiny from the press because he hasn't run for a citywide office yet.

That will change if and when he decides to run for mayor.

It's one thing to challenge a sitting mayor running for re-election because said mayor appears to be corrupt and is facing five corruption probes.

It's another thing to challenge a mayor over corruption when you're corrupt yourself, as Ruben Diaz Jr. appears to be.

Moskowitz's backing of Diaz Jr. shows you how desperate she is to try and get some Eva-friendly face back in City Hall.

With the other Eva-friendly pol, Congressman Hakeem Jeffries, saying (at least for now) that he wants to stay in Congress, Diaz Jr. may be Eva's best bet, but he surely is not a good one.

Even a routine Google search of "Ruben Diaz Jr." and "Corruption" pulls up some interesting information.

Imagine what we'll learn after Diaz Jr. announces a run and somebody drops the oppo research on Diaz Jr. and his corrupt family.

Gaming Out A Post-De Blasio City Hall

After weeks of getting hammered by news that there are multiple federal investigations into his fundraising, Mayor Bill de Blasio's poll support has fallen to its lowest levels ever in the latest Quinnipiac poll.

That's not a surprise, given the coverage of those stories, coupled with the tabloid headlines.

The Q poll has de Blasio down to 41% approval, 52% disapproval.

Against potential challengers, de Blasio fares poorly:

The poll also tests him against potential Democratic challengers running as independents. Mr. de Blasio wins 37% to 36% against Comptroller Scott Stringer, 35% to 34% over Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams and 37% to 32% over Bronx Borough President Ruben Diaz Jr. None of the men has declared as candidates for 2017.

They didn't test the Eva Moskowitz shill, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, but I would imagine Jeffries would fare somewhere between Diaz' and Stringer 's numbers.

Ken Sherrill says there's still time for de Blasio to turn things around:

Kenneth Sherrill, a professor emeritus of political science at Hunter College, said the numbers are “a warning signal” that the mayor needs to make changes.

“He’s lost control of the debate. He’s not setting the agenda. In some ways he might seem to be acting as someone with something to hide,” Mr. Sherrill said.

“But people might be for the most part paying attention to the presidential race. He has a lot of time to make some changes. I don’t think this is fatal.”

I am less convinced about that.

Given the number of investigations, given the press coverage he's garnering, given the "Agents of the City" nonsense he offered to keep some correspondence secret, I think we can conclude in the immortal words of Michael Ray Richardson that "This ship be sinking."

Leaving aside who might run as a Republican for now, the Dems appear to be Stringer, Diaz, perhaps Jeffries and perhaps Adams (though Adams continues to say he is not interested in running until 2021 - when de Blasio's second term would be over, assuming he's not in prison by then.)

Whether there are tweaks to mayoral control or not, the next mayor will have great power and influence over the school system.

De Blasio has been Bloomberg Lite on schools, saying some of the right things about testing, teachers, school closures, et al., but really changing little from the Bloomberg Years.

The morale in the school system is lower now than even during the Bloomberg Years, as the UFT has become essentially a company union that works in concert with Chancellor Farina and Mayor de Blasio.

These days I feel "Meh" about a de Blasio loss (or arrest), though I am concerned about what comes next.

An Eva shill like Jeffries or Diaz is particularly concerning, though that kind of ascension to City Hall could theoretically get the UFT out of its company union status and force them to stand up to out-of-control administrators and other abuses.

Couple of things to think about regarding this - there are more health care plan "savings" benchmarks to be hit in the next couple of years (i.e., we pay more, city saves more) and the contract expires in 2018 but the "retro" goes through 2020.

There's lots of damage a pro-charter, pro-reformer mayor can do.

Given that, I suppose if I had to back a horse in a primary race, I'd take Stringer, though I don't trust him much.

Given his hostile relationship with Moskowitz and past support from the UFT, I suppose he would be the least bad choice.

I have a difficult time seeing Diaz run citywide, especially given the corruption he and his family have been involved in.

But that doesn't mean he won't run, though I suppose what Jeffries does could influence what Diaz does because Eva and the charter shills are going to want just one horse in a primary race against de Blasio.

Cuomo's no doubt pulling strings to try and get challengers to run against de Blasio, but he's got his own scandal trouble with the federal investigations into his economic development programs and campaign donors, so I'm not sure how much juice he'll really have here.

In any case, all of this really depends on how these investigations into de Blasio turn out.

If there are indictments of his top people, he's got serious political trouble, but if he's indicted himself, well, that's game over.

It's difficult to take out an incumbent mayor in New York City, but it's not impossible, and looking at how may headwinds de Blasio's got blowing against him, that near impossibility appears to get more possible by the day.

Thoughts?

De Blasio Support Up

Not the best poll numbers around but at least the hemorrhaging has been staunched for now:

Mayor Bill de Blasio’s approval rating has improved slightly over the last three months, with 50 percent of New York City voters now saying they approve of the job he is doing and 48 percent saying they believe he deserves a second term, according to a Quinnipiac poll released Tuesday.

An Oct. 29 Quinnipiac poll showed de Blasio with a near-record low approval rating of 45 percent. At the same time, 48 percent of voters said he did not deserve a second term.

“Not great, but better news for Mayor Bill de Blasio on two key questions: His overall job approval and whether he deserves re-election. They’re both up a bit since the last time we looked,” Maurice Carroll, the poll's assistant director, said in a release accompanying the poll results.

As for potential match-ups:

According to the poll, de Blasio would Stringer, 44 percent to 33 percent. He would defeat Kelly 50 percent to 35 percent and Diaz 47 percent to 25 percent, according to the poll.

Not sure why Hakeem Jeffries wasn't part of the potential match-ups but he wasn't.

Stringer's the closest to de Blasio, but keep in mind that's without any negative stuff run against him.

This poll found that 61% haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion of him.

If Stringer decides to take Sheriff Andy up on his "Somebody run against de Blasio!" gambit, you can bet he'll have to defend his record as comptroller - including the rather poor performance of the pension funds he oversees.

That might change things in a  head-to-head match-up against a sitting mayor.

As for Diaz, over 70% don't know enough about him to form an opinion.

If he runs, you can bet the ethically-challenged history of his family will come up for notice.

So all things considered, compared to where de Blasio was a few months ago, he appears to be stabilizing things politically, at least for now, and nobody on the potential opponent list is making that big a splash in the polling.

Eva Moskowitz's City Hall Steps Announcement

From the Daily News:

Charter school maven Eva Moskowitz – and major Mayor de Blasio foe – on Wednesday said she was holding a press conference on the steps of City Hall to make an announcement “concerning her political plans.”

The cryptic announcement contained no other details, but Moskowitz has said she is interested in running for mayor at some point.

"I believe I would have a lot to offer as mayor but the question for me is whether I could contribute more than I am now by running Success Academy," she said in a statement to Politico last month when asked about her mayoral plans.

Moskowitz, the head of the sprawling Success Academy Charter School network, has experience in politics.

She was a City Councilwoman for two terms, and chaired the education committee.

She also ran for Manhattan Borough President in 2005, but lost in a primary to Scott Stringer.

A spokesman for Moskowitz declined to say what Thursday’s announcement is about.

Only a totally insane person (see here) would announce a run for mayor for
November of 2017 in October of 2015, so let's assume that Eva, insane but not THAT insane, is making some other announcement.

My guess is, she's announcing that she will NOT run for mayor but is in process of putting together some grand scheme to help rid the city of the evil Bill de Blasio.

There's simply little chance for her to beat de Blasio in a primary or win as a Republican - not with her nasty temperament and reputation, not with the political demographics greatly favoring Dems.

A person of color without the baggage has the best shot to beat de Blasio in 2017 for the charter school shills.

That's either Hakeem Jeffries or Ruben Diaz Jr. 

As for how that plays out, well, Jeffries is the charter sector's best bet because Diaz comes from a corrupt family and I am not so sure he can survive the scrutiny of a city-wide campaign.

But we'll see - you never know with Eva.

Maybe she's got a beer hall putsch planned for tomorrow and wants the cameras there for her victory speech.

Ruben Diaz Jr. Declares Himself Pro-Charter, Looks To Use Issue For Mayoral Run

The pro-charter mayoral possibilities just keep coming.

So far we have Hakeem Jeffries and Eva Moskowitz on the list of potential mayoral candidates.

With this move, we can add Ruben Diaz Jr:

Bronx Borough President Ruben Diaz Jr., who has stayed out of the war over charter schools, has agreed to speak at a massive pro-charter event where he will defend the schools and declare, “Charters are here to stay.”

Although he heads a borough with 59 charter schools, Diaz has not been outspoken in the battles that have pitted charter-school operators against Mayor de Blasio and the teachers union.

That will change Wednesday when the six-year leader of The Bronx will speak at City Hall, where thousands of charter-school supporters are expected to converge following a rally at Cadman Plaza in Brooklyn and a march over the Brooklyn Bridge

“I support charter schools. I always have,” Diaz told The Post in an interview. “Charters schools are part of the public-school system. We need to offer all the support we can give them.”

The politics behind this are obvious:

Diaz dismissed talk that his role in the pro-charter rally is tied to a possible mayoral run in 2017.

“The education of children in The Bronx and the city of New York is way more important than anyone’s politics,” he said.

Political consultant George Arzt said Diaz’s decision to take such a high-profile role backing charters could distinguish him from rival Democrats down the road.

“People will view him from a different perspective,” Arzt said. “It definitely shows Ruben as a person who disagrees with the incumbent mayor. It show him as independent.”

While the borough president has stayed out of the limelight on the charter issue until now, his father, Bronx state Sen. Ruben Diaz Sr., has been a vocal and longtime charter-school booster.

Sure his role at the pro-charter rally has nothing to do with a potential run for mayor in 2017.

Sure.

Republicans, Hedge Fund Managers Look To Run Eva Moskowitz For Mayor On Republican Ticket

As has been speculated here at Perdido Street School blog, if Success Academies Mistress Eva Moskowitz decides to run for mayor against Bill de Blasio, it will probably be as a Republican:

GOP leaders searching for a challenger to topple Mayor de Blasio in 2017 are so excited that Democratic charter-school champion Eva Moskowitz is weighing a run that they’re open to letting her enter the race as a Republican.

“I would be very excited about Eva running for mayor. Education is a top priority for the next mayor and Eva is eminently qualified to do that. She’s outstanding,” Adele Malpass, chair of the Manhattan Republican Party, said Monday.
 
Malpass said wealthy backers of charters are prepared to bankroll a Moskowitz campaign.

Moskowitz, who, as a member of the City Council chaired the Education Committee, is the founder and CEO of the city’s largest charter network, Success Academy. She has said she’s considering taking on de Blasio, but would need GOP permission to run as a Republican.

There's little chance Moskowitz could beat de Blasio in a Democratic primary - the unions and other key Democratic Party constituencies would make sure the anti-union Moskowitz would lose that contest.

That's why she has to run as a Republican, though even there she faces an uphill battle (and is a registered Democrat to boot):

Political insiders said de Blasio would be difficult to beat in a Democratic primary dominated by minorities, left-leaning voters and unions — unless he falters and an insurgent can chip into his base.

A challenger on the GOP line faces an even more daunting task, but former Mayor Rudy Giuliani said he’s proof that a GOP fusion candidate with a reform agenda can beat the odds.

GOP county leaders can use a “Wilson Pakula” procedure under state law to allow a Democrat to run on the Republican line.

The practice has been frowned upon — particularly after two party leaders were convicted of scheming to sell the ballot line to former Democratic state Sen. Malcolm Smith.

Of course Eva could just change parties and become a Republican - hell, Mayor Mike changed parties more often than he changed tuxedos, so it's not like it hasn't been done before.

Even so, if the hedge fundies and charter school shills want to beat de Blasio in 2017, Eva isn't the best candidate to do it.

She's got baggage as head of the controversial Success Academies where diapers come as part of the school uniform (so that the kids can keep taking their practice tests instead of going to the bathroom, of course!) and she has sued to keep from being audited.

Couple the Success Academies controversies with her prickly personality and temperament (if the press thinks Bill de Blasio doesn't answer their questions, just wait until they got a load of Mayor Moskowitz gaggles) and you see how flawed she is as a candidate.

No, I actually think running charter school shill Hakeem Jeffries against de Blasio makes more strategic sense for the charter school operators.

Jeffries can eat into de Blasio's support among the black community, Mayor Bill's strongest supporters in the latest polling, while sucking up a lot of Wall Street cash and charter school donations to be able to run plenty of attack ads against de Blasio.

I suppose the charter shills could try and run Jeffries AND Moskowitz, with the idea that Jeffries softens de Blasio up in the primaries and Eva finishes him off in November, but that seems unlikely.

I think Eva, ego maniac that she is, loves the attention over whether she'll run for mayor and is using the story line to push her personal and charter school brand, but I'm skeptical that in the end she decides to actually run.

She makes an awful lot of money now as Success Academies Mistress, she and Success get limited scrutiny from media now that would change if she decided to run for mayor, and she really isn't the best pro-charter candidate to knock de Blasio off.

De Blasio could be vulnerable to a center-right pro-charter school candidate in a general election in November, but given her flaws, I don't think Eva Moskowitz is that candidate.

My money is on either Jeffries or Ruben Diaz Jr. to try and get the charter school operators and hedge fund managers to bankroll a primary challenge against de Blasio and to get a receptive audience from them, while Eva continues to make sounds like she's going to run but in the end bows out against a less controversial pro-charter figure to run in 2017.

But we'll see how it all plays out - you never know how things go in politics.

Donald Trump's massive poll lead among Republicans even as he beats up on FOX News and hedge fund managers is just the latest demonstration of that, isn't it?

NY Times: Cuomo Should "Stop Being Ridiculous," De Blasio Should Stop Overreacting To Nonsense

A scathing NY Times editorial on the bullshit story that is the Times Square topless problem:

Times Square is not going to hell, or anywhere near hell’s vicinity. Mr. de Blasio’s enemies have been predicting New York’s downfall since before the mayor took office. He should not be feeding their false narrative by panicking over some localized crudeness. Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who recently said that he thought what the women were doing was illegal and had to be stopped, and that they reminded him of the “bad old days,” should stop being ridiculous.

The Times has a long relationship with our namesake square. It’s in our backyard now, since we moved to Eighth Avenue, but it was our front porch for more than 100 years. We and the city have survived rallies and riots and many, many New Year’s ball drops. More seasoned members of our staff remember how shuttle vans used to take late-shift employees in safety from our old 43rd Street building to the Port Authority Bus Terminal and Pennsylvania Station.

Times Square can reveal New York at its bleakest and most brilliant. It took grit and resolve to stick with it through the bad times. This is not one of them.

It's a bullshit story and the Times is right to tell de Blasio to stop overreacting to the attacks.

De Blasio's foundering, the sharks are circling, shills for Hakeem Jeffries, Ruben Diaz Jr., Scott Stringer and Tish James are declaring they may primary the mayor in two years and Eva Moskowitz all but announced for mayor on the radio.

De Blasio's pushback early in the summer against Cuomo has set much of this stuff off - Cuomo's working overtime behind the scenes to do de Blasio in (see here for example.)

I dunno how he rights the ship, maybe he doesn't right the ship ever.

But it's important to point out when the attacks are unjustified - "ridiculous" in the words of the Times - and point out that the attacks are coming from pols and their shills with ulterior motives.

That doesn't mean de Blasio doesn't need to get a handle on this - he does.

The PR issue has been a problem from the beginning.

Ben Max has one idea how to handle it here. 

I'm no political expert, but I would say the mayor needs to put his head down, get to work (on time!), stop giving his enemies opportunities to nail him on stuff (i.e., stop with the unforced errors like wondering if Times Square toplessness can be solved by pulling out pedestrian plazas), focus on issues important to New Yorkers, have the friends he has left (though that group seems to be dwindling) push his message and his "successes," and watch his back as best he can.

Overreacting to the Times Square bullshit by wondering aloud if the pedestrian plazas should be pulled out was not the way to right the ship, that's for sure.