Recession Almost A "Certainty"

Must be the fault of teachers and schools:

The US economy is almost certainly headed back into a double dip recession, and economists aren't seeing it because they're using "the old rules of thumb" that don't apply this time, well-known economist David Rosenberg told CNBC.

Consumers' focus on shedding debt rather than spending will prevent the economy from growing and bring a halt to the recovery, said Rosenberg, a former Merrill Lynch economist who now works at Gluskin Sheff, an advisory firm based in Toronto.

"The risks of a double-dip recession—if we ever got out of the first one—are actually a lot higher than people are talking about right now," he said. "I think that it's almost a foregone conclusion, a virtual certainty."

Rosenberg has long been pessimistic on the economy, believing that persistently high unemployment, weak economic indicators and massive debt-cutting—deleveraging—by consumers and businesses will send the economy into a double dip.

Though many economists disagree with Rosenberg about the chance of another recession, his views are widely followed on Wall Street and have often been accurate.

Unemployment remains stubbornly high at 9.6 percent, while Friday's economic reports showed modest gains in retail spending and the consumer price index.

In addition, a slew of leading economists, from firms including Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs have been scaling back their outlook for the gross domestic product.

On Friday, Goldman raised the chance of a double-dip happening to 25-30 percent. BMO Capital Markets, in its second-half outlook released last week, said consumer weakness has been a hallmark of weak recent recoveries, but this cycle is the worst.

Robert Shiller said something similar last week about the U.S. economy sliding back into recession.

Meanwhile the Obamas spend August on vacation on the public dime.

Michelle Obama seems to think she's fucking Oprah, taking her kid and her entourage on a tour of Spain.

Then it's off to Martha's Vineyard for a week.

Lotta fucking nerve, given how bad things already are for many Americans and how much worse they are about to get.

But soon enough, Michelle, Sasha and Malia will get a permanent vacation away from the White House.

By that point, President Obama will be down in history as the 21st century Herbert Hoover.

And all four can slink back to Chicago and take all the vacations they want.