De Blasio Support Up

Not the best poll numbers around but at least the hemorrhaging has been staunched for now:

Mayor Bill de Blasio’s approval rating has improved slightly over the last three months, with 50 percent of New York City voters now saying they approve of the job he is doing and 48 percent saying they believe he deserves a second term, according to a Quinnipiac poll released Tuesday.

An Oct. 29 Quinnipiac poll showed de Blasio with a near-record low approval rating of 45 percent. At the same time, 48 percent of voters said he did not deserve a second term.

“Not great, but better news for Mayor Bill de Blasio on two key questions: His overall job approval and whether he deserves re-election. They’re both up a bit since the last time we looked,” Maurice Carroll, the poll's assistant director, said in a release accompanying the poll results.

As for potential match-ups:

According to the poll, de Blasio would Stringer, 44 percent to 33 percent. He would defeat Kelly 50 percent to 35 percent and Diaz 47 percent to 25 percent, according to the poll.

Not sure why Hakeem Jeffries wasn't part of the potential match-ups but he wasn't.

Stringer's the closest to de Blasio, but keep in mind that's without any negative stuff run against him.

This poll found that 61% haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion of him.

If Stringer decides to take Sheriff Andy up on his "Somebody run against de Blasio!" gambit, you can bet he'll have to defend his record as comptroller - including the rather poor performance of the pension funds he oversees.

That might change things in a  head-to-head match-up against a sitting mayor.

As for Diaz, over 70% don't know enough about him to form an opinion.

If he runs, you can bet the ethically-challenged history of his family will come up for notice.

So all things considered, compared to where de Blasio was a few months ago, he appears to be stabilizing things politically, at least for now, and nobody on the potential opponent list is making that big a splash in the polling.

Cuomo Approval Falls To Lowest Ever In Latest Quinnipiac Poll

Laura Nahmias at Politico NY:

Statewide, Cuomo’s approval rating has dipped to its lowest rating ever. Just 43 percent of voters across the state approve of the job he's doing. And 43 percent of voters view Cuomo unfavorably, while his favorability stands at 45 percent, the poll showed.

On particular issues:

Cuomo remains under water when it comes to key issues: 52 percent of voters give him a negative rating for his handling of ethics, 54 percent hold a negative view of his handling on education and voters are split, 40 percent to 42 percent, on his handling of the state budget.

De Blasio's fares very badly in the poll too - worse than Cuomo:

Among New York City voters, de Blasio’s unfavorability rating is higher than it is statewide. Almost half of city voters polled, 49 percent, say they have an unfavorable opinion of the mayor, while 37 percent say they hold a favorable opinion of the mayor. In August's Quinnipiac poll, 44 percent of respondents statewide disapproved of the mayor, and the same percentage approved.

Cuomo's been strutting around lately, sticking it to de Blasio time and time again, and while damage is being done to de Blasio, it's also being done to Cuomo:

Thirty-five percent of voters believe de Blasio didn’t work hard enough to win the passage of New York City-centric legislation, while 32 percent believe Cuomo sought to undermine the mayor with state lawmakers.

Voters in New York City are split, too, over blame: 39 percent believe the feud is de Blasio’s fault; 38 percent point to Cuomo.

“As government observers, voters are divided. Who’s to blame for the legislative session that left the city wish-list short? Cuomo ‘undermined’ de Blasio, says about a third of voters,” said Quinnipiac pollster Mickey Carroll. “De Blasio didn’t work hard enough, says another third. The rest don’t know – or don’t care.”

One thing's clear from the first poll we've had since Cuomo and the tabloids went on a concerted effort to destroy de Blasio - it's working.

De Blasio's favorability is at 23% with an unfavorable rating of 46% - brutal numbers.

He's got to turn those numbers around soon or he's got trouble next election.

As for Cuomo, the alpha male crap isn't helping him - but he doesn't seem able to help himself.

Also would note, the poll was taken largely after his call for a minimum wage increase, but his approval still dropped to the lowest ever in the Q poll.

More on the poll in a bit.

NYC Residents Need To Pay Cuomo Back For His Betrayal On Rent Regulations

Governor Cuomo is holding rent regulations in NYC hostage to his education tax credit giveaway to his billionaire buddy friends - no tax credit, bye-bye rent regulations.

This is not sitting well with tenant advocates who protested outside a $2500 a head Cuomo fundraiser at the Plaza Hotel:

"I'm here because of the rent," said Margie Trisbend, a 70-year-old Bronx resident. "For years, I was paying $723. Last month, it went up to $1,574. If I can't afford my rent, where am I going to go?" Trisbend was skeptical of Cuomo's commitment to renters. "He's not acting in good faith," she said. "He's acting in favor of the landlords."

Carrying banners that mocked the Governor's $1.5 million campaign donation from ethically embroiled real-estate giant Glenwood Management, the crowd stood in a pen of police barricades across from the hotel, chanting "La renta sube sube! El pueblo sufre sufre!"

In recent days, Cuomo has said that he is willing to strengthen rent protections—but only if the legislature agrees to a tax incentive that shunts public money into private schools, a plan his critics point out is especially attractive to the billionaires who donate to his campaigns at events like yesterday's.

"He wants to take money from the poor and give it to the rich," said Everett Stembridge, 57, a Harlem parent of public high school students.

"Our public schools are underfunded. We need money," said Mindy Rosa, a public school teacher. "Why should I pay for private schools, pay for charter schools, when my schools don't have our resources?"

But you have a weapon against Cuomo and his betrayals:

Jean Folkes, a 73-year-old member of the Flatbush Tenant's Association, who has lived in her neighborhood since moving to the country in 1969, wanted to speak directly to the Governor. "Cuomo, where is your humanity? Did money eat your humanity?" she asked. "We have elephant memories. We'll see to it that you lose if you run again. Enjoy your last two and a half years in Albany, if you're not indicted before then."

Yes, holding him accountable if he tries to run for re-election is one way to pay Cuomo back for his betrayal.

But three years is a long time to wait for payback - there's something NYC residents can do right now to pay back Cuomo for his betrayal.

Cuomo's poll numbers have fallen to all-time lows in all three major polls - the Siena poll, the Marist poll, and the Quinnipiac poll.

His support upstate is in the toilet, he has lukewarm support at best in the suburbs - the only thing propping him up from falling below Spitzer levels is the support he enjoys in NYC.

Cuomo's currently set to screw NYC residents by destroying tent regulations if he doesn't get his way on his education tax credit.

Isn't it time NYC residents pay the governor back by withdrawing support and sending him plummeting past the Spitzer line?

Some commenters on this blog think Cuomo doesn't care about poll numbers so long as he's got the support, both political and financial, of his wealthy donors.

I don't think that's the case

Believe me, when the headlines come that Cuomo's in the mid-to high-twenties in job approval because his NYC support has cratered, he'll be paying attention.

Nothing takes a politician closer to irrelevancy faster than poll numbers in the twenties.

That doesn't mean Cuomo won't still try and impose his preferred policies on the state if he falls below the Spitzer line.

But it's a lot harder to be successful at that when you're at 25% approval.

Cuomo Approval Has Fallen 30 Points In Quinnipiac Poll From 2012 To 2015

Quinnipiac poll out today showing Governor Cuomo's approval rating underwater:

A Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday morning found Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s approval rating continues to fall as the state government grapples with multiple ethics and corruption scandals.

Voters, meanwhile, blame the concentration of power in state government in the “three men in a room” — two of whom this year were arrested in separate corruption cases brought by U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara’s office.

The poll found 44 percent of New York voters approve of the job Cuomo is doing as governor, down from 50 percent approval shown in a March 17 survey.

...

The numbers track closely to a Siena College poll showing sagging numbers for Cuomo as well.

The trend for Cuomo is horrific:

December 2012: 74% approval 13% disapproval
May 2014: 59% approval 32% disapproval
December 2014: 58% approval 32% disapproval
March 2015: 50% approval 39% disapproval
June 2015: 44% approval 42% disapproval

Right track/wrong track numbers are pretty bad:

Very or somewhat satisfied with way things are going in New York State: 41%
Somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied with the way things are going in New York State: 58%

52% say Cuomo is part of the problem of ethics in government, 32% say he's part of the solution.

79% blame the "Three Men In A Room" governing culture in Albany either partly or fully for the corruption in state government, 11% say it's not a cause at all.

Sheriff Andy has tried to ride above the Albany cesspool and he fooled a lot of people for a long time (especially in the Q poll, which tended to have higher approval numbers for Cuomo than the other two polls), but he's not fooling too many people anymore.

Contradictory Findings On Testing, Teacher Evaluations In New Quinnipiac Poll, But Not On Charter Schools

The Quinnipiac poll out this afternoon finds New York City voters are opposed to evaluating teachers via test scores 57%-37%.

It also finds 59% of New York City voters saying that standardized tests do not accurately measure student learning while 34% say they do.

Seems New York City voters are squarely skeptical on the value and use of standardized testing.

Yet when asked "How much should these tests count in a teacher's evaluation: 100%, 75%, 50%, 25%, or not at all?", they respond:

100% - 7%
75%   - 13%
50%   - 26%
25%   - 27%
Not     - 22%

Wait - I thought NYers were opposed to evaluating teachers via test scores 57%-37%...how is it that 74% of the respondents also say that teachers should be evaluated via test scores somewhere between 25% and 100%?

A contradiction for sure. 

Similarly, when asked if students should be allowed to refuse to take the "standardized tests to measure how well they're learning", the poll finds 47% say they should be allowed to refuse, 49% say they shouldn't be allowed to refuse.

Odd, that - 59% say the tests do not accurately measure student learning, but 49% want to force students to take them anyway.

Perhaps the issue with the refusal question comes in how it's asked - the tests are described as measuring "how well students learn," though many critics of the state testing regime dispute that.

It would be interesting to see what the responses would be if the tests were either not described or if there were something along the lines of "Proponents say these tests measure how well students learn while critics say they are badly designed and show no such thing."

In any case, in many ways polling is reductionist, taking complex issues and sticking them into a few round peg responses.

The biggest value to me in polling is the trends you see with a particular politician or issue over the course of a few polls.

The testing and evaluation questions are new, so we don't have trend lines, but we do with charter schools.

On the issue of paying rent if they're co-located, here are the trend lines:

March 2014: Yes - 44%   No - 47%
Nov    2014   Yes - 50%   No - 41%
May    2015   Yes - 52%  No  - 40%

There's a clear trend here - support for making charters pay rent is up 8 points to a majority 52%, opposition to making charters pay rent is down 7 percent.  A 12 margin yes/no is pretty significant.

On raising the charter cap, here are the trend lines:

March 2014: Increase - 40% Decrease - 14% Keep the same - 39%
Nov     2014: Increase - 43% Decrease - 17% Keep the same - 31%
May     2015: Increase - 39% Decrease - 17% Keep the same - 35%

Here the trend is not so pronounced, but it is constant - there is no growing clamor for more charter schools. 

The support for increasing the number of charters is at the lowest level in the last three polls, the support for decreasing the number of charters remains where it was last time and the support for keeping things as they are is halfway between the last two poll findings.

Charter entrepreneurs and operators like to say there is a huge demand for more charters, but the last three Q polls don't show that at all.

In March 2014, 53% of NYers said they either wanted to keep the number of charters the same or decrease them while 40% said they wanted more.

In November 2014, 49% of NYers said they either wanted to keep the number of charters the same or decrease them while 43% said they wanted more.

In May 2015, 52% of NYers say they want to keep the number of charters the same or decrease them while 39% say they want more.

I hope Quinnipiac continues to ask the testing and evaluation questions over the next few years so we can see trends with those issues the way we can with charters.

What I see in the charter trend lines is growing support for making co-located charters pay their own way and no growing clamor to increase the number of charters.

Voters Sour On Andrew Cuomo

Jimmy Vielkind at Capital NY:

ALBANY—Amid voter dissatisfaction over his proposed changes to education policy, Governor Andrew Cuomo's job approval fell to 50 percent in a Quinnipiac University Poll released Wednesday morning.

...

The Siena Research Institute has measured Cuomo's job approval as underwater for months.

I've been trying to point this out for months - voters don't much like the job Cuomo is doing as governor.

While Siena has Cuomo's favorability rating at a respectable level (60% last I saw), his job approval has been, as Vielkind wrote, "underwater for months."

And yet, many in the media were ignoring the job approval numbers and leading their pieces with his favorability ratings.

As I've pointed out before, it doesn't matter if New Yorkers have a favorable opinion of Cuomo or not - it matters whether they like the job he's doing or not.

Siena has found for a while now that they do not - he's underwater in that poll.

And now Quinnipiac has him right at the watermark overall and well underwater on education.