Perdido 03

Perdido 03

Saturday, February 9, 2013

Measuring The Value Of The Weather Forecasters

I posted the weather forecasts pre-February 8 blizzard here and now I'd like to look at the results and grade them according to a value-added measurement algorithm so complex that I can't actually explain it to you but rest assured, it's fabulous and objective and the bestest thing to weather forecasting since radar.

Okay, here we go:

The city received between 6 and 12 inches, depending upon neighborhood.

Central Park received 10.4 inches, LaGuardia got 12.1, Forest Hills got 9.8, Chelsea got 7, JFK Airport got 6.4.

Fox 5's Nick Gregory called for 12-16 north and east of the city, 7-12 in the city.

Nick got that forecast just right, he's been found "highly effective" by our VAM.

WABC 7's Lee Goldberg called for 10-16 inches in the city.

Lee almost got that forecast right.  He was a little high on the upper totals and some areas of the city did not get near that 10 inch range.

Our VAM declared Lee on the lower rungs of "effective," just above "developing" - a good forecast that was off just a little bit for some areas of the city.

CBS 880's Craig Allen called for 6-12 inches in the city, said that the snow totals would be held down by hours of rain during the day.

Craig hit that forecast right on the head, he has been declared "highly effective" and in fact hit the highest rung in that rating.

Finally we come to Mike Bloomberg.

Mike forecast 4 inches of snow for the city, said he heard there was going to be a lot of rain.

There was a lot of rain, of course, but there was also a lot of snow as well - as much as 8 inches more than what Mike forecast.

As such, Mike has been declared "ineffective" by our VAM and, as this has not been his first "I-rating" (he got Sandy wrong too), he has now been slated to be fired.

Remember that state law requires two "I-ratings" in a row lead to immediate dismissal.

Thanks for playing, Mike, and good luck to you.


  1. Teachmy class MrMayorFebruary 9, 2013 at 11:26 AM

    Yeah, but could not your VAM be off by 53% or more? I mean, I live in Suffolk County, and got hit by much more. I know that he is NYC Mayor, but how is that different than the DOE saying that the shortage of PE in elementary schools is not as high as the numbers suggest, because they have regular teachers giving the students' PE (via NY1)? Making the fact that they are not being taught by a licensed PE teacher not accurate?

    Now, you will have to excuse me, I have to get ready to go to work Monday and put lesson plans together for a chemistry class. I am going to have the class experiment with combining different chemicals. I am not a licensed chemistry teacher or a lab specialist, but that doesn't really matter does it?

  2. RBE:

    That makes two ":ineffective ratings". Didn't the Mayor say that Sandy would not be as bad as Irene and that he will be willing to send City crews to other regions who were not prepared as New York City?

    Mayor Bloomberg should be going to his 3020-a hearing within 60 days and be terminated.