Perdido 03

Perdido 03

Monday, March 24, 2014

Poll Shows Cuomo Would Be Vulnerable To Third Party Candidate

Not enough to knock him off, but maybe enough to ruin Sheriff Andy's plans for a big 2014 re-election victory to set him up for a 2016 presidential run:

A wealthy Democratic activist commissioned a poll that shows a third-party leftist candidate could eat into what Gov. Cuomo is hoping will be a commanding victory this year.

The fact the poll was even commissioned is another sign that Cuomo's biggest troubles in his re-election year could come from the progressive base of his own Democratic party.

"The unrest is just huge against Andrew," said the man who ordered the poll, Bill Samuels, founder of the progressive activist group EffectiveNY.

The poll done by California-based David Binder Research of 700 likely voters shows Cuomo is still popular, with 58% viewing him favorably and 30% unfavorably.

It also found that Cuomo in a three-way race against Republican Rob Astorino and a Working Families Party candidate would still win easily. But the governor's overall vote tally would be closer to 50% rather than the 60% or higher total those close to him say he wants.

"This poll shows there's a danger of Cuomo's national reputation being badly damaged if there is a third-party candidate," said Samuels, who supported Cuomo in 2010 but has since become a critic. He has not ruled out a run for governor on a minor line if another candidate doesn't step forward.

Last time around, the Working Families Party needed Cuomo's help to generate the 50,000 votes they needed to maintain a ballot line. 

The Daily New Ken Lovett article says this time around, they can do it with a third party candidate:

The union-backed Working Families Party has discussed the possibility of recruiting its own candidate. The poll indicates that the party would be in a position to grab the necessary 50,000 to keep its automatic ballot access without Cuomo.

“(Team Cuomo) made the political calculation that downstate and urban voters have nowhere to go,” said one disgruntled activist. "But it's politics 101: when you're running for reelection, you rev the base up. You have to throw them some red meat."

I'm a little skeptical that when all is said and done, a third party candidate from the left can take 10% of the vote.

But it sure would be fun to see someone try.

More Cuomo poll news later from Siena.

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