Perdido 03

Perdido 03

Tuesday, June 25, 2013

Weiner Leaps To First Place In WSJ-NBC News/Marist Poll

I was expecting this:

Two years after Weiner torpedoed his political career by sharing lewd pictures of himself online and then lying about it, the former congressman now leads Quinn 25% to 20% among the city's registered Democrats.

After largely disappearing from the public grid after the scandal, Weiner started sending up trial balloons this spring.

He officially launched a bid for the mayoralty in late May, putting out a video in which he asked New Yorkers to give him a second chance after making "big mistakes" he deeply regretted.

Quinn, the City Council speaker, has long led the packed field of contenders from any party.

The new survey shows Quinn, whose frontrunner status has long made her the target of teardown attempts by her foes, still ahead of former Comptroller and 2009 Democratic mayoral nominee Bill Thompson, who polled at 13%, followed by Public Advocate Bill de Blasio at 10% and current Comptroller John Liu at 8% support.

“The race has been scrambled by Weiner’s candidacy,” Marist pollster Lee Miringoff told the Journal.
“Weiner’s candidacy has gotten more acceptable to voters since he announced, (and) Quinn’s having a difficult time reversing what has been a slow but steady decline in her numbers,” he continued.

There was a reason Quinn went negative on Weiner last week, and this was it.

Her private polling was telling her she was falling into second place.

She's had a very rough time of it since February and I am starting to think she may not make a runoff at all.

In fact, the runoff may be between Weiner and Thompson.

Notice Thompson picked up a few points in this poll while de Blasio remains mired at 10%.

Thompson's just seven points from Quinn.

Thompson picked up the UFT endorsement and more endorsements from politicians last week.

Weiner's a paper tiger front runner, the way Quinn was, and his rise to the top could turn just as quickly if something damaging comes out about him and his past.

If I were Quinn, I would want to get some of that opposition research she's sitting on about Weiner out before Thompson passes her and she falls into third place.

If Thompson's support is being undercounted in these official polls, as Errol Louis suggested often happens with minority candidates, he could actually be a lot closer to second place than anybody thinks.

Remember how close Thompson was to first place in 2009?

Or perhaps I should say that if Thompson's support is being undercounted, Quinn could a lot closer to third place than she is to first place.

It's going to be an interesting summer.

In case there was any doubt about Quinn's diminished frontrunner status, that's been put to rest by this poll as well as her going negative on Weiner last week.

Expect some shots at Weiner now that he's placed first in at least one public poll.

And if I were Quinn, I would unload on him before August to take some of the gloss off those poll numbers.

Maybe it's time to ask NYC residents how they feel about Weiner sexting with a 17 year old?

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