Perdido 03

Perdido 03

Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Even Without Weiner In The Race, Quinn's Support Drops

The NY Post is hawking a Marist poll that shows Anthony Weiner garnering 15% of the Democratic primary vote, second only to Christine Quinn (26%), and sucking up all the excess oxygen in the race from her rivals, Thompson, Liu and de Blasio.

But I think the headline is actually this:

The other salient finding is that front-runner Quinn’s support has dropped considerably amid a torrent of criticism from her rivals. Without Weiner in the mix, Quinn gets 30 percent support, down from 37 percent in February.

 Here are the numbers without Weiner:
  • 30% Christine Quinn
  • 15% Bill de Blasio
  • 14% Bill Thompson
  • 11% John Liu
  •   2% Sal Albanese
  •   2% Other
  • 26% Undecided
 If Weiner runs, it will only be as an exercise in ego.  He cannot win with these kinds of numbers:

Only 40 percent of registered Dems want Weiner to run for mayor, while 46 percent do not. Another 14 percent aren’t sure. But Weiner’s numbers have dramatically improved since last October, when only 28 percent of Democrats wanted him to run, and a resounding 57 percent did not, with 14 percent unsure.


And the insider dismissed Weiner as too toxic to win the nomination.

“Weiner’s support is well below his pre-scandal levels, and nearly half of Democrats do not even want Weiner to run. With near 100% name recognition, he has little room to grow, unlike de Blasio,” the source said.

So much to like here.  Quinn has been getting hammered in the news, getting hammered in TV ads, getting hammered on the street with her personal protesters following her, and her support is dropping hard.

And unless Weiner decides to run a losing campaign, I don't think he gets in.

As the political insider tells the Post, if Weiner gets in the race he has a hard time winning because he's already hit his ceiling in terms of support.

It's true that he could try and make the runoff with Quinn, but all he really does by running is make Quinn the nominee.

Now maybe that's his goal (and with his close relationship to Wall Street and Schumer, you never know...don't underestimate the machinations of the moneyed class.)

But if actually he wants to run and compete for something, the mayor's race ain't it.

One other thing - only 38% are paying close attention to the race and there is some real room to grow for de Blasio, Thompson and Liu.

So what I take from this poll is that Quinn is dropping and there is going to be panic within her campaign over this.

The race is on.

1 comment:

  1. Perdido Street, please research the following former Governor of New York/New Jersey during the pre colonial period. Edward Hyde, 3rd Earl of Clarendon, Viscount Combury. This English blue blood ran things from 1701 to 1705. He was involved in bribes and plundering the treasury. His photo is also available at the N.Y. Histrorical Society. I ask that you research and compare him to one of the candidates currently running for the mayors office.