CHART: VOTING SHIFTS FROM 2010 TO 2013
slate votes only * remainders are split ballots
MORE 1,140 703 for ICE/TJC
New Action 534 978
Unity 5,111 7,761
Middle School Division
MORE 398 248 for ICE/TJC
New Action 161 421
Unity 1,185 1,981
High School Division
MORE 1,430 1,369 for ICE/TJC
New Action 452 774
Unity 1,592 2,595
Functional Division (non-teachers)
MORE 951 708 for ICE/TJC
New Action 754 1,175
Unity 5,167 7,337
MORE 1,490 1,037 for ICE/TJC
New Action 1,880 2,234
Unity 18,155 20,744
Looking at these numbers, we can see that Unity lost 9,208 votes in 2013 from their 2010 tally, while New Action lost 1,801 votes from 2010.
The two UFT leadership parties lost 11,009 votes between them in 2013 from their 2010 tallies.
MORE, on the other hand, gained 1,344 votes from the ICE-TJC totals in 2010.
That's nowhere near enough to knock off the leadership parties, of course, but it is a positive trajectory for MORE that can be built upon in the next election.
And as I keep reminding people, MORE will have one inherent advantage next time around that Unity and New Action will not have - the MORE people didn't sign off on APPR, Danielson, and growth models as the current UFT leadership as run by Michael Mulgrew has.
Let's see how people feel about the leadership of the UFT after three years of APPR, Danielson and the mass "ineffective" ratings that are sure to sweep the system after John King imposes his own evaluation apparatus onto us (with Michael Mulgrew's support, to boot!)
There were 10,000 fewer votes returned in the 2013 election than in the 2010 election.
As you can see from the above analysis, those 10,000 votes came out of the Unity/New Action totals.
MORE has much room for growth and will need almost all of that to actually make a serious attempt at knocking Mulgrew and his Unity/New Action cronies off next time around.
With the advantage Mulgrew has with the retirees and the functionals (both reliable Unity voting blocs), he starts with a significant vote tally over the MORE candidate.
In 2013, Unity got 23,322 from the retirees and functionals alone on the Unity ballot line. Add in the New Action ballot line totals for retirees and functionals (2,632) and you can see that Mulgrew started with 25,956 votes in his pocket before we even get to the elementary school totals.
The MORE candidate in 2016 will have to pick up a lot of support from active members to counter that advantage as well as try and turn some of those New Action/Unity votes into MORE votes.
That said, 75% of all UFT members this year did not vote.
There are plenty of opportunities for growth from that segment of what Norm Scott calls the Did Not Give A Crap vote and after three years of APPR, Danielson, and the mass "ineffective" ratings that are sure to sweep the system after John King imposes his own evaluation apparatus onto us, it's difficult to see those people, if they do vote, voting for either New Action or Unity.
So there is much to be feeling positive about here.
The news media, such as it is, may frame the Unity win as Mulgrew "cruising to reelection" (as Gotham Schools did yesterday), but an analysis of the numbers shows this was no easy cruise for Mulgrew and his Unity/New Action cronies in 2013 - not with a loss of over 10,000 votes from their 2010 tallies.
We have some difficult times ahead of us, with APPR and Danieslon and VAM and growth models and all the other ed deforms that are going to be used to bludgeon teachers and fire them.
Unless the UFT leadership changes course and starts defending teachers both individually and collectively from these ravages, 2016 is going to be a much different year than 2013 or 2010 for Mulgrew and his Unity/New Action cronies.