Mayoral hopeful Anthony Weiner's clinging to a razor-thin Democratic primary win in the latest Quinnipiac University poll -- but he'd fall to Bill Thompson in a two-man runoff.
If the former congressman stays in the race, he gets 26% support from likely voters in the Democratic primary, followed by City Council Speaker Christine Quinn at 22% and Thompson, the ex-controller, at 20%.
But -- and here's the news -- if it goes to a runoff, Thompson handily trumps Weiner 52% to 41% and beats Quinn 51% to 42%.
If Weiner and Quinn ended up in a second-round faceoff, Quinnipiac -- which concluded the four-day poll on Tuesday, when Weiner was forced to cop to engaging in more sextcapades after quitting Congress -- sets it at a statistical tie -- 46% for Quinn and 44% for Weiner.
Should Weiner drop of out the race, the poll finds Quinn would capture 30% of the primary vote, followed by Thompson at 26%, Public Advocate Bill de Blasio at 21% and Controller John Liu at 10%.
As I have written before, even if this second sexting scandal had not arisen for Weiner, he still wasn't coming out of a runoff a victor - his negatives are just too damned high.
Whoever faced him in the runoff would have beaten him - even Quinn.
But with the sexting revelations of yesterday, it is quite possible he will fall into third place behind Quinn and Thompson, missing the runoff completely.
We'll see - New Yorkers have been a forgiving group, but this second round of sexting news will no doubt do damage as it becomes clear to many people that Weiner is an addict suffering from compulsion, delusion and denial.
If you're Joe Williams at DFER central, you're rethinking the propaganda piece you wrote last week for the Daily News about Thompson and the UFT.
With Weiner wounded, possibly fatally wounded, the UFT endorsement of Thompson, along with the union money and GOTV effort, will matter greatly - especially if Thompson makes it to the runoff against Quinn.
Judging from the numbers in this latest Quinnipiac poll, unless something changes greatly in the next 46 days (always a possibility in this crazy political year), Bill Thompson could very well be the next mayor of New York City.