There's almost no doubt at this point that there will be a runoff for the Democratic mayoral nomination.
Howard Dean, who is supporting Bill de Blasio, thinks it's even simpler than that: "There’s going to be a runoff and Anthony Weiner is going to be in that runoff," he said, at a de Blasio fund-raiser last night. "And he’s going to lose that runoff. So what this is is a race to see who gets in the runoff with Anthony, that’s how it’s going to work."
Paybarah goes on say that just because Thompson isn't making any moves in the public polls right now doesn't mean he won't be in the runoff with Weiner.
He point out that Thompson was undercounted in 2009 by public polls and he's probably being undercounted by those same polls in 2013.
He points out that Thompson still may roll out some big endorsements (Times? Sharpton?)
He says watch where Thompson is after the TV ads start and count him out now at your own peril.
I think he's right about this.
I'm not ready to panic just yet that we're looking at Quinn/Weiner to take on Lhota.
If this is what the polls look like in early September, then maybe.
But there's still a lot of time left in this and the general public is only going to start paying attention to this stuff closely right about now.