Perdido 03

Perdido 03

Thursday, August 15, 2013

Is De Blasio's Momentum For Real?

Bill de Blasio vaulted from fourth place in the last Quinnipac poll to first place in the Q poll released this week.

He had been generating some good press prior to the poll release and getting some good notice for his first campaign ad, which featured his 15 year old son, Dante.

But there are some who are questioning the leap in support de Blasio made in the Quinnipiac poll and wondering if he really has the kind of momentum the poll indicates.

Tonight we get a new Marist/WSJ/NBC 4 poll.

While polling methodologies differ from poll to poll and it is unwise to compare findings from one pollster to another, we should be able to compare trends when the Marist poll is released at 6 PM tonight.

Does de Blasio show momentum in the poll?

Does Thompson?

Is Quinn still stuck in the mid-twenties?

What do the runoff match-ups look like?

I've seen some on Twitter say that these polls mean nothing, it's still mid-August, the only polls you should take seriously are the ones in September before Primary Day.

In the past, that might have been true.

But with the Weiner Circus focusing attention to the mayor's race, I think these mid-August polls can be taken as a decent indication of where the race stands.

Ads have been running too, with Quinn up with her ads for weeks now.

That she hasn't moved the needle in most of the polls since she went up with her ads certainly is an indication of something.

We have 26 days until the primary.

26 days until we learn who will be in a runoff to take on the GOP nominee.

Barring something unforeseen, the parameters of the race seem set.

Thompson and de Blasio are battling it out to be the one to take on Quinn in the runoff, with an outside chance that both de Blasio and Thompson beat Quinn on Primary Day and knock her out of the runoff completely.

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