Perdido 03

Perdido 03

Friday, August 30, 2013

Three Polls Show De Blasio In The Lead

First Quinnipiac had de Blasio at 36%, Quinn 21%, Thompson 20%.

Now the Times/Siena poll has de Blasio at 32%, Thompson at 18%, Quinn at 17%

And an AM New York/News 12 poll finds de Blaiso leading with 29%, Thompson in second at 24%, Quinn in third with 17%.

With 11 days to go, here is how the AM New York/News 12 pollster sees the race:

"It's a momentum game," pollster Mike Berland said. "Clearly, de Blasio has momentum up, Quinn has momentum down and Thompson just hangs in there."

The Times/Siena poll is significant because that had been very much "Quinn's poll."

The last time that poll was released in early August, she was leading the race with 25%, Thompson had 16%, de Blasio was in third with 14%.

Quinn has lost eight points in that poll, Thompson has picked up just two points since the first week of August.

De Blasio is up 18 points since the last time that poll was taken (August 2-7).

With just 11 days to go, it becomes very difficult for Quinn to turn this slide around.

Her only hope is to beat out Thompson for second place, hope de Blasio is held under 40% and work it as hard as she can in a runoff.

As for Thompson, only the AM New York/News 12 poll shows him in any striking distance to de Blasio.

In the rest, he's as big an also-ran as Quinn.

The problem seems to be that many black voters are not all that enamored of him:

Mr. de Blasio, who has brought his African-American wife to campaign stops and featured their biracial son in his television commercials, has managed to pull off an unusual feat: winning slightly more support from black voters than the sole black candidate in the race, Mr. Thompson, although the gap is within the poll’s margin of sampling error. 

Quinnipiac also showed de Blasio leading with black voters.

Thompson has been arrogant throughout the campaign when it came to black voter supporter.

He has assumed that because he is the only black candidate in the race, black voters will naturally vote for him on Primary Day.

Polls since July have disabused him of that arrogance.

His stance on stop-and-frisk - he was for the policy before he was against it - has been toxic to him, which is why he has tried to aggressively turn the page on his waffling on the issue and say he is forcefully against it.

That change in heart has not worked with many black voters, however - they're not buying him on it.

Meanwhile de Blaiso has been aggressive in his criticism of the policy and has been helped with his ads showing his biracial family.

If Thompson cannot win a bigger proportion of black voters, he is in trouble.

Like Quinn, he has to hope he can come in second in the race in 11 days, hope de Blasio is under 40% and then work it hard in the runoff.

We'll see how this goes - 11 days is an eternity and the plutocrats in this city seem to be very, very upset that de Blasio is in the lead.

We'll have to see what they do over that.


  1. To quote the obnoxious David Spade flight attendant character.....BUH-BYE!!!

    1. Quinn is finished, yes. Barring something unforeseen, Thompson looks to be in trouble too. But 11 days is a long time - also, if there is a runoff, add another 14 days. Then there is the general election when the plutocrats will be pulling for Lhota. No, we still have a long way to go yet.

    2. Doesn't Lhota get defeated by any of the three?

      If de Blasio has a chance, especially here on SI, he has to hammer his (Lhota's) record as MTA president. He allowed the toll hikes to happen and for outsiders it is now $15 to enter Traffic Island.

      I await your reply and enjoy your last days of fun and frolic.

  2. I now believe that DeBlasio will come in first and Thompson second which will set off a mad frenzy of a runoff. I can envision Quinn and the big money backers supporting Thompson and the UFT will go all out. Never ever underestimate the power of the money people as Spitzer's decline can be attributed to the non stop adds for Scott Stringer. Such will be the case for Thompson when he faces a runoff with DeBlasio.