Today, Quinnipiac shows us why:
When Quinnipiac University surveyed the field two weeks ago, they found ex-Gov. Eliot Spitzer with a dominating 19-point lead over Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer. Well, things have changed a little bit in their latest poll.
Mr. Stringer and Mr. Sptizer are now tied with 46 percent of the vote each among likely Democratic voters.
If the Quinnipiac poll is anywhere near accurate, Spitzer's got problems.
Stringer has all the unions locked up, the party establishment.
Those are guaranteed Stringer votes - the party establishment and the unions are going to use their GOTV operations to get their voters to the polls.
Spitzer, meanwhile, was polling very well in the past, but he's got to get those supporters to the polls himself.
If the race is near tied going in to Primary Day, I would give Stringer the edge in winning the race.
Spitzer, by reaching out to the UFT yesterday, is hoping to persuade them from dropping a couple hundred grand in negative ads on him next week.
Doubt the strategy is going to work.
Mulgrew seems to despise Spitzer almost as much as he despises the UFT rank and file.
But we'll see.
This election cycle gets more and more interesting, doesn't it?
First Quinn is the presumptive nominee, then Weiner enters and shakes things up,Weiner actually goes ahead in the race before imploding in scandal, De Blasio grabs the lead but he's got to bring it on home in the next 12 days.
In the comptroller's race, Stringer looked like a shoe-in before Spitzer saw Weiner polling so well and decided to enter the race half a week before the deadline to file. Spitzer goes ahead big in the polls, horrifying the establishment and the corporate press, but now, suddenly the race is tied again.
What a year.
I suspect we will have more surprises in both the mayor's race and the comptroller's race before this is all over.
UPDATE: An AM New York/News 12 poll finds the race in a statistical tie too:
Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer and former Gov. Eliot Spitzer are locked in a virtual dead heat in the Democratic primary race for New York City comptroller, with Stringer beating Spitzer 2-to-1 among white voters, according to an amNewYork-News 12 poll results released Thursday.
Spitzer has 46 percent support among Democrats likely to vote in the Sept. 10 primary while Stringer with 43 percent support, the poll conducted by Penn Schoen Berland shows. Ten percent of voters were undecided.
Stringer has a distinct edge among white voters, 65 percent support compared to Spitzer’s 29 percent, the poll shows.
“I don’t think this is pro-Stringer. This is all anti-Spitzer,” said pollster Mike Berland. “I think we're seeing the whites rejecting Spitzer.”
Spitzer still has an advantage among black voters, 59 percent to Stringer’s 25 percent.
Spitzer's in trouble.
Stringer's got the unions walking voters to the polls for him.
Spitzer's got to get them there himself.
Maybe he can use the strategy these two BOE candidates in Alabama used to get out the vote?